After the first major of the year, the PGA Tour heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in South Carolina for the 2022 RBC Heritage.
The course, which is one of the favorites on tour, features a loaded field including Cameron Smith, Collin Morikawa, and Justin Thomas, who all finished in the top 10 at Augusta last weekend.
Defending champion Stewart Cink and 2020 champion Webb Simpson are also in the field. While neither has played well to this point in the season, this event could be the one that jump-starts their year.
Which players are the favorites this time around? Who offers good odds? And what props are worthwhile?
Betting analyst Anita Marks and Tyler Fulghum, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and caddie Michael Collins offer their tips to help you win this weekend.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Matt Fitzpatrick
Bearman’s picks: To win (20-1); top-10 finish (+200)
As you can probably tell by previous columns, I love this kid. I played him a bunch of ways last week and although he faded out of the top-10 prop, he paid us off with matchups and top 20. We have a weaker field this week, but he is still getting 20-1 on the board while the big names like Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, and Dustin Johnson get more attention at the top of the betting board. That’s just fine for us as Fitzpatrick loves playing here with a T-4 last year and a couple of T-14s in 2018 and 2020. He’s finished top 14 in 6 of his last 7 stroke-play events, only missing the cut at the Players, being on the wrong side of the weather. Harbour Town is more of a target-golf type course, where distance doesn’t matter, but accurate approaches and a strong short game around the small greens are important. Fitzpatrick is 15th on approach, third in scrambling, 20th in putting, and fifth tee-to-green. This all adds up to being No. 1 on Tour in overall shots gained. His weakness is driving distance (139th), which does not come into play here, setting this course up perfectly for his game. Coming off a strong Masters (T-14th), I expect the 27-year-old to be right there come Sunday and possibly be the latest first-time winner on tour.
Corey Conners
Bearman’s picks: To win (28-1), top-10 finish (+275)
With all the attention on Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, and Rory McIlroy on Sunday, it was easy to miss Conners putting up another solid T-6 finish. For those counting at home, that’s three consecutive top-10s at Augusta National and four top-20s in the past five majors overall. At Hilton Head, another course that demands accuracy and short game, Conners has gone T-21 and T-4 the past two years with seven of eight scores under par. He’s 15th tee-to-green, one of the more accurate drivers on tour and is third in hitting greens, all important factors this week. He’s always had issues with the flat stick, but we are back on Bermuda greens this week, which is good for him. Much like Fitzpatrick, the bigger names are getting the lower odds and there is some value on Conners to continue this strong play at 28-1.
Joaquin Niemann
Bearman’s picks: To win (30-1); top-10 finish (+320)
Speaking of guys with accurate irons and a great short game, Niemann is 25th on approach, sixth around the greens, and sixth tee-to-green. He finished T-5th in his Harbour Town debut in 2020 and has said he loves the course. While Niemann ranks near the bottom of the tour in putting, we are back to Bermuda greens this week, which he has done well on. He likely won’t face anywhere near the circus that followed him and Tiger Woods during the first two rounds of the Masters, but he fared better playing with Tiger, posting a 69 and 74 before fading over the weekend. He was a first-time winner in L.A. back in February, and this course lines up for a possible second title.
Russell Henley
Marks’ pick: To win (35-1)
I’m rolling with a long shot this week. Henley had a T-9 here last year, and his game sets up nicely for this track. Russell ranks 23rd in driving accuracy, ninth in GIR, T-5 in putting average, and seventh in SG: tee-to-green. He is the only golfer teeing it up this week who ranks in the top 25 in all four crucial metrics to win at Harbour Town.
Kevin Na
Collins’ picks: To win (40-1); top-5 finish (8-1)
There were high marks for ballstriking last week at Augusta — that stat means almost as much as putting on the course this week. Harbour Town is a short, tight course that has what Pat Perez calls the best tournament par 3s on the PGA Tour. Na will be in heaven if he hits it even half as well as he did last week.
Matt Kuchar
Collins’ picks: To win (50-1); top-5 finish (10-1)
For a guy who’s won here before and is known for not being a long hitter, Kuchar’s long odds this week surprised me. I saw him unloading his truck — yeah he drove his car here this week — and he looked so excited to be back here that I had to check his number for the week. Can’t believe how high his line is, but that’s because so many big-name big hitters are in the field.
Stewart Cink
Collins’ picks: To win (90-1), top-5 finish (18-1)
As a defending champ and two-time winner of this event, Cink has to be feeling a little Rodney Dangerfield-ish “no respect.” Getting him at 90-1 is a steal. A PGA Tour media official told me Cink is the first player in tournament history to have a picture with his caddie hanging in the clubhouse as a former champ. His caddie is his son Reagan. After he made a hole-in-one last week at the Masters, that top-5 number is looking mighty juicy.
Morgan Hoffmann
Collins’ picks: To win (500-1); top-10 finish (40-1); top 20 (20-1)
Hoffmann is making his first start on the PGA Tour since October 2019. He was diagnosed with muscular dystrophy in 2016 and has been doing some amazing things trying to get his body to a place where he can play golf again. I spoke with him for a while on my radio show Tuesday and his attitude about golf and what this week means to him made me believe a top 20 finish is not out of the question. Even if you don’t want to take a flier on him to win, a $10 bet on a top-10 finish will make you feel warm and fuzzy, and if it hits, you’ll be heading to Costa Rica to find the health retreat he is building.
Props
Billy Horschel
Marks’ pick: Top-5 finish (+750)
Horschel has not missed a cut since the U.S. Open. His iron play has been terrific, he ranks sixth in GIR this season and is also 21st in driving accuracy, which is one of the most important metrics on this track. Horschel also putts well on Bermuda greens.
Corey Conners
Marks’ pick: Top-5 finish (+550)
Conners is one of the most consistent golfers on tour. He loves Pete Dye courses that are short and demand accuracy on approach. He ranks 15th this season in SG T2G, which says he will do well this week.
Webb Simpson
Bearman’s pick: Top-10 finish (+330)
Simpson is a plug-and-play guy at Hilton Head, a consistent presence on my card here every year. He won two years ago with four scores at 68 or better and has been no worse than T-16 over his past five appearances. He also has a runner-up in 2013, losing in a playoff to Graeme McDowell. My only issue is with his recent form, having no finishes higher than T-35 this calendar year and only one top-10 finish on the season. His substandard play has been a surprise, coming off a 2021 season in which he had six top 10s. He showed some flashes of coming out of the slump at Augusta last week, but still faded to 35th. This is one of Webb’s favorite events (Wyndham Championship being another) and the site of his most recent win, but it’s hard to take him to win with the way he is playing. I think the course will get him back on track and a top-10 finish will be the payoff.
Marks’ pick: Top-20 finish (+165)
Harbour Town is Webb’s course — no one has a better track record — winning in 2020 and finishing in the top 20 the past five years. Simpson finishing in the top 20 is easy money.
Kevin Kisner
Marks’ pick: Top-20 finish (2-1)
Kisner had excellent iron play at the Masters — finishing ninth in SG on approach. He excels on Pete Dye courses that are not long and has two top-15 finishes here.
Kevin Na
Marks’ pick: Top-20 finish (+210)
Na led the field in SG on approach at the Masters — so he is striking the ball extremely well. He thrives on shorter courses where he can hang with the big boys, and is masterful from 125 to 175 yards out.
Matt Kuchar
Bearman’s pick: Kuchar top-20 finish (+240)
Kuchar is a horse for this course with a win (2014), six top-10s, 17 of 18 made cuts, and close to $3M in career earnings here. His short game is right up there with the best players as we saw in Houston two weeks ago with his runner-up finish. But Kuchar has not won on tour since claiming his ninth victory in January 2019, so we are just going to play the prop market with him.
Alex Noren
Bearman’s pick: Tourney matchup (-120) over Jordan Spieth
This is more of a fade on Spieth, who has been close to awful since his runner-up finish at Pebble Beach back in early February. Since then, Spieth finished no higher than T-26 and has three of 16 rounds in the 60s. Now he goes to a tight course that won’t suit a guy ranked 138th in driving accuracy on tour. After playing well at Hilton Head a decade ago and not playing from 2016 to 2018, he has gone T-54 and T-68 here the last two years. As for Noren, he has had top 30s in all three appearances and finished in the top 30 in five of his past six events on tour. It’s close to even money here, and one guy is playing way better than the other.
PGA Daily Fantasy Picks
Patrick Cantlay ($10,000)
Cantlay’s game fits Pete Dye courses well due to his precision, creativity, and steadiness on and around the green. He has two T-3 finishes and a T-7 here from 2017 to 2019. — Fulghum
Russell Henley ($9000)
Henley ranks first in the field in SG on approach. He has made 15 straight cuts on Tour. — Fulghum
Tyrell Hatton ($8600)
Hatton finished third at the RBC Heritage in 2020 and has been in great form. He is sub-10% rostered — Fulghum
Alex Noren ($8300)
Noren has an elite short game. He gained 15.3 strokes on approach over his past 3 events — Fulghum
Charles Howell III ($7100)
Howell III is coming off a fourth-place finish at the Valero Texas Open and is sub-5% rostered — Fulghum
Cameron Tringale ($7000)
This is a dart throw. Tringale is regularly at the $8,000 to $9,000 price range — Fulghum