The Chiefs are Super Bowl-bound for the fifth time since 2020, challenging the Patriots’ standing as the last great American dynasty as they attempt to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowl titles. As exciting as that sounds, let’s be honest: The fatigue surrounding Kansas City’s dominance has fans from all divisions wondering Is It Over Now? While Chiefs Kingdom can bring the noise, NFL fans outside of Jackson County have hoped that Castles Crumbling would mark a new era. One Bills fan even got on some Vigilante S— and ordered a spell candle to hex her team’s rival in the conference championship matchup. In hindsight, the purchase appears to have been a Foolish One.
Still, Bills Mafia may be onto something. This game feels Enchanted in a way that previous Super Bowl tilts haven’t. Maybe a rematch Hits Different? After all, the Chiefs and the Eagles are meeting in the Super Bowl for the second time in just three seasons. In fact, the only other pair of teams to meet twice in a three-season span were the Cowboys and (wouldn’t you know it) the Bills when they faced each other in 1992 and 1993, with the Cowboys winning both. Regardless, this happens once every few lifetimes and, honestly, who are we to fight the alchemy?
Whether the matchup has you seeing Red or feeling pure happiness, ’tis the damn season for props! So lean in, get Fearless, and let Taylor inspire a handful of wagers over the remainder of the Fortnight. Odds suggest there might be a few teardrops on your bet slips, but at least do it for the Love Story! For the latest odds or to place any of these bets, go to ESPN BET
“End Game”
Travis Kelce to score a TD (+115)
Kelce has earned a big reputation, breaking numerous NFL records and collecting three Super Bowl rings. While he’s managed three seasons of double-digit scores during the Pat Mahomes era, Kelce’s red zone prowess has waned over his past two campaigns. In fact, he registered a career-low three touchdowns from Weeks 1 through 17. Kelce did find the end zone during the divisional round of the playoffs versus Houston, but he was held to just two grabs and 19 yards in the conference championship game versus Buffalo.
That doesn’t bode well for a spike next Sunday. Admittedly, Kelce has scored in two of his four Super Bowl appearances but was held out of the red zone when he faced the Eagles back in Super Bowl LVII. Even more concerning, Kelce has drawn exactly one end zone target in every Super Bowl except when facing the Eagles. In fact, Kelce does not have a single end zone target in four career games against Philadelphia (including the regular season and playoffs). This prop may lead to big conversation, but it’s one of the bad ones.
“Treacherous”
Travis Kelce to record 1+ reception in each quarter (+175)
Admittedly, this slope is treacherous and this path is reckless, but I like it. Kelce has had at least one catch in 13 of 16 total Super Bowl quarters. Interestingly, the 49ers shut him out in the second quarter of LIV and LVIII. Similarly, the Eagles held him catchless in the second quarter of LVII. However, Kelce did manage a grab in every quarter of Super Bowl LV versus Tampa Bay, which was also the only Super Bowl he has lost.
A spread of 1.5 and an over/under of 49.5 suggests a high-scoring affair with plenty of back and forth. If the Chiefs are trailing, Kelce figures to be involved. While the Eagles remained stout versus opposing tight ends over the regular season (fifth-fewest catches given up), Philly has been generous to the position during the postseason, allowing 28 receptions on 36 targets (78%) to TEs during the playoffs. Previous data suggests that Kelce will be blanked in the second quarter, but this prop has the potential to pay off and will certainly keep viewers following along.
“22”
Travis Kelce to record 22+ rec yds in each half (+120)
I don’t know about you, but I’m feeling like 22 receiving yards per half is totally doable. After all, Kelce has surpassed the above line in five of eight Super Bowl halves. Admittedly, he fell short by a single yard in his initial Super Bowl tilt versus the Eagles, registering 21 receiving yards in the game’s first half and 60 in the contest’s final thirty minutes. At better than 50%, however, this wager is giving happy, free, confused and lonely in the best way, mostly because it’s a trend that’s followed Kelce beyond his Big Game showings.
In fact, the 35-year-old has recorded 22 or more receiving yards in 14 of the 30 halves in which he suited up during the regular season. Furthermore, he eclipsed the above line in two of four halves this postseason (both versus the Texans). Given Kelce’s hit rate, this prop is appropriately miserable and magical. Still, Feb. 9 feels like one of those nights we won’t be sleeping, so why not lean into the fun and end up dreamin’?
“Wildest Dreams”
Travis Kelce to record a 50+ yard reception (+1300)
In fairness to No. 87, he is so tall and handsome as hell. He also does this football thing so (very) well. However, Kelce has managed only four grabs of 50 or more receiving yards (including the playoffs) over his 12-season career.
Interestingly, his longest reception while facing the Eagles was 44 yards in Week 2 of 2017. So, yeah, it’s been a minute. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible, though. Philadelphia’s defense has allowed two catches over 50 receiving yards this season (Week 1 in Brazil vs Green Bay to the Packers’ Jayden Reed for 70 yards and Week 16 at Washington to Dyami Brown for 51 yards). Given that the Eagles are averaging 8.5 yards per reception to tight ends (virtual tie with the Chargers for the lowest average), it seems like this prop is just for pretend. (Though, I’m always here for a nice dress and sunset, baby.)
“Seven”
Saquon Barkley to record 15+ rushing yards in every quarter (+175)
Travis may have converted Taylor into a Red Coater, but Swift grew up donning Midnight Green. With Pennsylvania under this team there are still plenty of beautiful options on which to wager. Chief among them is a special focused on the talents of Barkley. The former Giant has put together a Folklore-like season, leading all running backs in rushing yards per game with an average of 125.3 during the regular season. Astonishingly, that number jumped to 147.3 thus far into the postseason. For context, Barkley has managed at least 118 rushing yards in each of his three playoff appearances this year.
Interestingly, the Chiefs haven’t allowed a running back to record triple-digit rushing yardage at any point this season. Lamar Jackson was the only player to register 100 rushing yards when facing Kansas City back in Week 1. But here’s what makes me want to scream, ferociously: Barkley has played against 31 of 32 NFL teams in his career … with the lone exception being the Chiefs. While K.C. has been stout versus the run, this defense hasn’t faced the likes of Say-Say. Meanwhile, Barkley has rushed for at least 15 yards in each quarter over a 16-game regular season four separate times. More impressively, he logged 15 or more rushing yards in each quarter of two of his three postseason efforts. A total of 60 rushing yards is more than doable; betting that those yards are consistently recorded is knowing all along there was some invisible string.
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