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Andre Snellings, ESPN
Today is almost certainly the last four-game day of the NBA season, since series will have ended before next weekend’s slate. One series could end as soon as today, with the Timberwolves carrying a 3-0 series lead into Game 4 in Phoenix.
All three other series are 2-1, though both the Pacers and Mavericks have already won a road game in their series and can consolidate their home court advantage with wins on Sunday. The Knicks and 76ers are the only Sunday series where the home team is undefeated, and every game has been intensely competitive so far.
On this last four-game slate of the season, let’s dig further into the matchups and find some angles of interest.
Tyrese Maxey OVER 25.5 points (-120). Amidst all the fireworks of Joel Embiid‘s 50-point effort, Maxey produced yet another quality game against the Knicks in Game 3 with 25 points and 7 assists. In six games against the Knicks this season, three in the regular season and three in the playoffs, Maxey has scored at least 25 points in five of them. He is averaging 31.0 PPG in the playoffs thus far and. with Embiid’s 50-piece likely drawing even more defensive attention from the Knicks (if that’s even possible), Maxey has a good chance to turn in another big number on Sunday.
Mavericks -5.5 vs. Clippers (-115). The Clippers outscored the Mavericks by 26 points in a bizarre first half of Game 1 that saw the Mavs score only 30 points, including just eight points in the second quarter. In the 2.5 games since, the Mavericks have outscored the Clippers by 30 points to take control of the series. If we chalk that G1 first half up to “rust” after sitting their starters over the last couple games of the regular season, the Mavericks have been arguably the hottest team in the NBA over the last two months with wins in 18 of the last 22 games in which the starters have played. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard admitted after Game 3 that his knee hasn’t responded to treatment the way he would have liked, which has likely contributed to him only averaging 12.0 PPG in his first two games of the series.
Bucks OVER 106.5 total points (-115). The Bucks have played the Pacers eight times this season including both the regular season and playoffs. They have averaged 120.1 PPG in those eight contests, having scored at least 108 points in all of them. They scored 118 points in a Game 3 that featured overtime, but were already at 111 points scored through regulation. According to BPI, the Bucks project to score 110.8 points on Sunday.
Rudy Gobert OVER 27.5 total points and rebounds (-120). Gobert has faced the Suns four times over the last two weeks, including their matchup in the regular-season finale. He has taken advantage of the Suns’ lack of size in the middle, averaging 18.0 PPG on 74.2 FG% in those four games. His rebounding has been relatively up-and-down, with two single-digit efforts and two games of 14-plus boards, but the latter fits better with his norm of at least 14 rebounds in his other six most-recent games not involving the Suns. I’m expecting more of the same from Gobert on Sunday, continuing near his average of 29.5 P+R in those four most-recent Suns games.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
1 p.m. Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Records (Against the Spread)
Knicks: 50-32 (44-37-1)
76ers: 47-35 (48-34-0)
Line: 76ers (-4.5) Total: 208.5
Money Line: Knicks (+160), 76ers (-190)
Injury Report:
Knicks: Mitchell Robinson, (GTD – Ankle); Duane Washington Jr., (OUT – Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT – Shoulder)
76ers: Robert Covington, (OUT – Knee)
LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
3:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (Against the Spread)
Clippers: 51-31 (38-44-0)
Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)
Line: Mavericks (-5.5) Total: 209.5
Money Line: Clippers (+180), Mavericks (-220)
Injury Report:
Clippers: None reported
Mavericks: Olivier-Maxence Prosper, (GTD – Ankle); Tim Hardaway Jr., (GTD – Ankle); Greg Brown III, (OUT – Personal)
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 49-33 (35-47-0)
Pacers: 47-35 (44-36-2)
Line: Pacers (-9.5) Total: 217.5
Money Line: Bucks (+330), Pacers (-430)
Injury Report:
Bucks: Chris Livingston, (GTD – Illness); Damian Lillard, (GTD – Achilles); Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Calf)
Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT – Shoulder)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
9:30 p.m. Footprint Center, Phoenix
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 56-26 (40-39-3)
Suns: 49-33 (37-44-1)
Line: Timberwolves (-1.5) Total: 210.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (-125), Suns (+105)
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles)
Suns: Grayson Allen, (GTD – Ankle); Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)