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Sean Allen
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Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash
Fantasy Hockey
- ESPN.com Fantasy Contributor since 2010
- Part-time anchor at NEWSTALK1010
With the NHL schedule set to soon hit the holiday break — with no games on Dec. 24, 25 or 26 — it’s the perfect time to examine some betting trends from the first three calendar months of the 2024-25 campaign.
Which teams are best when favored at home? Which underdogs are overperforming? Find out the answers there, along with an updated set of Power Rankings, voted on by the ESPN hockey family.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Dec. 13. Betting stats are through Wednesday’s games; points percentages are through Thursday’s games. Victoria Matiash identified betting trends for the West, while Sean Allen handled the East.
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 70.97%
The Capitals excel as underdogs, with a 9-3 record (75.0%) against the spread on the road (61.5% is the league average) and a 5-1 record (83.3%) at home (62.6% league average).
That’s a fun trend, but how often are the Caps going to be considered underdogs as they continue to flirt with the NHL points lead? They are still beating the spread as favorites better than the league rate (6-7 overall), but it’s not as stark as when they are the dogs.
Next eight days: vs. CAR (Dec. 20), vs. LA (Dec. 22), @ BOS (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 69.12%
This week’s 3-2 loss in Anaheim stands out as even more uncommon in light of the Jets’ money-line returns as the road favorite. But while 10-2 remains impressive overall, Winnipeg has a losing 5-7 record on the road altogether since Nov. 14.
Next eight days: vs. MIN (Dec. 21), @ TOR (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 64.29%
If the Devils are rolling into town, watch out! With their punishing top power-play unit, the Devils deliver on the road regardless of favorite status. As road favorites, they’ve won nine of 12 games (75.0%), outperforming the 59.1% league average. Even as road underdogs, they excel, going 3-1 (75.0%) — nearly doubling the overall road underdog win rate of 39.1%.
Next eight days: vs. PIT (Dec. 21), vs. NYR (Dec. 23), vs. CAR (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 68.75%
When favored, Filip Gustavsson & Co. tend to win in tight fashion at home. A strong 8-3 (72.7%) as the favorite, the Wild are a symmetrically opposite 3-8 (27.3%) against the spread when expected to secure the victory at Xcel Energy Center, including two straight losses this week.
Next eight days: vs. UTA (Dec. 20), @ WPG (Dec. 21), vs. CHI (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 70.31%
With a 9-2 record when the home favorite — they’ve lost only three times at T-Mobile Arena altogether — Vegas manages just fine when their top producer doesn’t contribute. The club is 7-2 when Jack Eichel doesn’t register a point.
Next eight days: vs. SEA (Dec. 21), vs. ANA (Dec. 23), @ SJ (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 66.13%
Defense first in Carolina. That hasn’t changed. The Hurricanes have shown clear trends when it comes to game totals. When the line for the Canes is set at 6.5, the game hits the under 17 of 24 times (70.8%), much more often the 57.4% league average. However, at 5.5, it flips, as Carolina has gone over five of seven times.
Next eight days: @ WSH (Dec. 20), @ NYR (Dec. 22), @ NSH (Dec. 23), @ NJ (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 65.63%
By the numbers, the Kings are much more successful when their captain contributes. A rollicking 15-9 when Anze Kopitar collects at least one point, the Kings are only 3-4 otherwise. They’re also 7-2 when favored at Crypto.com Arena.
Next eight days: @ NSH (Dec. 21), @ WSH (Dec. 22)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 63.64%
The Panthers haven’t been broadly viewed as underdogs since they knocked out the Bruins in 2023, but they embrace the moniker whenever it comes up in games. At home, they’ve won two of three as underdogs (66.7%), and they shine even brighter on the road, going 4-1 as underdogs (80.0%), nearly doubling the league’s road underdog win rate of 39.2%.
Next eight days: vs. STL (Dec. 20), @ TB (Dec. 22), vs. TB (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 65.63%
The Maple Leafs have been dominant at home, winning 13 of 17 games (76.5%) as the favorite and also earning the W the one time they were considered home underdogs. That strong home play is based in limiting goals, as games at Scotiabank Arena have also gone under 14 of 18 times on home ice. The unders are a much stronger trend for the Leafs at home, as their games have been under only four of 14 times on the road.
Next eight days: @ BUF (Dec. 20), vs. NYI (Dec. 21), vs. WPG (Dec. 23), @ DET (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 61.29%
Another club that clearly enjoys the comforts of home, the Stars are 12-2 (85.7%) at American Airlines Center when deemed the favorite.
However, it’s a very different tale against the spread on the road, where Dallas — sporting a losing record altogether — is 2-9 (18.2%) to cover when backed to win.
Next eight days: vs. NYR (Dec. 20), @ UTA (Dec. 23), vs. MIN (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 62.50%
Unimposing against the spread when expected to win all season long — 5-11 (31.2%) — the Oilers are improving in this category in recent play. Connor McDavid & Co. have beaten the opposition by a minimum of two goals in four of their past five at Rogers Place.
Next eight days: vs. SJ (Dec. 21), vs. OTT (Dec. 22)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 63.33%
The Lightning have been solid as home favorites, winning eight of 11 games (72.7%), surpassing the 60.9% league average. But it’s notable that at this juncture, more than two months into the season, the Bolts are largely untested against their own division. They’ve played only three games against Atlantic Division opponents, losing all three while failing to cover.
Next eight days: vs. FLA (Dec. 22), @ FLA (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 59.38%
The Canucks’ remarkable road résumé (10-2-2) is translating into an equally outstanding record as the straight-up favorite. They’ve lost only twice when backed by sportsbooks to win in 10 tries, including a narrow 3-2 defeat in Salt Lake City on Wednesday night.
Next eight days: vs. OTT (Dec. 21), vs. SJ (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 55.58%
The Bruins hanging in near the top of the Atlantic has not come through dominance of opponents at home. While they may be 9-8 overall on familiar turf, they’ve covered the spread only three of 16 times when the sportsbooks have favored them at TD Garden (18.8% compared to league rate of 38.5% for home teams).
Next eight days: vs. BUF (Dec. 21), vs. WSH (Dec. 23), @ CBJ (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 56.06%
The Flames are cooking at the Saddledome when holding a perceived edge. Forward Nazem Kadri — sizzling hot of late with a four-game goal streak — and his team have lost just the once in six tries (83.3%) when dubbed the home favorite.
Next eight days: vs. CHI (Dec. 21)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 55.88%
When favored, this team doesn’t often cover the spread at home. The Avs’ dismal 3-11 record (21.4%) under such circumstances serves as stark contrast to their 8-1 success rate straight up when perceived as the better team on the road. More oddly, they sport a winning record when Nathan MacKinnon doesn’t earn a single point.
Next eight days: @ ANA (Dec. 20), vs. SEA (Dec. 22), @ UTA (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 56.45%
The Sens rank fifth in their own division, but you wouldn’t know it based on their record against their rivals. The Sens are 5-2 when facing opponents from the Atlantic and, strangely enough, the two losses are to teams with worse records. They’ve even managed a 4-3 total against the spread while beating up on their divisional foes.
Next eight days: @ VAN (Dec. 21), @ EDM (Dec. 22)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 56.45%
Enjoying a 4-0 road record, Utah is 5-0-1 since Dec. 7, relishing victories over at least one team from every division. The common denominator? Forward Dylan Guenther has registered a minimum of one point in every one of those contests.
Next eight days: @ MIN (Dec. 20), vs. ANA (Dec. 22), vs. DAL (Dec. 23), vs. COL (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 48.53%
The Blues are having a tough time with their divisional opponents, securing the victory only once in six contests. Outside of an early-December 4-1 victory over the Jets, they’ve been outscored 17-8 by other members of the Central.
Next eight days: @ FLA (Dec. 20), @ DET (Dec. 23), vs. NSH (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 51.47%
The Penguins have been successful as home favorites, winning four of five games. However, they’ve struggled to cover, doing so just once in those opportunities (20.0%), below the 38.5% overall rate for home favorites. Their struggles stem from matchups with division foes, where Sidney Crosby and friends are 1-6 on the line and 2-5 against the spread.
Next eight days: @ NJ (Dec. 21), vs. PHI (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 48.48%
Which came first, the Travis Konecny points or the Flyers covering the spread? They manage to cover more often when Konecny gets on the scoresheet (14-10) than not (2-6). The Flyers also vary from league trends for over/under outcomes at home, with the under coming in at a much higher rate at Wells Fargo Center (68.8%) than the league average (53.7%).
Next eight days: vs. CBJ (Dec. 21), @ PIT (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 50.00%
They’ve avoided the home underdog label mostly, being favored in all but one of their home games, but they have not delivered. They are 7-8 on money line and a woeful 3-12 against the spread as the home favorite.
As they ship off players to the West Coast, eventually the books will start leaning toward the visiting side at Madison Square Garden if this slide continues.
Next eight days: @ DAL (Dec. 20), vs. CAR (Dec. 22), @ NJ (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 47.06%
Straight up, the Kraken are proving an undesirable play as a home underdog with a 4-7 record (36.4%) while enjoying more success against the spread, covering in seven of 11 matchups (63.6%). It helps when Jared McCann contributes to the scoresheet; Seattle has won only three times when he has failed to do so.
Next eight days: @ VGK (Dec. 21), @ COL (Dec. 22)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 46.97%
The Isles are two different teams on the road. First, there are the underdog Islanders, a scrappy team that is 6-6 (50% win rate compared to league average 39.1%) and 9-3 against the spread. But then there are the favored Islanders on the road, a team that is a brutal 0-6 on the money line and ATS. For the Islanders to do well, we need to think they are going to lose. Sounds about right.
Next eight days: @ TOR (Dec. 21), vs. BUF (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 48.39%
The Wings can keep things tight when playing in their own division. While they are 3-5 against their rivals, Detroit has covered the spread at a 5-3 rate. Additionally, they’ve covered the spread 10 of 13 times as dogs (76.9%) and eight of 13 times as favorites (61.5%) at home.
Next eight days: vs. MTL (Dec. 20), @ MTL (Dec. 21), vs. STL (Dec. 23), vs. TOR (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 46.97%
The Blue Jackets consistently buck league trends on 6.5 totals. While the league hits the under 57.4% of the time, games with Columbus have gone under in 11 of 32 games (34.4%). Notably, they’ve yet to be involved in a game with a total set at 5.5, showing sportsbooks trust Elvis Merzlikins about as much as fantasy managers (Thursday night’s heroics aside).
Next eight days: @ PHI (Dec. 21), vs. MTL (Dec. 23), vs. BOS (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 43.55%
Just ask a fantasy manager with Sam Montembeault about this tidbit: When the line is set at 5.5, games with Montreal have gone over five of seven times (71.4%), well above the league’s 51.5% over rate. Also, if the sportsbooks back them, get on board: The Habs are 2-0 as favorites this season.
Next eight days: @ DET (Dec. 20), vs. DET (Dec. 21), @ CBJ (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 46.67%
One might be advised to take the under, particularly when the bar is set at 6.5 goals. Games involving the Ducks, who have scored the second-fewest goals this season, have slid below that total mark on 15 of 20 occasions (75%).
Next eight days: vs. COL (Dec. 20), @ UTA (Dec. 22), @ VGK (Dec. 23)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 38.57%
More like “undersharks,” am I right? Though they have not once been labeled the favorite home or away this season, Macklin Celebrini and the rebuilding Sharks are 11-4 (73.3%) against the spread as the home dog and 13-6 (68.4%) away from SAP Center.
Next eight days: @ EDM (Dec. 21), @ VAN (Dec. 23), vs. VGK (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 40.63%
The Sabres are unreliable at home, whether favored or not. That’s not a shocking statement for a team winless in its last 11, but even as home favorites, they’ve won just three of seven games (42.9%). That said, when it is the underdog, Buffalo does manage to beat the spread at home (8-3 for a 72.7% rate that trumps the leaguewide 62.6%).
Next eight days: vs. TOR (Dec. 20), @ BOS (Dec. 21), @ NYI (Dec. 23), vs. CHI (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 39.39%
Not astonishing, considering they’ve scored the third-fewest number of goals in the league, but the Blackhawks have hit the under 13 times and the over five times on the road (72.2% under rate). They also don’t much care for too much rest, posting a 1-8-1 record in games following a break of two days.
Next eight days: @ CGY (Dec. 21), @ MIN (Dec. 23), @ BUF (Dec. 27)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 37.88%
While the disappointing Predators don’t often overcome the odds while traveling, they repeatedly cover. Only 2-10 (16.7%) as road underdogs — including a recent 4-1 win over the Stars in Dallas — Nashville is 8-4 (66.7%) against the spread.
Next eight days: vs. LA (Dec. 21), vs. CAR (Dec. 23), @ STL (Dec. 27)