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ESPN staff
The Week 4 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 4 slate, including our first London game of the season, Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson facing his old team in Philadelphia, Derrick Henry vs. Jonathan Taylor and a big Chiefs-Bucs meeting on Sunday night. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Rams and the 49ers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
MIN-NO | BUF-BAL | JAX-PHI
CHI-NYG | WSH-DAL | CLE-ATL
NYJ-PIT | SEA-DET | TEN-IND
LAC-HOU | ARI-CAR | NE-GB
DEN-LV | KC-TB | LAR-SF
Thursday: CIN 27, MIA 15
9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: MIN -2.5 (43)
What to watch for: The Saints could be relying heavily on wide receiver Chris Olave, who was just named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month. He has seen a large amount of targets recently and that should continue with wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry dealing with injuries. Quarterback Jameis Winston‘s back injury also continues to linger, which has contributed to offensive struggles this season. Perhaps a meeting with Minnesota is just what New Orleans needs. The Vikings have allowed 1,240 yards this season, the third most in the NFL, and at least 300 scrimmage yards in 11 consecutive games. — Katherine Terrell
Bold prediction: Saints CB Marshon Lattimore will hold Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson to less than 50 yards receiving. Lattimore uses the same kind of close-in, physical approach that Eagles CB Darius Slay and Lions CB Jeff Okudah have utilized to slow down Jefferson in the past two weeks. Until Jefferson proves he can beat that type of approach, opponents will continue using it. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: The Vikings have 13 total penalties through Week 3, second fewest in the NFL this season. But the Saints have 28 — tied for the second most.
What to know for fantasy: “Air yards” are not a fantasy stat, but they do have a way of hinting at upside. Olave leads the league in that category … by 164! See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Favorites are 18-12 against the spread (ATS) in London games. Overs and unders are split 15-15. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Saints 20
Walder’s pick: Vikings 27, Saints 13
FPI prediction: NO, 51.3% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: O’Connell’s aggressive playcalling before halftime has paid off for Vikings … Saints rookie WR Olave lone bright spot on struggling offense … Winston says he plans to play Sunday
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -3 (51)
What to watch for: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are two of the NFL’s most impactful running quarterbacks. The Bills are 12-3 (.800) when Allen runs for over 50 yards, and the Ravens are 16-1 (.941) when Jackson goes for 90 or more yards rushing. Allen and Jackson are among the favorites for NFL MVP this season because they are two of the three quarterbacks to account for over 83% of their team’s total yards (passing and rushing) through the first three games. — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs will have over 125 receiving yards for the second time this season, while the team’s receiving group deals with multiple injuries. Jake Kumerow (high ankle), is not expected to play, nor is Gabe Davis (ankle) trending in a positive direction for the game against the Ravens. Allen connecting with Diggs at a high level would go a long way in the Bills coming away with a win. Baltimore has allowed a league-high 95 total completions and 353.3 passing yards per game, which should provide opportunities for the Bills’ passing offense despite the injuries. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Buffalo has allowed just 173 total rushing yards, the second fewest in the NFL (Jaguars, 165) — including seven rushes for 20 yards by opposing quarterbacks.
What to know for fantasy: No team has allowed more deep completions this season than the Ravens, and Gabe Davis’ average depth of target for his career is over 14 yards. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Baltimore is 12-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since 2019. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 37, Ravens 30
Walder’s pick: Ravens 33, Bills 30
FPI prediction: BAL, 55.5% (by an average of 1.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Winning close games could be Bills’ Achilles’ heel … Why the Ravens’ Jackson is playing better than during his MVP season … Bills, beset by injuries to secondary, sign CB Rhodes to practice squad … Ranking best QB combos in NFL draft history: Allen, Jackson in the top 10?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PHI -6.5 (45.5)
What to watch for: Doug Pederson, the only Super Bowl-winning coach in Eagles history, makes his return to Philadelphia as head man of the Jags. QB Trevor Lawrence has grown leaps and bounds under him. The reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week has completed 69.4% of his passes with six touchdowns to just one interception. The coach-QB tandem will face an Eagles defense that ranks sixth in pass defense (186.7 YPG) and second in sacks (12). “I have a very high opinion of Doug,” said Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. “He’s a very good playcaller. He doesn’t have a lot of tendencies. You can’t bank on certain things coming. He’s doing a good job with the quarterback playing extremely fast.” — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts will rush for 100 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars’ defense has been very good through three games, but it hasn’t faced a mobile QB like Hurts yet (Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan and Justin Herbert with broken rib cartilage). While the pass rush has been good (21 QB hits, 7 sacks), Hurts’ ability to escape pressure will allow him to make some plays with his legs, especially if the Jaguars are in man coverage. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: Hurts ranks first in yards per attempt (9.35) this season, and his 13 offensive plays (12 pass, 1 rush) of 20-plus yards are tied for most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: The Jaguars have been a great surprise thus far, and running back James Robinson is a big reason. Coming off the Achilles injury, Robinson ranks third at the position in fantasy points this season, trailing only Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Philadelphia and Miami are the only teams to start 3-0 both outright and ATS. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 31, Eagles 28
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Jaguars 21
FPI prediction: PHI, 67.3% (by an average of 5.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Are the Jaguars, Lawrence finding their stride? … Hurts is adding to the Eagles’ Black QB lineage … College chemistry paying off for six QB-receiver duos in the NFL … What’s in store for Doug Pederson in Philly return? Four coaches share their ‘homecoming’ tales
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: NYG -3 (39.5)
What to watch for: These are two of the best rushing teams in the NFL through four weeks. The Bears with the duo of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert are second in the NFL, averaging 186.7 yards per contest. Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale considers Chicago’s running game “elite.” The Giants, meanwhile, are riding Saquon Barkley. They’re fourth in the NFL, averaging 169.3 yards per game on the ground. This is expected to be the week’s lowest-scoring game with the over/under at 39.5 according to Caesars Sportsbook. — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: The Bears leave MetLife Stadium with three sacks — matching half of their current total through three weeks — including two from Robert Quinn. Daniel Jones was pressured 24 times by Dallas, the most pressure a Giants QB has faced since 2009. Chicago’s pass rush hasn’t been all that effective (33 pass block wins, ranked 31st in the NFL), but this is the week it finally gets home with a heavy dose of new-look pressures and blitzes typically not seen from this scheme. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Bears have attempted 45 passes this season, fewest of any team through three games since the 1982 Patriots (44). Justin Fields has been intercepted on 8.9% of his attempts this season, highest in the NFL. And his 23.0 QBR ranks 31st among the 32 qualified QBs this season (only Baker Mayfield is worse).
What to know for fantasy: Don’t call it a comeback. Barkley is touching the ball 22 times a game and is on pace for over 2,000 total yards. For most, that would be the product of a small sample size, but for Barkley, it’s just pacing himself for a repeat of his rookie season in 2018. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: New York is 6-0 ATS on short rest since 2020. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Giants 17, Bears 14
Walder’s pick: Giants 20, Bears 9
FPI prediction: NYG, 65.0% (by an average of 4.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bears hope Herbert can continue to ‘knock it forward’ in Montgomery’s absence … Can the Giants’ offensive line fix its pass-block woes? … Bears legend Butkus goes on tweeting spree from team Twitter account … Giants lose top receiver Shepard to torn ACL
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DAL -3 (41.5)
What to watch for: The Cowboys have won seven straight NFC East games as they host the Commanders at AT&T Stadium. Cooper Rush will look to become the first Cowboys quarterback to win the first four starts of his career. While the pass game has been efficient, the run game has helped, too, with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard picking up 274 yards on 52 carries in Rush’s starts. Carson Wentz has a 4-4 record against Dallas in his career, but he is coming off a game in which he was sacked nine times. The Cowboys enter Week 3 with an NFL-best 11 sacks and have three players — Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong — with six sacks. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Speedy Dallas receiver Michael Gallup will make a big splash in his debut. He is returning from a torn ACL and will take advantage of a Washington defense that has yielded big plays by catching a 40-yard touchdown pass. The Commanders have allowed an NFL-high five passes of 40-plus yards and 12 plays overall of that length. They played better defensively in Week 3 vs. the Eagles, but big plays remain the issue. — John Keim
Stat to know: Washington receiver Terry McLaurin is coming off his 11th career game with 100-plus receiving yards, but he has never had one against the Cowboys.
Injuries: Commanders | Cowboys
What to know for fantasy: The Commanders have coughed up a 100-yard receiver in each of the first three weeks this season, and CeeDee Lamb was a dropped pass away from a career night against the Giants on Monday Night Football last week. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Ten of the past 13 meetings have gone over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Commanders 24, Cowboys 20
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 19, Commanders 16
FPI prediction: WSH, 53.3% (by an average of 1.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Commanders must find offensive identity … How CeeDee got redemption in Cowboys’ win vs. Giants … Lamb ready to carry Cowboys’ No. 88 legacy set by Pearson, Irvin and Dez … Rush rallies to win third straight career start
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CLE -1 (47.5)
What to watch for: This game, in theory, will have two of the NFL’s top three rushers — Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (No. 1, 341 yards) and Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson (No. 3, 302 yards). Patterson, though, didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, so that could take some luster out of the matchup if he can’t go. These two teams have some interesting ties, too, including both Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone and defensive coordinator Dean Pees growing up in Ohio as Browns fans. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: Atlanta tight end Kyle Pitts will double his career TD reception total, with two against the Browns. The Falcons, and their underrated offense, will hang around with Cleveland into the fourth quarter. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: The Browns have scored on 14 consecutive red zone drives dating back to last season, the third-longest active streak in the NFL behind the Cowboys (24) and Titans (16).
What to know for fantasy: Amari Cooper dropped 23.1 fantasy points on the Steelers last week, giving him consecutive 20-point games for the first time since Weeks 5-6 of the 2016 season. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Both teams have gone over the total in each of their first three games. The only other team 3-0 to the over is Detroit. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Browns 31, Falcons 23
Walder’s pick: Falcons 22, Browns 17
FPI prediction: ATL, 50.1% (by an average of 0.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns offense thriving with Brissett at QB … Patterson powers the Falcons’ running game … Garrett injured shoulder, biceps in car crash … Browns LB Walker out for season with torn quad tendon
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PIT -3.5 (41.5)
What to watch for: Jets QB Zach Wilson is making his season debut. The Steelers’ lack of experience against him, along with his mobility, create challenges for a defense that’s still struggling to find an identity without T.J. Watt. The Steelers have just two total sacks since Watt went out with the pectoral injury, and the run defense is again ranked near the bottom of the league after giving up 171 rushing yards to the Browns. — Brooke Pryor
Bold prediction: Rookie running back Breece Hall will record the first 100-yard rushing day of his career. After throwing a league-high 155 times in the first three games, the Jets want to be balanced with Wilson back. Michael Carter, and especially Hall, will be the beneficiary of strategic shift, as they run through the Steelers’ suspect run defense. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Steelers have a 33% third-down conversion rate this season, the second worst in the AFC after the Texans. They went 1-9 on third-down conversions against the Browns in the Week 3 loss — tied for the third-worst conversion rate since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007.
What to know for fantasy: New year, same problem. Last season, Najee Harris was king of volume, but his carries were only so valuable because he was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 30.6% of his totes. This season … 35%. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Pittsburgh is 16-1 outright with extra rest since 2017 (8-7-2 ATS). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Steelers 28, Jets 17
Walder’s pick: Steelers 27, Jets 20
FPI prediction: PIT, 67.9% (by an average of 5.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Wilson medically cleared, will start against Steelers … Three signs of progress for the Steelers’ offense, and three things that must improve … Jets dealt another blow at offensive tackle as Fant put on IR
1:10
Mike Clay breaks down what Zach Wilson coming back could mean for the Jets receivers.
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DET -4 (48)
What to watch for: A hobbled Lions team could limp into the Week 4 matchup after missing several key players throughout practice during the week, including running back D’Andre Swift (ankle/shoulder), tight end T.J. Hockenson (foot) and wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and Josh Reynolds (ankle). Both teams are entering the contest with matching 1-2 records, trying to bounce back after close, one-score losses the previous week. An interesting matchup to watch is Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah against DK Metcalf. The Seahawks receiver recently said Okudah isn’t really “locking people down” and has a safety under helping him. — Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: The Seahawks will hold Detroit to under 115 rushing yards. That qualifies as bold given that Seattle has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game this season, including 189 and 179 the past two weeks. They might get a break Sunday with the Lions’ Swift injured, and they could get a boost with outside linebackers Boye Mafe and Darryl Johnson playing more on early downs in place of Darrell Taylor, who has struggled against the run. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Lions are scoring 31.7 PPG — the second most in the NFL — and are allowing 31.0 PPG, the most in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: Through three weeks, both Detroit running backs rank as top-10 players at the position, but only one of them will be active this week. Jamaal Williams and his four rushing touchdowns are set to take center stage with Swift’s shoulder injury set to sideline him for at least the short term. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Detroit is 3-0 ATS this season and 14-6 ATS under Dan Campbell. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, Seahawks 21
Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Seahawks 15
FPI prediction: DET, 65.3% (by an average of 4.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Seahawks’ defense faces familiar challenge: Turning around another poor start … Lions’ Swift week-to-week with shoulder sprain
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: IND -3.5 (43)
What to watch for: The Colts currently have a minus-3 turnover margin, an alarming number for a team that ranked first in this category in 2021 and second in 2020. There are two reasons: Matt Ryan has had an exceedingly rare stretch, turning the ball over six times in three games. And the defense — after finishing last season second in takeaways — has produced just three turnovers to date. Alternatively, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has thrown just three interceptions through three games. If the Colts’ defense can somehow force turnovers — and not commit turnovers — they will have a better chance at their second win of the season. — Stephen Holder
Bold prediction: Titans running back Derrick Henry will get his first 100-yard rushing performance this season. That’s bold considering the Colts are allowing a league-low 2.6 yards per carry. Henry had a season-high 65 yards after contact last week. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing feels Henry is on the verge of breaking off a long run if “they can finish blocks, that last shove, last bit of effort to will spring him into the secondary.” — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: Ryan has been sacked 12 times, the fourth most in the NFL so far this season. That’s the second-most sacks he has taken in his team’s first three games of a season in his career (13 in 2011). That is also the second-most sacks taken by a Colts QB since the franchise moved to Indianapolis in 1984 (Jim Harbaugh took 16 sacks in 1997).
What to know for fantasy: It might not be what you signed up for, but don’t panic … Jonathan Taylor has 14.8 more fantasy points through three games this season than he did during his historic 2021 campaign. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Eight straight Indianapolis games have gone under the total, including all three this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 27, Titans 24
Walder’s pick: Colts 20, Titans 17
FPI prediction: IND, 60.4% (by an average of 3.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Titans coach Vrabel searching inside (and outside) the building for answers to secondary woes … Ryan, imperfect Colts finding ways to win while also finding their way … Titans LT Lewan out for season with knee injury
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAC -5 (45)
What to watch for: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL (910), but the Texans’ pass defense has been exceptional. They’ve held opposing quarterbacks’ completion percentage to 55.1%, which is the second best in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. The Texans have 10 sacks on the year, coming in at fourth best. The coverage in the secondary has been stout, as quarterbacks are completing only 44% of their passes when targeting cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. This should be interesting as the Chargers are coming off a down week, losing to the Jaguars in Week 3. –– DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: The Chargers will clamp down on defense and keep the Texans out of the end zone. This is bold considering the Chargers’ defense is averaging the most points allowed in the AFC at 28 per game. But the Texans are among teams who are struggling to score, averaging 16.3 points per game. Watch for the Bolts’ defense behind Khalil Mack and Derwin James to play inspired, wanting to prove that it should not be counted out despite losing star edge rusher Joey Bosa indefinitely. — Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know: Los Angeles’ Austin Ekeler is the only running back in the NFL who is currently leading his team in both targets (22) and receptions (21).
What to know for fantasy: Dameon Pierce got 87% of the Texans’ RB carries last week in Chicago. Not a bad role to take into a matchup with the Chargers, the third-worst defense in terms of running back yards per carry since the beginning of last season. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Los Angeles is 0-3 outright as a road favorite under coach Brandon Staley. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 31, Texans 20
Walder’s pick: Chargers 26, Texans 10
FPI prediction: LAC, 70.4% (by an average of 6.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Guide to all the Chargers injuries, and how they’ll try to overcome them … Texans coach Smith not sure ‘exactly why’ Mills, offense are struggling … Injured Herbert ‘didn’t want to quit on the team’ in Jags loss … Bolts LT Slater out for season
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: CAR -1 (43.5)
What to watch for: Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield ranks 31st in the NFL in completion percentage (51.9), and a big issue has been poor footwork due to a lack of full trust in his offensive line that has allowed nine sacks. He should have more confidence going up against an Arizona defense that ranks 31st in sacks with only two through three games. — David Newton
Bold prediction: With the weather playing a factor, the Cardinals will commit to the run, and James Conner will have 100 yards for the first time this season and Kyler Murray will eclipse 50 for the first time. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: Christian McCaffrey has two straight games of 100-plus rush yards after going 18 games without reaching 100. He has not had three straight 100-yard rushing games since Weeks 8-10 in 2019.
Injuries: Cardinals | Panthers
What to know for fantasy: It’s hard to know what will happen in four weeks when DeAndre Hopkins returns after Week 6, but Marquise Brown is coming off a career day and is the ninth-highest-scoring fantasy receiver this season (just ahead of first-round picks Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams). See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Arizona has won seven straight games outright as a road underdog, tied for the longest streak since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 28, Panthers 17
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 31, Panthers 14
FPI prediction: CAR, 52.8% (by an average of 0.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Kingsbury still trying to solve Cardinals offense’s first-quarter woes … As Mayfield struggles, Panthers’ defense shines in first win … College chemistry paying off for six QB-receiver duos in the NFL
1:34
Field Yates and Mike Clay break down DJ Moore’s fantasy struggles and what they recommend fantasy managers do with him.
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: GB -9.5 (40)
What to watch for: There are some telling streaks at play: Aaron Rodgers has won five straight games against AFC opponents,; the Packers have won 14 straight regular-season home games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL; and Patriots likely starting quarterback Brian Hoyer has lost 11 consecutive starts, which is the longest streak among quarterbacks currently on NFL rosters. — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: Patriots running backs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson will come close to totaling 200 rushing yards between them. This will have to be the formula for New England to have a chance to pull the upset. The Packers have shown some vulnerability against the run, with the Bears totaling 180 yards on 27 carries in Week 2, and the Vikings with 126 yards on 28 carries in Week 1. But here’s a potential problem for New England: With Rodgers completing 75% of his passes in back-to-back games, the possibility of falling behind early could make the Patriots more one-dimensional than they desire. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Patriots’ defense owns a 9.3% sack rate this season, which is the third best in the NFL. And Rodgers has taken eight sacks in three games this season.
What to know for fantasy: Romeo Doubs saw 23.5% of the targets last weekend in Tampa Bay, the highest rate for a Packer this season and potentially a sign of things to come for the promising rookie. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: Green Bay is 17-7 ATS as a home favorite under coach Matt LaFleur, including 7-1 ATS since the start of last season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Packers 28, Patriots 13
Walder’s pick: Packers 24, Patriots 0
FPI prediction: GB, 88.8% (by an average of 14.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why coaching is a family affair for the Belichicks, from Bill to Amanda to Steve to Brian … Bakhtiari off to good start in return from torn ACL. What’s next? … Belichick stiff-arms queries on Jones injury with ‘day by day’ refrain … Rodgers vs. Brady matchup fizzled, but Packers found other ways to win … Matthews hoped to finish his career with Packers
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LV -2.5 (45.5)
What to watch for: Raiders edge rusher Chandler Jones has zero sacks through three games, and is fast becoming a target for impatient fans. Keep an eye, then, on the four-time Pro Bowler possibly getting untracked against his favorite target in Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson. Jones has sacked Wilson 16.5 times in his career, the most sacks Jones has against any one QB. It’s a rivalry that dates to Jones’ days in Arizona and Wilson’s in Seattle. “He thought he could get away from me, leaving [the NFC West],” Jones said with a laugh back in March, “but I’m right here with him again. So, that’s going to be fun, getting after him a little bit.” — Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: Fire the confetti cannons in Denver, Broncos quarterback Wilson will have his first multiple-touchdown game with the team after having just two passing touchdowns over the first three games. And while that might not move the needle on the “bold” meter in some NFL outposts, the Broncos keep saying they’re close to something that resembles the offense they hoped to have when they exited the preseason. Plus, the Raiders have surrendered four pass plays of at least 30 yards in the first three games to go with five passing touchdowns by opposing quarterbacks. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos are averaging 14.3 PPG, second worst in the NFL. Forty-three total points in the first three games are their fewest since 2006.
What to know for fantasy: The Denver passing game has yet to really hit its stride, and yet, only four receivers in the entire league have more receiving yards than Courtland Sutton. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: All three Denver games have gone under the total by over 10 points this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Broncos 26, Raiders 17
Walder’s pick: Raiders 30, Broncos 19
FPI prediction: LV, 58.3% (by an average of 2.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Should the Broncos panic? … Adams shrugs off Green Bay comparisons amid adjustment period with Carr, Raiders … Learning curve a bumpy ride so far for Broncos’ Hackett … Raiders hope to turn frustration into redemption to recover from 0-3 start
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: EVEN (45.5)
What to watch for: The Bucs will have wide receivers Mike Evans (suspension) and Julio Jones (knee) back this week, with wide receiver Chris Godwin (hamstring) and left tackle Donovan Smith (elbow) also possibilities. Having scored only three offensive touchdowns in three games so far this year, they need all hands on deck to keep pace with a Chiefs team averaging 29.3 points per game. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ rebuilt offensive line is eager to show this wasn’t the same group from Super Bowl LV — their two sacks given up are tied for fewest in the league right now. — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: The sixth meeting between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes will be the lowest scoring yet. The Chiefs and Bucs are struggling to score, with the Chiefs’ offense producing just 37 points in the past two games and the Bucs averaging just 17 points per game through the first three. These teams don’t look like they will combine for 39 points, the lowest output so far for a Brady-Mahomes game. It certainly won’t approach the 83 points the two generated in a 2018 game between the Chiefs and Patriots. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: The Buccaneers are looking to avoid a fourth straight game held under 20 points. Only one Brady-led team has been held under 20 points in four straight games — the 2002 Patriots.
Injuries: Chiefs | Buccaneers
What to know for fantasy: Leonard Fournette got loose in Week 1 for 127 yards on 21 carries. In the two games since (Mike Evans was ejected in one and suspended for the other), he has picked up just 100 yards on 36 carries. The Bucs welcome their WR1 back this week with the hopes of reopening the lanes that were there in the Week 1 win at Dallas. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: All three Tampa Bay games have gone under the total this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Chiefs 21
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 30, Buccaneers 17
FPI prediction: TB, 63.3% (by an average of 3.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Are the Chiefs in trouble? … Buccaneers’ Bowles, Brady concerned with lack of production … How the Chiefs have kept Mahomes happy in Kansas City … Buccaneers relocate to South Florida ahead of Hurricane Ian, hold practices at Dolphins’ facility
1:07
Bart Scott and Dan Graziano explain why it isn’t time to panic about the Buccaneers.
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: SF -1 (42.5)
What to watch for: The 49ers have had the Rams’ number in recent years, winning six straight regular-season games, but the Rams won the one that mattered most in January, advancing to the Super Bowl with a fourth-quarter surge in the NFC Championship Game. After a road loss last week in Denver, the Niners are in danger of falling two games back of the Rams in the NFC West with a loss here. To avoid that, they’ll need quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to find a groove in a hurry behind an offensive line missing star tackle Trent Williams. Garoppolo is 6-1 as a starter against Los Angeles, but his eight interceptions are the most he has thrown against any opponent. — Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: Cooper Kupp sets a career high for receptions with 14 catches. He leads the NFL with 28 receptions, including tying his career high of 13 in Week 1 against the Bills. Kupp’s target share through three games (35%) is higher than it was during the 2021 season (32%), and that continues against the 49ers on Monday night. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Niners’ Deebo Samuel has 111 rushing yards this season, the most among players who are primarily wide receivers. He is also one of two wideouts with a rushing touchdown in 2022. The other? Kupp.
What to know for fantasy: Allen Robinson II is one of just seven players who has seen an end zone target in each of the first three weeks. His managers might be getting impatient, but converting targets like that could make up for a slow start in short order. See Week 4 rankings.
Betting nugget: San Francisco has covered all five meetings since 2020 including playoffs. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 24, Rams 21
Walder’s pick: 49ers 23, Rams 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 60.0% (by an average of 3.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Kupp off to great start, but Rams’ offense still work in progress … Garoppolo has 8.5 million sources of motivation for 49ers … Battered Rams secondary steps up to help muzzle Cardinals … 49ers’ Williams, Al-Shaair dealing with multiweek injuries