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Brett Okamoto, ESPN Staff Writer
Like every sport, mixed martial arts has a relatively established list of stars.
Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko, for instance — UFC champions and the status quo for years. Israel Adesanya made the middleweight division his own for many years. And don’t forget Islam Makhachev‘s and Khabib Nurmagomedov‘s dominance of 155 pounds.
In addition to the status quo, there are also fighters waiting to get their shot — agents of chaos for every division. Every year, someone shakes things up, and in 2023, those names included Sean Strickland, Alexa Grasso, Alex Pereira and Tom Aspinall. None of them came out of nowhere, but they changed their respective divisions. They shifted landscapes.
As we look into 2024, here are some names that could replicate the shakeups of 2023. These are not meant to be championship predictions or simply naming the best fighters of each weight class. These are fighters that could break out in 2024 and have a chance to greatly alter the perspectives around each division.
Strawweight: Josefine Knutsson
This is a long-shot candidate in the 115-pound division, but don’t be surprised if Knutsson flourishes this year. She’s only 1-0 in the UFC, but she’s not far from a finished product. Knutsson is a very technical fighter out of Stockholm’s AllStars Training Center in Sweden, and looks physically strong to hold her own against some of the bullying styles of this division. There is no doubt that the 28-year-old Knutsson would be favored against plenty of the strawweights currently ranked in the top 15. She won’t become a champion in 2024, but I do believe she could break into title contention.
Men’s flyweight: Tatsuro Taira
There are plenty of opportunities for a new flyweight to become a contender in the UFC. This division has been wildly entertaining at the top, but those fights have also featured the same names for quite some time. The defending champion, Alexandre Pantoja, has already fought Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval twice. Moreno and Royval have fought each other, and will fight again in February. Kai Kara-France has fought Moreno (twice), as well as Royval. You see what I mean? Any newcomer who can break through into that top tier in 2024 is going to get great opportunities. The two names that stand out are Taira and Muhammad Mokaev. Mokaev has received more fanfare than Taira thus far, so we’ll make the 23-year-old Taira a slightly more likely choice to shake up this division in 2024.
Women’s flyweight: Manon Fiorot
This could essentially be a two-way tie between Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield, but we are going with Fiorot. Blanchfield was ESPN’s chaos agent for this division in 2023, and she didn’t disappoint, posting wins over Jessica Andrade and Taila Santos. France’s Fiorot is scheduled to face Blanchfield on March 30, and while the UFC could have easily let this matchup headline that UFC Fight Night event, it will instead take place under a headliner of Vicente Luque versus Sean Brady. The winner is almost guaranteed a title shot. Fiorot probably has a higher commercial appeal, because her rise could potentially bring along a substantial French fanbase. Much like Alexa Grasso scored a big one for Mexico in 2023, Fiorot could do the same for France in 2024.
Men’s bantamweight: Umar Nurmagomedov
This was the hardest pick of any division, as bantamweight is packed with talent. Last year’s choice was Merab Dvalishvili, and he delivered with a crushing performance against former champion Petr Yan. Cory Sandhagen is a big-time candidate. He’s ranked inside the top 5 in the division, and his style produces the kind of highlights fans love. But Nurmagomedov is the one who could see the biggest rise. We know about Dvalishvili, Sandhagen, Henry Cejudo, Deiveson Figueiredo, and even, to a lesser extent, Song Yadong. We know far less about Nurmagomedov. If the UFC is able to book him big fights and he performs the way he’s expected, he will be the division’s breakout in 2024. It’s as simple as that.
Women’s bantamweight: Kayla Harrison
This is a pretty obvious choice, after the UFC announced last week it had signed the two-time Olympic gold medalist. Harrison had a great career with the PFL, but she had exhausted her options there. A fourth fight against Larissa Pacheco — whom she beat two out of three times — would have been interesting, but then again, it would have been their fourth fight. A megafight with Bellator’s Cris Cyborg would have been great, but it was starting to feel like that matchup was never going to happen, even if they were in the same promotion. Harrison’s outlook on 2024 just took a 180-degree turn. She’s now dropping all the way to 135 pounds, which is intriguing in and of itself. She’s getting a massive opportunity straight out of the gate, against Holly Holm at UFC 300. Harrison is not just a chaos agent at this weight class, she’s one of the biggest ones in the sport.
Featherweight: Max Holloway
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Max Holloway excited for BMF fight with Justin Gaethje
Max Holloway joins Brett Okamoto to discuss his BMF title bout vs. Justin Gaethje.
How can Holloway — arguably the greatest featherweight of all time — be a “chaos agent” in 2024? Let me explain. The reason I’m picking Holloway is because somehow, someway, it feels like the sport greatly lowered its expectations of him last year. Since suffering three loses to Alexander Volkanovski since 2019, Holloway has been in this weird purgatory of defending his spot in the division, but without a belt around his waist. But consider the possibilities in 2024. If he beats Justin Gaethje for the BMF belt at UFC 300, it’s not unlikely he would face the winner of next month’s Volkanovski versus Ilia Topuria title fight. If Holloway, who is 4-1 in his last five fights, goes undefeated in 2024, that will shake up 145 pounds in a very significant way.
Lightweight: Arman Tsarukyan
We already saw Tsarukyan shake up the division last year. Finally a new face cracked into that top tier of the division, which has long been reserved, almost exclusively, for Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler. It’s been virtually impossible for new blood to join them, but Tsarukyan will do it this year when he faces Oliveira at UFC 300. Benoit Saint Denis also makes the cut here, as he’ll face Poirier at UFC 299. Of those two, Tsarukyan has a better shot of dethroning champion Islam Makhachev, which would obviously cause chaos.
Welterweight: Ian Machado Garry
Garry has looked very good as of late. He’s been head and shoulders above his opposition in 2023, including in his decision victory against Neil Magny in August. He’s already laid out his hit list of 2024, which includes Geoff Neal, who he fights next month, Colby Covington and Sean Strickland. Garry has people talking about him — and not just from fans and media, but other fighters, including former champions. The table is set for a true breakout, potentially polarizing, year.
Middleweight: Sean Strickland
Strickland was the division’s chaos agent in 2023, and he could be again in 2024. There are big fights out there for Strickland in 2024. Rematches against Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya, Khamzat Chimaev (who is publicly claiming to have owned Strickland in the gym). Not to mention that Strickland, in some ways, is chaos personified. Sure, we could look down the rankings and try to identify some new name on the way up in the middleweight division, but no one is capable of creating more chaos at 185 pounds than Strickland. He may not have the belt anymore, but he’s still at the center of this division’s intrigue.
Light Heavyweight: Vadim Nemkov
No one can truly say that Bellator’s Nemkov isn’t already the best light heavyweight on the planet. It’s nearly impossible for a fighter to be ranked No. 1 in the world if he/she does not compete in the UFC, but Nemkov has the right to claim he’s the best. In recent years, Nemkov has beaten all of the UFC transfers to Bellator, including Ryan Bader, Phil Davis, Corey Anderson and Yoel Romero. This year, he has a new talent pool to draw from, with the PFL and Bellator merger. He’s starting off the year with a heavyweight fight against Bruno Cappelozza, which could be a precursor into other appearances at heavyweight. But there are good fights for him at 205 with the PFL roster, including Impa Kasanganay and Robert Wilkinson. Nemkov is someone we could be referencing a lot this year, even outside of the UFC.
Heavyweight: Jon Jones
If he wants to be, Jones can become the chaos agent that this division, and the sport as a whole, badly wants and needs. I don’t think many people in the MMA world expect Jones to be an active champ who takes on all newcomers. If he were to do so, this division, which has been a little bit of a bust due to aging stars and inactivity in recent years, would immediately become one of the premier weight classes in the UFC. So, on that note, please Jon. Be an agent of chaos in 2024. We’d all love to see it.