Before I reveal every series winner in the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs and the exact number of games in which the series will be won, I’d like to just offer a small reminder to establish a baseline for your expectations:
I picked the New York Islanders to win the Cup before the season.
But that was before the season. Now I have 82 games of data, observation and results on each team to rely on for my prognostications, rather than just vibes. Although, in fairness, sometimes vibes work too.
The brackets are set, and so are the rosters. The 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs commence beginning Monday night, with June 30 as the last possible day for the Cup to be raised. Who will win? Who will lose? Who will shock the hockey world, either in victory or in defeat?
Here is how the Stanley Cup playoffs will play out, from the opening round through the last game of the Final. I apologize in advance for spoiling the next two months for you, as obviously all of this is going to happen exactly to script.
Jump ahead:
East: 1st | 2nd
Conference finals
West: 1st | 2nd
Conference finals
Stanley Cup Final
EAST FIRST ROUND
It’s a tribute to the Bruins’ postseason prowess that they had two possible first-round opponents on Friday night both screaming at the heavens, “Please … not Boston again!”
The Maple Leafs avoided their tormentors, but the Hurricanes were not so lucky. The Bruins eliminated Carolina in two of the past three postseasons, winning 4-0 in 2018-19 and 4-1 in 2019-20. (The Hurricanes earned a brief reprieve when the teams were separated in last season’s COVID-necessitated realignment.)
Those Bruins aren’t these Bruins. Gone are names like David Krejci, Tuukka Rask, Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara. But seeing David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy still wearing the spoked B is probably enough to spook Carolina.
The Hurricanes led the league with 2.44 goals against per game, mostly due to their goaltending, as they were 18th in expected goals against. Frederik Andersen played himself into Vezina Trophy consideration before a late-season injury that could impact his availability or effectiveness in the first round. But Antti Raanta and rookie Pyotr Kochetkov can also do the job.
Carolina is also incredibly deep at the forward position. Sebastian Aho (81 points), Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, Vincent Trocheck, Martin Necas, rookie Seth Jarvis … mix ’em as you like and you’re going to end up with two great lines. The “checking line” with Jesper Fast, Jordan Staal and Nino Niederreiter is as good as they come.
They’re a better offensive team than Boston, full stop. They are not a better defensive team, and that’s where I think the series swings slightly in Boston’s favor. The Hurricanes generate a ton of shots. No one is better than the Bruins in limiting high-danger shot attempts on Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. They’ll need one of them to be the best goalie on the ice in a couple of these games, and I don’t think that’s an outrageous ask.
I’ll take the Bruins here, as Marchand and Pastrnak — the fourth- and fifth-highest playoff scorers since 2015-16, incidentally — help prolong what might be pending free agent Patrice Bergeron’s last run in Boston. That said, this might be the biggest toss-up series in the first round.
Winner: Bruins eliminate Hurricanes 4-3
The Penguins used to be the default pick in playoff series because of their star-power advantage over conference opponents. But Pittsburgh might seem dim on the magnitude scale compared with the Rangers, who now have more bold-faced names than a gossip entry on Page Six.
Artemi Panarin (96 points), Mika Zibanejad (81 points), Chris Kreider (52 goals) up front, with last season’s Norris Trophy winner, Adam Fox, and this season’s lock for the Vezina Trophy, Igor Shesterkin (.935 save percentage), behind them. There’s a good, if young and inexperienced, supporting cast around them. It took a while, and some deadline acquisitions, but New York’s horrific underlying numbers have trended up for the past two months at 5-on-5. Meanwhile, the Rangers power play led the league for most of the season.
The Penguins enter this series on a cold spell. They’re in a 5-6-1 funk, watching offensive players like Bryan Rust struggled to create goals down the stretch. Goalie Tristan Jarry, who stabilized the Penguins for most of the season with consistently good goaltending, is out with a broken foot. To say the Rangers have gotten the better of the Penguins this season would be an understatement, as Pittsburgh went 1-3 and was outscored 11-4. Not great!
All that said … I lean Pittsburgh here.
Goalie Casey DeSmith doesn’t have to be the reason the Penguins win this season, he just can’t be the reason they lose it. He posted a .935 save percentage in 12 appearances since March 1. I think if DeSmith was healthy in the first round last postseason, when Jarry played terribly, the Penguins would have gotten by the Islanders.
The Penguins have a significant advantage in even-strength goal scoring. Since March 30, the Penguins were seventh in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (2.86) while the Rangers were 28th (2.35), having struggled in that metric all season. The only way the Penguins are going to challenge Shesterkin is with shot volume, and Pittsburgh was sixth in shots on goal per game (34.7) this season.
New York has overcome that 5-on-5 disadvantage with their aforementioned power-play prowess, but that could be mitigated by the Penguins having the third best penalty kill in the NHL, and being tied for second-fewest times shorthanded in the league this season.
Throw in Sidney Crosby trying to win his first playoff series since 2018 and prolong the last ride for this Stanley Cup-winning core, and you’ve got the makings of a mild upset.
Winner: Penguins eliminate Rangers 4-2
Hmmmm … tough one. Do we go with the best goal-scoring team the NHL has seen since 1995-96 or its opponent with the potentially injured MVP and porous goaltending? Meditate on this, I will.
OK, I meditated: The Panthers are going to win this round, and quite tidily. There’s a kind of team that could give them trouble in a seven-game series, but the Capitals aren’t that team.
Goalie Vitek Vanecek has been inconsistent at best, while Ilya Samsonov has been sub-replacement level. Whatever you think of Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight, the Panthers have the advantage in goal. The late-season shoulder injury to Alex Ovechkin may end up being another ailment that doesn’t cause the Russian Machine to malfunction, but if he does, they’re cooked — Ovechkin had six points in three games against the Panthers in the regular season.
But ultimately, this is a series where the Panthers are the Marianas Trench of offensive depth while the Capitals have become a leaky above-ground swimming pool. Beyond Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov (78 points), the Capitals were left wanting for more point production, as standard-bearers such as T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom posted some Washington career nadir numbers.
Am I worried that Florida will choke on its own hype and spectacularly flame out in the first round under an interim coach who has yet to lead his team through on-ice adversity? It wouldn’t be the Stanley Cup playoffs if I wasn’t! But I’ll take Cats over the Caps, as the Panthers win their first playoff series since “Fargo” was in theaters.
Winner: Panthers eliminate Capitals 4-1
We didn’t do our “series watchability rankings” this season, but if we had, this series would have won in a landslide. The playoff-cursed Maple Leafs, trying to ride an MVP season by Auston Matthews to their first postseason series win since 2004 and first Stanley Cup since 1967, against the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Lightning, a playoff team that has more creative ways of taking opponents out than Villanelle? Yes, please.
My heart says Tampa Bay here. Not just because of the Maple Leafs’ inexplicable bad playoff fortunes and the “demons” that haunt them, as assistant coach Paul MacLean put it. But because of Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point and Ryan McDonagh and Andrei Vasilevskiy and coach Jon Cooper and Mikhail Sergachev and …
(takes breath)
… Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli and Pat Maroon and Ondrej Palat and now Corey Perry and what exactly is a Ross Colton again? They’re the Tampa Bay Lightning. They’ll find a way to prolong the Leafs’ misery, right?
My head says the Leafs. They’re third in expected goals and fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, better in both categories than the Lightning. They’ve found magic in Matthews, Mitchell Marner and Michael Bunting, who generate 6.75 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, the best production in the NHL.
In the past two seasons, the Lightning would have deployed the Yanni Gourde line and Hedman against Matthews and called it a series. They’re going to miss Gourde’s forward unit (with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow) here. Plus, Vasilevskiy has looked human a bit too many times in a season that saw his numbers dip.
My heart still says the Lightning. My head says the Leafs. As is tradition with Toronto, neither outcome would surprise me.
Winner: Maple Leafs eliminate Lightning 4-2
EAST SECOND ROUND
In a series only Wiz Khalifa could love, I like the Bruins to keep their championship window propped open for one round longer than the Penguins can. Their defense should frustrate the Penguins attack at 5-on-5. Theoretically, they’ll also have found a hot goalie hand between Ullmark and Swayman, too. The Bruins haven’t faced the Penguins in the playoffs since 2013, when they swept them in the Eastern Conference finals. This one will be closer.
Winner: Bruins eliminate Penguins 4-2
What would the Vegas sportsbooks set as the over/under for Game 1 of this series? Like, 14 goals?
This would be an outstanding series, and not just for the “Joe Thornton, former Leaf” subplot. The top two goal-scoring teams in the NHL putting on a show, which naturally means every game will end up 2-1, because it’s the Stanley Cup playoffs.
By now, the majority of Toronto will be deep into championship-parade planning after getting past the first round. As the universe must be balanced between Maple Leafs fans’ joy and pain, they’ll lose to Florida in seven games, marking the fifth straight postseason in which Toronto chose “go home” in a “win or go home” series finale.
Winner: Panthers eliminate Leafs 4-3
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Just your classic styles clash between the best offensive team of the last 26 years and a Bruins team that still knows how to play to its defensive identity. While seeing Brad Marchand find new and exciting ways to agitate Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov would be fun, the Panthers just have too much depth for the Bruins to handle.
If Florida makes it this far, then the NHL postseason is as goals-friendly as the regular season was, and that plays to the Cats’ strengths.
Winner: Panthers eliminate Bruins 4-1
WEST FIRST ROUND
The Predators’ embarrassing collapse in the Arizona Coyotes‘ final game in Glendale on Friday night dropped them to the final wild-card spot and a first-round date with the Avalanche. As the great philosopher Darryl Sutter once said: “If you are a wild-card team, I sure as hell don’t want to play Colorado in the first round, because it’s going to be a waste of eight days.”
The great “what if?” in this series is whether those days would have been wasted had Juuse Saros been healthy. The Predators goalie is reportedly out with a high ankle sprain, leaving the Nashville crease in the incapable hands of David Rittich and the untested hands of Connor Ingram. With due respect to Roman Josi, Saros was their MVP, starting 67 games and owning 38 of the team’s 45 wins this season — including two in two games against Colorado.
But he’s not expected to play in this series. Meanwhile, Avalanche goalie Darcy Kuemper has been one of the best in the league in calendar 2022. This should mean a fairly easy path for the Avalanche to advance. Colorado is the superior 5-on-5 team, although the special teams battle is closer than expected. We’ll give the Preds a win on home ice, but not much beyond that, unless you count Josi outscoring Norris Trophy rival Cale Makar in the series.
Winner: Avalanche eliminate Predators 4-1
For all the recent debate I sparked about playoff expansion, let’s not lose sight of the current format’s glaring inefficiencies. The Wild (113) and the Blues (109) are the second- and fourth-best teams in the Western Conference respectively, yet they have to play each other in the first round of the playoffs. Under the old 1-through-8 conference format, the Wild would have hosted the Kings while the Blues would have hosted the Oilers. Instead, we have a series where one legit Stanley Cup contender is one and done, and that stinks.
That contender, by the way, will be the St. Louis Blues.
I’ve been high on the Blues all season. Their 3.77 goals-per-game average is the best in franchise history since the 1990-91 season, when Brett Hull scored 86 goals. These Blues didn’t quite have anyone hit those heights, but their offensive depth was impressive. Robert Thomas (77 points) blossomed into one of the NHL’s best playmaking centers, and his current line is a steamroller featuring offseason coup Pavel Buchnevich and Vladimir Tarasenko, who went from demanding a trade to leading the Blues with 82 points.
Jordan Kyrou had a star-making campaign with 75 points, while old friends such as Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron, Brayden Schenn and Ivan Barbashev contributed to the offensive explosion. More scoring came from the blue line, courtesy of Justin Faulk and Torey Krug.
Meanwhile in goal, Ville Husso has given the Blues everything that Jordan Binnington can no longer consistently give them, with a 25-7-6 record and a .919 save percentage.
Like I said, a great team! One deserving of home ice and a much easier opponent! Alas…
As goal-happy as the Blues were this season, so were the Wild, who finished just 0.05 goals per game behind St. Louis for the best offensive season in their franchise’s history. They see your Tarasenko and raise you a Kirill Kaprizov (108 points). Kevin Fiala (85 points), Mats Zuccarello (79 points), Ryan Hartman (34 goals) and rookie Matt Boldy (39 points in 47 games) powered a team that had 11 players score at least 30 points. I’d put their top three lines against anyone’s in the NHL — even if a late-season injury to Marcus Foligno hurts the GREEF line with him, Joel Eriksson Ek and Jordan Greenway.
But the story here is defense for Minnesota. Under head coach Dean Evason, the Wild have been the second-best team in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the past two seasons. They’re the second-best team this season in limiting high-danger shot attempts against their goaltending. They are an elite defensive team.
The difference this postseason for Minnesota is, of course, that goaltending. In the past, they’d use their two-way forwards and tremendously deep blue line — an advantage over St. Louis, which is no slouch on the back end either — to play stellar defense that was undermined by porous goaltending. So they went out and traded for Marc-Andre Fleury, who has gone 9-2-0 for them while Cam Talbot has the second-best save percentage in the NHL (.929) since March 19 (min. 10 games).
I like the Wild here to advance and get revenge for St. Louis ruining their Winter Classic party. Although I would have liked it better if these teams didn’t have to meet in the first round at all.
Winner: Wild eliminate Blues 4-2
Kudos to the Stars for making the postseason cut in the Western Conference. They won a de facto playoff game against the Vegas Golden Knights last week to earn the chance. Pity I don’t see them winning another.
Dallas is a one-line team. It’s a really, really good line: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz have an expected goals percentage north of 60% at 5-on-5. Robertson put together a stealth MVP season; and while I think this is going to end up being a cameo appearance for Dallas in the playoffs, getting him in the playoff spotlight is a great thing for the NHL.
But beating the Flames is a lot like hitting a supermarket checkout on a weekend morning: If you don’t have more than one line option, your day is going to be ruined. Calgary can throw Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk at the Robertson line. They can send out any winger with Andrew Mangiapane and Mikael Backlund — we prefer Blake Coleman with that duo. And they’ll know that these lines can take care of the Stars’ stars defensively while also being an offensive threat. That’s such an advantage here.
In goal, Jake Oettinger has been outstanding for the Stars; frankly, I think he can take credit for this playoff berth with his play in the last two weeks. But with nine shutouts this season, Jacob Markstrom has been a Vezina Trophy-finalist goalie — even if Dallas got to him this season.
The only thing that gives me pause here: That Dallas has played playoff-level games for the last two weeks while the Flames have been in cruise control of the division’s top spot. Is that conservation of energy or the foundation for a first-round stunner? Because we’ve seen the latter play out before.
I’ll say the former, emphatically.
Winner: Flames sweep Stars 4-0
Second to Juuse Saros being injured for the Predators in the “what if?” department is Drew Doughty being out with an injured wrist for the Kings. What if he were around to deploy against Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl? Is this a different series?
The Kings aren’t going to be an easy out. They’ve had strong underlying numbers all season. Their veterans have been their best players — they might not have Doughty, but they have Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault to send out against the Oilers’ top players. The one thing that really scares me here if I’m Edmonton? That the Jonathan Quick Revival Tour extends into the postseason, and a 36-year-old goalie with 24 goals saved above average this season has one more moment of playoff mastery.
But that 40-year-old goalie across the way hasn’t been bad lately, either. It’s not exactly a state secret that the Oilers have a thin roster carried by two megastars and however much goaltending they can squeeze out of Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen. Smith is feeling it right now: He has backstopped nine straight wins, giving up more than two goals just twice in that span. I think he carries that for one round of the playoffs, and lets Connor and Leon do the rest.
The Kings will make it interesting. I rather like the way they did all the retirement pomp and circumstance for Dustin Brown before the playoffs, like an extra carrot for the boys. Perhaps this goes seven instead of six. But unless Quick pops off, L.A. won’t go beyond the first round.
Winner: Oilers eliminate Kings 4-2
WEST SECOND ROUND
I believe there are four teams that have a legitimate chance of eliminating the Avalanche. The problem for Colorado is that three of them are in the Western Conference, and two of them are bracketed to potentially face them in the conference semifinal.
Minnesota has the defensive acumen and offensive weaponry to hang with the Avs at even strength. If this series is decided on special teams, it could tip to Colorado. So the Wild have to ensure it doesn’t.
But mostly, if they’re going to beat the Avalanche, the Wild have to do two things: Punch them in the mouth — metaphorically, of course — and win once in Denver while taking all of their games in Minnesota. The Avalanche’s three most recent playoff eliminations came against physical teams that were able to grind for goals in the offensive zone. Winning those kinds of battles is what the Wild do well. As for home ice, Minnesota plays its best hockey there. It will need to take all three games to defeat a team this good.
I think either the Blues or Wild have a shot to take out the Avalanche. Having dispatched the Blues, I think Minnesota’s defense and a strong Marc-Andre Fleury performance will be the latest catalysts for a surly Nathan MacKinnon postgame news conference.
Winner: Wild eliminate Avalanche 4-2
We may not get the Battle of Florida in the East this postseason, but we’re getting that slobber-knocker known as the Battle of Alberta in the West. The last time the Flames and Oilers met in the postseason was in the Smythe Division semifinals in 1991. So it’s been a while.
Will it be worth the wait? I think so. Again, the depth advantage the Flames have in being about to send out players like Lindholm, Backlund, Tkachuk, Coleman and Mangiapane on separate lines to defend against McDavid and Draisaitl is such an advantage. And there’s always a chance that Mike Smith turns into a pumpkin by the second round. But Edmonton has been so good under interim coach Jay Woodcroft that it’s hard to imagine this won’t be a fight to the finish.
But in the end, Calgary will finish off their provincial rivals and advance to the conference finals.
Winner: Flames eliminate Oilers 4-3
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
This series will not be for the faint of heart. Two tremendous defensive teams at 5-on-5 that protect their goalies from high-danger shot attempts. Two teams with talented offensive forwards that can also play defense and mix it up physically. Two absolutely incredible arena atmospheres.
I’ll take Minnesota here for their depth on the blue line, and in the hopes that after the Blues and Avalanche they’re just locked into an unbeatable groove and advance to their first Stanley Cup Final. But Calgary is really good.
Winner: Wild eliminate Flames 4-2
STANLEY CUP FINAL
Apologies to all the media covering the Stanley Cup Final. This won’t be as bad as having to fly from South Florida to Alberta a few times, but it’s close!
What’s fun about this Final is that we’ll have a first-time Stanley Cup winner. The Panthers haven’t played for one since the rat-tossing 1996 run that ended with a loss to the Avalanche. The Wild have only made the conference finals once, in 2003. Crowning a new champion is extra special when it also means a city gets its first taste of the Cup as well.
A Panthers win also means Joe Thornton and Claude Giroux get their first tastes as well, to end a season to remember for Florida. One that started with the stunning (and necessary) resignation of Joel Quenneville, and interim coach Andrew Brunette taking over. One that featured the best point-production season in franchise history from Jonathan Huberdeau (115). One that produced an offensive juggernaut that the NHL hasn’t seen in over 25 years, which ultimately will be the difference here.
Offense beats defense. The beach beats the lakes. The Panthers beat the Wild for the Stanley Cup.
Winner: Panthers win the Stanley Cup 4-2