The most interesting unknown entering the 2020 NFL draft might be whether the Miami Dolphins will select Oregon’s Justin Herbert or Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa with their No. 5 pick if both are available. The man who will make that call — Dolphins general manager Chris Grier — isn’t showing his cards, but Thursday he highlighted his thoughts on both prospects.
“They’re both interesting kids. I’ve gotten to know both of them through this process. They’re really good people,” Grier said during his pre-draft teleconference. “They’re both very talented players. Both have won a lot of games. They’re both intelligent players and winners.”
The Dolphins are expected to take a quarterback in Round 1 of this draft, and they’ve done extensive homework on each of the top QBs, including Herbert and Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have an NFL-high three first-round picks and 14 total selections, but it appears unlikely they will have a shot at LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. So the attention goes back to Herbert vs. Tagovailoa.
One of the underlying factors of the Dolphins’ decision is how they feel about taking a chance on Tagovailoa because of his hip injury and questions about his long-term durability. Grier said the team has “an analytics department that does injury predictions” on every player including Tagovailoa, but he noted that sometimes talent can supersede the injury risk.
“Historically, it’s all over the place,” Grier said. “I’d say for us, you always weigh talent; you talk about the kid, the person, the work ethic. And then you do look at the injuries; you take in the factor of the position he plays and such. So for us, every decision has got to be weighed with that. I’ve been around great people, players like Jake Long — who was unbelievable but unfortunately the injury bug caught him. Curtis Martin, nobody would have guessed he was going to be a Hall of Famer. We thought he was a great football player [in college] and he was hurt all the time. Ended up a Hall of Fame career basically never missing time.
“You just never know. You factor in all that stuff, but we’ll make a good decision for us in terms of what we think is best for the Dolphins.”
Dolphins athletic trainer Kyle Johnston and team doctors do studies on the probabilities of players like Tagovailoa getting injured, and Grier said they have done a “fantastic job,” but he noted that some of the injury evaluation is unpredictable.
Grier said the Dolphins’ final draft board isn’t set yet, noting that it will likely be done Monday or Tuesday, but “we have an idea of who we like.”
Whether it ends up being Tagovailoa, Herbert or even Utah State’s Jordan Love, Grier said they’re going to do what’s best for the Dolphins, and he hopes the team’s passionate fans “have some trust in what we’re doing.” There’s just one week left until we find out.