We had a feeling that trades would heat up as the start of the 2021 NHL draft approached, and heat up they have.
In a continuation of his offseason blue-line makeover, Philadelphia Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher traded the No. 14 overall pick in the 2021 draft, defenseman Robert Hagg and a 2023 second-round pick to the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen.
In addition to giving the Sabres an additional first-round pick, it also provides some additional cap space for Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams. How did both GMs do in the swap? Here are our grades for each club:
I mean, they just pulled the 14th overall pick, a second-rounder in 2023 and a serviceable NHL defenseman for a player that had been an unmitigated analytics disaster with one year left on his contract before unrestricted free agency. If Hagg was slightly better or the pick was slightly higher, we might be in A-plus territory.
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Consider that Ristolainen was done with Buffalo when his contract was up. “I can’t go for another rebuild or wait multiple years. We have to get to the playoffs next year, and for me it’s either here or hopefully then somewhere else,” Ristolainen said after the season, fully knowing that the Sabres probably are not a playoff team in the East next season.
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Consider that GM Kevyn Adams had been shopping Ristolainen for months, after he was seemingly on the trading block for years in Buffalo. His ask was apparently a first-round pick and a roster player, at a minimum. He played the waiting game and found the Flyers willing to move their No. 14 pick — which is technically the 13th player, as the Arizona Coyotes forfeited their first-rounder this year (but will pick ninth thanks to another Friday trade). That was reportedly higher than any other offer.
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Consider that with the 14th overall pick, the Sabres can follow their presumed selection of Michigan defenseman Owen Power with the first overall pick with a second first-round caliber player. The organization’s biggest need is a franchise goaltender. There are two expected to go in the first round on Friday night in Jesper Wallstedt of the Swedish Hockey League and Sebastian Cossa of the Western Hockey League. If neither of them fall to No. 14, the Sabres now have the pick and additional assets to move up. Or they could stay at No. 14 and have a shot at centers Cole Sillinger, Chaz Lucius or Fyodor Svechkov; or fast-rising offensive winger in Matthew Coronato.
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Consider that the Sabres only got the 31st overall pick in the Ryan O’Reilly trade. Quite a win here.
This is one of those grades that looks harsh at first glance. Trust me when I say that compared to other evaluations of this trade, it’s like I put a gold star and a smiley face sticker on top of the Flyers’ quiz.
Let’s start by saying that Ristolainen has been an absolute analytics disaster for the Sabres over the course of multiple seasons. Since 2017-18, Ristolainen has added just 1.2 wins and 6.5 goals scored above average to the Sabres, via Evolving Hockey. This was the evaluation from data guru Micah Blake McCurdy:
Rasmus Ristolainen (traded to Philadelphia) is somewhat or very (mostly very) bad at every aspect of the game of ice hockey. pic.twitter.com/epVYASEHR7
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) July 23, 2021
Here’s how GM Chuck Fletcher answered that criticism:
“I think it’s all context and what he was asked to do. He played a lot of minutes. He had a rotating cast of partners and coaches. Buffalo’s clearly a team that’s been developing and has had a lot of turnover the last few years. We believe that we have a really good mix of defensemen now, a good veteran team and a stability in our back end. Any time players are slotted in the right role, with the right mix of players around them, they have a much better chance to improve and look better. So we’re banking on that.”
Translation: Buffalo stinks and has stunk, the Flyers do not and hence you can expect a statistical turnaround for the player.
There could be something to that, theoretically. Ristolainen said himself that playing an unending series of losing seasons impacted him professionally. He’s not the first person to leave Buffalo having said that. We’re not saying that he’s going to have a “Sabres to Conn Smythe” renaissance like Ryan O’Reilly did when he was traded to St. Louis. But it’s not outrageous to believe a change in scenery and stability could positively impact Ristolainen.
There’s a logistical argument here for the trade. If Ivan Provorov plays with newly acquired Ryan Ellis on the team’s top pairing — which has to be the expectation, as Ellis replicates what Matt Niskanen gave the young defenseman as a partner before his retirement — then Ristolainen slots in on the right side with Travis Sanheim, which should help the 25-year-old defenseman. Sanheim had a revolving door of partners last season, and suffered for it. Ristolainen gives him a defenseman who has good size and plays with physicality.
If it sounds like we’re trying to talk ourselves into believing the Flyers didn’t do poorly here, let’s just bring it back to reality: They sent a first-round pick — and one that could net them a considerable player in a deeper draft than many believed it could be — for a “hey, maybe” defenseman who has one year left on his contract. Fletcher indicated that he wanted to keep Ristolainen beyond this season, but then cautioned that nothing’s guaranteed under a flat salary cap.
The Flyers are very much a “win now” team. But a first-round pick and a future second-rounder for potentially one year of a defenseman whose underlying numbers are this bad is really hard to defend in the moment.
The real winner of this trade? The Columbus Blue Jackets. Seth Jones makes the same money against the cap ($5.4 million) as Ristolainen. So what the heck is one year of him worth now?