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Turron Davenport, ESPN
With three weeks left in the 2024 season, the race for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player is hitting its final stretch. That means now is a good time to take a look at the leading candidates heading into the last few weeks.
We asked 14 analysts — Matt Bowen, Dan Graziano, Kalyn Kahler, Matt Miller, Dan Orlovsky, Jason Reid, Jordan Reid, Aaron Schatz, Ben Solak, Mike Tannenbaum, Lindsey Thiry, Seth Walder, Field Yates and myself — to vote on the top players in the MVP race through 15 weeks. We then used those 13 sets of rankings to compile our consensus top-five contenders.
The MVP award has gone to quarterbacks each of the past 11 seasons, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that signal-callers lead the way at this point. But the biggest surprise might be who is in front this time around. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has reigned supreme atop our list this season, but Bills quarterback Josh Allen turned heads and swayed odds with his season-high 362-yard performance against Detroit on Sunday. Two star quarterbacks and a dynamic running back round out our list.
Does the only non-QB on our list have what it takes to win the MVP award? Whose stock is falling after 15 weeks of play? And whose stock is rising? We answer those big questions and look at the top candidates, plus three players who just missed the cut after Week 15.
All odds are via ESPN BET.
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Top five | Who just missed?
Stock up | Stock down
One big question
Current odds: -900
2024 stats: 3,395 passing yards, 25 TDs, 5 INTs, 79.3 QBR (484 rushing yards, 11 TDs)
Allen has made a strong case for himself with consecutive 300-yard passing performances and five total passing touchdowns over the past two games. The dual-threat quarterback also rushed for 150 total yards and five touchdowns in that span, becoming the first player in NFL history to record multiple passing touchdowns and rushing scores in back-to-back games.
The expectation was for Allen to take a step back after Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs to the Texans and free agent Gabe Davis signed with the Jaguars. But he hasn’t missed a beat and is on pace for a career low in interceptions. Allen has been a consistent force even though starters Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman missed a combined five games in November. He leads the league in QBR and ranks top 10 in passing yards, yards per attempt (8.0), sacks (13) and touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Current odds: +650
2024 stats: 3,580 passing yards, 34 TDs, 3 INTs, 76.1 QBR (743 rushing yards, 3 TDs)
It’s hard not to include Jackson at the top of the list because of how much the Ravens’ offense revolves around him. Sure, Derrick Henry‘s 1,474 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns are impressive. But Jackson’s influence can’t be overlooked because defenses have to use an extra defender to account for his dynamic rushing ability.
He continues to destroy accusations that he isn’t an elite passer despite playing without a premier receiver — 29-year-old Mark Andrews leads the team with eight touchdown catches. With 34 passing touchdowns, he trails only Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (36). Jackson’s five passing touchdowns in Baltimore’s Week 15 win against the Giants tied a season high.
Two of the Ravens’ final three games come against AFC North opponents — Pittsburgh and Cleveland. He will have a good opportunity to strengthen his MVP case if he can help Baltimore pass the 10-4 Steelers for the divisional title.
Current odds: +1500
2024 stats: 1,688 rushing yards, 11 TDs (276 receiving yards, 2 TDs)
MVP awards don’t usually go to non-quarterbacks unless another position player has a super season. That’s exactly what Barkley has done so far. His 1,688 rushing yards through 14 games has him on pace to become the ninth running back to gain 2,000-plus yards in a season.
That could give him a legitimate case for MVP. Adrian Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards in 2012 and won the award that season. However, Derrick Henry’s 2,027 rushing yards in 2020 weren’t enough to win him the award.
The Eagles decided to have their offense revolve around Barkley after starting the year with a 2-2 record. That decision has resulted in a 10-game win streak and an NFL-best 186.2 rushing yards per game. Barkley’s 255 rushing yards in a Week 12 prime-time game against the Rams vaulted him into serious MVP consideration.
Current odds: +2200
2024 stats: 3,759 passing yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs, 65.6 QBR (60 rushing yards)
Goff was once considered to be a throw-in for the trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams. Now, he’s at the center of one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL. He ranks second in passing yards, fourth in touchdown passes and fifth in completions (314) and first-down passes (191). Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has maximized Goff’s ability by featuring more play-action passing. The results are clear: He has thrown for 1,396 yards on under-center play-action passes this season, 255 more than the next closest quarterback, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
Although Goff lost the head-to-head battle with Allen this past weekend, it’s hard to overlook 494 passing yards, five passing touchdowns and no interceptions. Goff has an uphill battle, but he’ll have a chance to leapfrog the others in this race if he has a strong performance against the Packers in the season finale.
Current odds: +10000
2024 stats: 3,348 passing yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs, 64.6 QBR (262 rushing yards, 1 TD)
Mahomes has not turned in the stats we’re accustomed to seeing. He probably won’t finish with 4,000 passing yards for the first time since he became a starter in 2018, and he has already taken the most sacks of his career (35).
But it’s simply not possible to have an MVP discussion without him. The Chiefs don’t have an abundance of targets for Mahomes to rely on — wide receiver Hollywood Brown hasn’t played a single game because of a shoulder injury, Rashee Rice suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 4 and running back Isiah Pacheco missed 11 weeks with a broken leg. But that hasn’t kept Mahomes from willing Kansas City to an NFL-best 13-1 record.
The Chiefs have big games coming up against the Texans, Steelers and Browns, though a high ankle sprain might keep him from statistically making a case for his third MVP. If he can work his magic and secure the top seed in the AFC, he should warrant consideration.
Just missed
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+8000)
Burrow leads the NFL in completions (361), passing yards (3,977) and passing touchdowns (36). He’s doing his part, but the Bengals’ defense has come up short. At 6-8, Cincinnati is just outside the playoff bubble. No one would want to face the Bengals if Burrow goes on a hot streak and gets his team into the playoffs.
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+10000)
Darnold has experienced a career resurgence in Minnesota. He’s posting career bests in almost every statistical category, including passing yards (3,530), completion percentage (67.6), touchdown passes (29) and QBR (60.2). He has the Vikings at 12-2 and tied with the Lions for the NFC North lead.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (+40000)
It’s rare for a rookie to be in the running for MVP, but Daniels didn’t miss a beat when he landed with the Commanders. He has taken the NFL by storm with his dual-threat ability. He’s top 15 in passing yards (3,045), passing touchdowns (17) and completion percentage (70.5). And he’s second among quarterbacks in rushing yards (656) and third in touchdowns (six).
Washington got off to a 7-2 start before a three-game losing streak knocked it back to reality, but it should still secure a wild-card bid.
Also received top-10 votes: Steelers LB T.J. Watt, Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, Rams QB Matthew Stafford, Ravens RB Derrick Henry, Texans QB C.J. Stroud, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, Packers QB Jordan Love, Broncos CB Pat Surtain II, Rams WR Puka Nacua, Chargers QB Justin Herbert, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, Texans WR Nico Collins, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray
Whose stock is up after 15 weeks?
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: He has pulled away from the group and is now a legitimate threat to be a triple crown winner. Only Steve Smith Sr. (2005) and Cooper Kupp (2021) have league-high season totals in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns over the past 20 seasons. Chase’s surge started with his three-touchdown, 264-yard performance against Baltimore in Week 10. In the past five games, he has grabbed an NFL-best eight touchdowns.
Whose stock is down after 15 weeks?
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: He had high expectations in his first season under coach Jim Harbaugh. But the Chargers have lost three of their past five games and are slipping to the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. Herbert has passed for more than 200 yards in only three of the past five games, and he had a costly third-quarter interception in Week 15 that helped the Buccaneers secure a 40-17 win.
Is there any way that Barkley can finish strong enough to beat out the QBs?
No. Although Barkley is headed for a 2,000-yard rushing season, only four of eight running backs who reached that mark won the MVP. The award has become slanted more toward quarterbacks, as only one running back has won over the past 15 years (Adrian Peterson in 2012). Even though the Eagles have relied on Barkley throughout their 10-game win streak, the award will likely go to a quarterback.