Ravens listed as 20-point favorites vs. Browns

With the Baltimore Ravens needing a victory to win the AFC North and the Cleveland Browns sitting several key players, Baltimore is a 20-point favorite for Saturday’s divisional matchup, as of Friday afternoon on ESPN BET. It’s the largest spread in Ravens franchise history and the largest spread in the NFL since 2021, when the Arizona Cardinals (-20) beat the Houston Texans 31-5 in Week 7.

Baltimore can guarantee itself a division title and the No. 3 seed in the playoffs with a win Saturday, while Cleveland is fully out of playoff contention and is expected to start Bailey Zappe at quarterback. The Browns have ruled out RB Jerome Ford, RB Pierre Strong, TE David Njoku and CB Denzel Ward for the contest.

The Ravens opened as an 18.5-point favorites at ESPN BET (with some sportsbooks opening at -17.5) and jumped up to -20 upon the news that Zappe would get the nod. While a majority of the betting public is backing Cleveland, according to the number of tickets, many big money bettors appear to be supporting Baltimore, with BetMGM reporting 53% of spread handle; the sportsbook characterized it to ESPN as “good action both ways with the large spread.”

In the last 30 seasons, favorites of 20 or more are just 3-6 against the spread but have covered the last two in a row. No favorite of 18 points or more has lost a game outright in the NFL since 1977, and if Baltimore were to lose straight up at -20 it would tie the largest outright upset in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Research.

ESPN BET lists the Ravens as a -8000 favorite to win the AFC North, with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who would take the division with a win and Baltimore loss Saturday, listed at +2200. The Steelers hold a majority of the bets and money to win the AFC North at the sportsbook, as of Sunday.

Should Pittsburgh lose Saturday’s other AFC North showdown, it would open the door to the playoffs for the Cincinnati Bengals, as they need that win, as well as losses from the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins, to qualify. ESPN BET places the odds of that happening at +1100, but says that it has been the most popular selection in that market by wagers and handle over the last two weeks.