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Nick Wagoner, ESPN Staff Writer
SANTA CLARA, Calif. — As the San Francisco 49ers trudged to the locker room after another injury- and penalty-plagued loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 16, they bore a striking resemblance to the team that found itself in a deep hole at halftime of last season’s NFC Championship Game against the Detroit Lions.
For the first 30 minutes of the game, the Lions looked poised to stake their claim to the NFC crown while the Niners appeared headed for another postseason disappointment. With their backs against the wall, those 49ers managed to claw their way back from a 17-point deficit by rattling off 27 unanswered points.
Last week, there were no such answers. These 49ers dropped to 6-9 — losing five of their past six games — and were eliminated from postseason contention for the first time since 2020.
“It’s just been not clean football across the board,” quarterback Brock Purdy said. “Last couple of years, we played team football for four quarters and I felt like we were pretty dominant. This year, it’s just been hit or miss.”
The 49ers authored that comeback against the Lions 337 days ago. Detroit (13-2) returns to San Francisco on Monday (8:15 p.m. ET, ABC, ESPN, ESPN+) aiming for the NFC’s top seed. And the 49ers, after injuries and a barrage of self-inflicted mistakes derailed their season, are focused on the bigger questions that loom this offseason.
What will a contract extension for Purdy look like? How much will Purdy’s deal alter who stays and who goes? Do the 49ers need to say goodbye to some of their own and bring in more fresh faces? Or make a few small tweaks with most of their own returning? Will Kyle Shanahan shake up his coaching staff?
One way or another, change is coming to the 49ers.
“We have been able to keep a lot of the core pillar guys for a long time but at the end of the day, each year, each team is different,” linebacker Fred Warner said. “The offseason things will happen however they’re going to happen.”
IN MARCH AT the league meeting in Orlando, Florida, 49ers owner Jed York acknowledged that when Purdy’s time arrives, he will be taken care of with what could end up being the largest raise in NFL history.
Purdy will become eligible for a contract extension Jan. 6. As of now, he is slated to make $1.1 million in base salary in 2025, the final year of his rookie contract.
Given Purdy’s production since becoming the starter in December 2022 — after being drafted with the last pick that year — he could reasonably demand a deal at the top of the quarterback market. The Dallas Cowboys‘ Dak Prescott set the market with a four-year, $240 million extension in September.
Since Purdy took over as starter, he ranks fourth in the NFL in QBR (69.3), sixth in passing yards (9,075), first in yards per attempt (8.9), tied for first in expected points added per dropback (0.21) and seventh in passing touchdowns (61).
In the past calendar year alone, other comparable quarterbacks such as Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, Green Bay’s Jordan Love, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Detroit’s Jared Goff have signed extensions worth between $53 million and $55 million annually with an average of $112.4 million in full guarantees.
“The nice thing about contracts is when you play at a high level, you can compare yourself to other people in the league,” tight end George Kittle said. “And when other guys are getting paid $50 [million to] $60 million and you’re a better quarterback than they are, [it’s] hard not to get that same amount of money.
“The Niners are going to figure something out to be as team-friendly as you possibly can but still reward him for the things that he has done and the things that he’s going to continue to do for this organization.”
Multiple league sources say both sides are aiming to work out a lucrative long-term deal this offseason. As matters involving many millions of dollars often are, Purdy’s situation is complicated.
Although he ranks 10th in the league in QBR (65.6) this season, his numbers have dipped in that category (he led the league at 73.4 in 2023), touchdown passes (17 from 31), yards per attempt (8.3 from 9.6) and completion percentage (65% from 69.4%).
Purdy continues to struggle in inclement weather. In five starts with rain or snow at kickoff, he’s 2-3 with a 49.7 QBR and 57.4% completion rate. His QBR is 72.0 with a 67.7% completion rate and the 49ers are 25-10 in 35 other starts.
The 49ers could choose to pay top-of-the-market money to Purdy, whose struggles have coincided with injuries to some of San Francisco’s best offensive players. Purdy has produced well beyond his rookie contract and offered much-needed stability at the position.
There are alternatives. The Niners could let Purdy play out the season and use the franchise tag if they struggle to re-sign him after 2025. They could follow the Packers/Love model and sign him to a short-term deal with a sizable raise to see one more year of production before forking over the top-of-the-market contract.
All of that means finding the right contract numbers could be difficult for Purdy, who says he has grown in some ways but admits that something has been missing this year.
“I feel more comfortable in who I am,” Purdy said, “but also, like, I think I need to get better and get back to playing [with] the chip on my shoulder like it was my first two years of every game, every down trying to prove to myself that I’m the guy for this team.”
IF THE 49ERS and Purdy come to an agreement, there will be an unavoidable trickle-down effect on the roster.
The 2024 49ers have nine players ranking in the top 15 in pay at their position, with end Nick Bosa, running back Christian McCaffrey, Warner, Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, left tackle Trent Williams and receiver Brandon Aiyuk in the top five. That group accounts for about 31.4% of the team’s 2024 cap and is slated to count about 46.5% of the estimated 2025 cap before restructures, releases and/or extensions.
Those costs, combined with the injury toll and the team’s struggles, beg the question of whether they will trim some of the bigger contracts. It’s a process that started in March when they released defensive lineman Arik Armstead, who was their longest-tenured Niner, closing in on a decade with the team. He was let go when the sides couldn’t reach an agreement to lower his $28.53 million salary cap number for 2024.
For many of the highest paid players, it wouldn’t make salary cap sense to move on.
Kittle is a good candidate for an extension of his own coming off one of his best seasons. He’s third among all tight ends in receiving yards (976), second in touchdowns (8), fourth in receptions (68) and first in yards per reception (14.2). But there are others, namely receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, who could be up for discussion.
Samuel restructured his contract in September, a move that would mean if the Niners traded or released him before June 1, 2025, they’d have to absorb a $31.55 million dead money hit on the cap. They could move on with a post-June 1 designation before his March 23 option bonus is due and decrease that number to a $10,751,753 cap hit over the next couple of years.
It has been a disappointing season for Samuel, who was one of the team’s best players consistently throughout camp. He was slowed by injury and illness, posting a career low in scrimmage yards per game (56.1) and yards per touch (8.8) and scoring three touchdowns.
With Aiyuk coming off a serious knee injury, rookie Ricky Pearsall finding his way and Jauan Jennings signed through 2025, the Niners might be open to at least another year of Samuel.
“I don’t think Deebo’s slowed down,” Shanahan said. “When you build up a bunch in camp and then you miss a lot of time in practice, it is hard to maintain that stuff. But by no means do I think he’s lost it or anything.”
Like Samuel, Hargrave had a recent contract restructure that makes it more palatable for the Niners to move on. Each team gets two post-June 1 designations and Hargrave is an even likelier candidate as he would count $8.6 million in dead money in 2025 and $17.485 million in 2026, as opposed to a nearly $25 million in 2025 without the designation.
Other veterans, such as Juszczyk and center Jake Brendel could also be up for discussion. Regardless, the Niners have tough decisions to make with plenty of guys under contract, let alone their many free agents.
SAN FRANCISCO HAS 24 players set for restricted or unrestricted free agency in March. Among the key names: linebacker Dre Greenlaw, cornerback Charvarius Ward and safety Talanoa Hufanga.
Greenlaw and Hufanga are priorities, though their markets are difficult to define. The 49ers value them but both have lengthy injury histories.
Since Hufanga became a full-time starter in 2022, the defense has allowed 16.5 points per game and gone 18-12 in regular-season games when both Hufanga and Greenlaw play. When they both don’t play, San Francisco has given up 24.1 points per game and gone 5-6. In theory, that, combined with positional value, could depress their markets and make keeping them around more affordable.
“Those are two of the better players I’ve been around, and two of the better players on our team, and two of the main reasons we’ve had the success here we’ve had,” Shanahan said. “Hopefully we can do everything we can to work out keeping them here.”
The writing was on the wall for Ward’s departure when the team re-signed cornerback Deommodore Lenoir in November. Otherwise, there are some role players such as offensive linemen Ben Bartch and Jaylon Moore who could be back if the price is right.
If Greenlaw and Hufanga stick around, the defense could look familiar in 2025.
“I think a lot of people are going to be like, ‘Get these guys out of here,'” Bosa said. “But there’s going to be a lot of criticism next year when it looks very similar.”
Change seems more inevitable on offense. Beyond Purdy’s contract and the receiver situation, the Niners need to invest in the offensive line.
Purdy has been pressured on 34.1% of his dropbacks this season, 10th highest in the NFL, and well beyond the 31.5% pressure rate he saw in 2023. Williams should return at left tackle and the 49ers have something in right guard Dominick Puni. All three of the other spots could be in play, given their struggles.
Right tackle Colton McKivitz has improved in 2024 but ranks 53rd among tackles in pass block win rate (84.8%), left guard Aaron Banks is 46th in run block win rate (69%) and Brendel is last among qualified centers in RBWR (62.5%). Banks is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent while McKivitz is entering the final year of his deal and Brendel has two remaining. McKivitz and Brendel have no more guaranteed money in either of their contracts.
“We’re like the team, we’re not good enough,” offensive line coach Chris Foerster said. “Regardless of what the record ends up being at the end of the season, we could have had a more productive season this year.”
SHANAHAN’S 49ERS ARE no strangers to coaching staff turnover. Most changes have been the result of assistants leaving for better jobs. Shanahan fired defensive coordinator Steve Wilks after one season following February’s Super Bowl loss. There could be similar firings this season.
While it would take something catastrophic for Shanahan to be coaching anywhere else in 2025, two coordinator jobs will be watched closely.
After firing Wilks, Shanahan promoted Nick Sorensen to defensive coordinator. In his first year on the job, the defense has been solid in some basic categories, such as yards allowed per game (365.7 ranks eighth in the NFL) and passing yards allowed per game (183.3, third).
But that group is 30th in red zone defense, giving up a touchdown on 65.3% of opponents’ trips inside the 20. It also ranks 24th in third-down defense (41.9%), tied for 19th in scoring (23.3 points/game) and tied for 17th in takeaways (17).
With former coordinator Robert Saleh available and Jets interim coach Jeff Ulbrich, who the Niners wanted to pursue for the job last offseason, potentially options, there will be speculation about another coordinator change. Despite that, Shanahan has offered a vote of confidence in Sorensen.
“Nick has done a good job as a coach,” Shanahan said. “No one’s happy with our results by any means. I think he’s been thrown into a number of situations that I think will make him better going forward.”
The special teams unit also figure to get a long look as that phase has been a consistent disaster this year. Whether in the form of seven missed field goals by kicker Jake Moody, penalties, poor coverage, fakes or muffed punts, the 49ers have struggled with special teams mistakes.
Shanahan has expressed confidence in coordinator Brian Schneider, but the unit ranks last in the NFL in expected points added (minus-38.07, with the next closest team, Baltimore, at minus-21.81).
With two games left to play, there’s evaluating to do. Shanahan and the Niners aren’t ready yet to look forward. But they will soon, and there’s no time to waste if they want 2024 to be a blip on the radar rather than their new normal.
“You have hope every year,” Shanahan said. “You put together the best team possible, you go and practice and you go out there and you battle. So that’s what we do every single offseason. You figure out how to get the best players possible through free agency and the draft, you try to keep your best players as possible, you go to work and you show up for Week 1.”