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Jake Michaels
MELBOURNE, Australia — And then there were four. Jannik Sinner. Alexander Zverev. Novak Djokovic. Ben Shelton.
After 11 days of riveting competition at Melbourne Park, just four men remain in contention for Australian Open glory. One of them is looking to defend their crown, two are seeking their maiden Grand Slam title, and one, well, is just chasing more unrivaled greatness.
Here’s why each semifinalist can go on and lift the trophy:
Jannik Sinner (1)
No player in tennis has enjoyed more success than Sinner over the last 12 months. In fact, in 2024, he put together one of the greatest years in the sport’s history, winning the Australian Open, US Open, and ATP Finals, netting over $19 million in prize money, and taking hold of the world’s No. 1 ranking.
Sinner hasn’t quite reached Djokovic levels of dominance at Melbourne Park — who has? — but he’s certainly trending in a similar direction. The 23-year-old has won 15 of his last 16 Australian Open matches, 10 of them without dropping a set. His recent hard-court record at the majors is equally impressive, having prevailed in each of his last 19 matches.
The Italian struggled with an illness and the heat in his fourth-round win over Holger Rune, but was back to his dominant best against Australian eighth seed Alex de Minaur, blowing him off the court and dropping just six games in one of the most one-sided of quarterfinals we’ve ever witnessed.
“I feel like the illness has gone away now,” Sinner declared after coasting into the last four. “I was feeling much, much better. I felt like today was a very great match from my side … the best match of the tournament.”
Sinner is striking the ball as well as ever and refusing to make mistakes, committing the fewest unforced errors this fortnight of the semifinalists. He’s forcing his opponents to beat him, and to this point, nobody is up for the challenge.
His path to the final has also been far less daunting than those on the other side of the bracket. Sinner has yet to face a player who has played in a major semifinal and it’s possible he could win the title without having to go through a single Grand Slam champion.
Sinner will start as a resounding favorite against Shelton, an opponent he has beaten the past four times they’ve played, winning nine consecutive sets. If he passes that test, it will either be Djokovic, the man he beat in last year’s Australian Open semifinals, or Zverev, who he beat in their only 2024 meeting in the Cincinnati final. This tournament is Sinner’s to lose.
Alexander Zverev (2)
He may not have captured that elusive Grand Slam title, but Zverev has been banging on the door for the better part of a decade. The German world No. 2 has played in 10 major semifinals and was a runner-up at the US Open in 2020 and the French Open in 2024.
That effort at Roland Garros seven months back was the highlight of a career-best season for Zverev, in which he won two Masters 1000 titles and tallied 69 wins for the year. He arrived at Melbourne Park in scintillating form and has managed to keep it rolling, looking every bit like the second-best player in the world as he’s breezed through to the last four.
A date with Djokovic at the Australian Open is about as tough a tennis assignment as you can get, but Zverev knows he can beat him. He’s won two of the last four meetings, including a semifinal win on hard court at the Tokyo Olympics. He’s also the fresher of the two, having spent 11 hours and 58 minutes on court compared to Djokovic’s 14 hours and 37 minutes.
And if he is able to prevail over Djokovic, Zverev can take extreme confidence in knowing he has a winning head-to-head record against both Sinner and Shelton.
You get the feeling it’s the serve that will determine just how far Zverev can go. This fortnight, Zverev is landing a ridiculous 71% of his first serves, easily the best strike rate of the four semifinalists. He’s winning 78% of those points.
Against Djokovic, Zverev will need to continue hitting his spots and not allowing the greatest returner of all time to work his way into a rally. Djokovic has preyed on second serves this tournament, winning 60% of points in which his opponent fails to land that first serve.
“I have set a goal that I want to achieve my dream of winning a Grand Slam, and I’m chasing that,” Zverev said after beating Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals. “I’m doing everything I can to be in another [Grand Slam final] on Sunday.”
Novak Djokovic (7)
Nobody in tennis history knows how to win the Australian Open better than Djokovic. A 10-time champion of the event, Djokovic has been beaten at Melbourne Park just five times in the last 15 years. He also holds an ominous 20-1 record in semifinals and finals at the Australian Open.
Despite not lifting a Grand Slam trophy in 2024, Djokovic continues to prove that at 37 years of age he can still beat anyone on tour, on any given day. Two of his most impressive victories have come against world No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz, first to win gold at the Olympic Games in Paris last year and then again Tuesday in an epic Australian Open quarterfinal.
It was in that latter match that Djokovic suffered a leg injury. He went off court and undertook a medical timeout late in the first set against Alcaraz, returning with strapping on his left thigh and appearing unable to move with his usual freedom.
Should we be concerned? Well, yes and no. It’s certainly not going to help him lift the trophy, but he’s proved in Australia on multiple occasions he can go all the way despite battling injury. In 2021, Djokovic tore a muscle in his abdomen. Then, in 2023, he suffered a 3-cm (1.18-inch) hamstring tear. Neither injury could derail his title hopes.
“I’ll take it day by day. It’s really about my recovery. The extra day with no match comes at a good time,” Djokovic said after overcoming Alcaraz. “If I manage to somehow be physically good enough, I think mentally, emotionally, I’m as motivated as I can be.”
An 11th win in Australia would give Djokovic a 25th major title, breaking the tie he currently holds with Margaret Court for most singles Grand Slam titles. And at age 37 years, 8 months, and three days, on Jan. 26, he would also become the oldest man to win a major title.
Ben Shelton (21)
In many ways, Shelton will be playing with house money when he faces Sinner on Friday afternoon. All of the attention will be on his opponent, the reigning champion, and the two men contesting the other semifinal match, meaning he’ll have to deal with far less pressure and expectation than when he reached this same stage at the US Open in 2023. Don’t underestimate how significant that can be.
Despite a relatively disappointing output at last year’s majors, Shelton is a much improved and far more experienced player from that tournament at Flushing Meadows 18 months back.
The 22-year-old American won in Houston, was a runner-up in Basel, and scored two wins over top 10 players, Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, in the second half of the 2024 season, pushing his ranking back inside the top 20. He’s striking the ball harder, making fewer errors, and playing with extreme confidence.
“I’m winning in different ways, for sure,” said Shelton after his quarterfinal triumph over Lorenzo Sonego. “When I was playing here in 2023, US Open 2023, I felt like everything had to be perfect. I was red-lining. I was at my limits. Lately, especially in the matches here, everything hasn’t been perfect. I’ve had to pick up the slack with everything in my game.
“For me, that’s the growth. I’ve been working every single day to become a more well-rounded player. If you only have one thing to rely on, you know, gun misfires or the chamber is empty, you’re in trouble.”
In each match at Melbourne Park this fortnight, Shelton has been tested. In each, he continues to pass with flying colors.
Shelton’s greatest weapon is his serve. He has clocked the fastest one of the tournament at 232kph (144.2mph), has been broken just six times from 98 service games, is landing 66% of his first serves, and winning 79% of those points. More often than not his service games are over in the blink of an eye.
Oddsmakers will suggest Shelton is the least likely of the final four to lift the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup on Sunday evening, but write him off at your own peril.