With one week left until the Masters, the PGA tour heads to San Antonio for the 2022 Valero Texas Open. Defending champion and Texas native Jordan Spieth will headline the field, looking for his first win since last year’s event. Joining Spieth will be Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and reigning Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama.
With plenty of golfers looking to clinch their spot in the Masters next week, which players are the favorites? Who offers good odds? And what props are worthwhile?
Betting analysts Chris “The Bear” Fallica, Anita Marks, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and caddie Michael Collins offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Jordan Spieth
Collins’ pick: To win (+1600)
Yeah, I know it seems chalk, but hey, if you started with $1 and are left with $2, it’s still a win, right? Yes! So stop complaining. How can you not look at Spieth as the ultimate “hedge” at this event? You think he might be a smidge motivated after not making the weekend at Match Play in Austin, where he went to college? I’d say there are some things lining up that will make us look back and say, “Well yeah, in hindsight it was pretty obvious.” (Can you feel my eye roll?) While the payout isn’t what most bettors chase, it’s as safe a play as you’re gonna get in golf.
Corey Conners
Bearman’s picks: to win (18-1); top-10 finish (+200)
Conners is coming off a 6-1 match play record last week and 3rd place destruction of Dustin Johnson in prime position to notch his 2nd career win. His first win was here at TPC San Antonio three years ago, where he recorded four rounds in the 60s for a course record 20 under par. He also finished T-14 here last year in his bid for back-to-back titles. Conners ranks 3rd in shots gained: total, 2nd in approach and 1st in ball striking in the last 12 rounds at TPC SA. And make no mistake, with the tight fairways and long course, this is an approach and ball striking course, which fits the Canadian’s game. Prior to last week’s 3rd place finish at the Match Play, Conners recorded a T-26 in the tough weather at Sawgrass and T-11 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 18-1 odds is shorter than normal due to the weak field, but is still a nice number for a guy who has won here before and is in good form.
Chris Kirk
Fallica’s picks: To win (+2500); top-10 finish (+275)
This is the one event where I like to avoid the big names that are playing. I view them playing as more of a “let me tinker with some things prior to the Masters” and if they miss the cut, or finish outside the Top 25, so be it. Do they really want a grind this week? For that reason, I’ll go with someone who isn’t in the field like Kirk, who has three Top 15s in his last four events and three Top 8 finishes in his last six trips here. He’s also Top 15 in SG: Total and 10th in SG: Tee-to-green. The Georgia native would love nothing more than to earn his way into the field this week.
Marks’ picks: To win (+2500); tourney matchup (-110) over Abraham Ancer
Kirk tied for 6th here last year and is in good form. He has finished 14th or better in his past four starts, played well in Phoenix and crushed it on the Florida Swing (5th at Arnold Palmer & 7th at Honda). He plays well on this track and has extra motivation to win this week — with an invite to the Masters waiting for him after round 4.
Bearman’s picks: To win (35-1); top-10 finish (+330)
Whenever handicapping the event right before the Masters, I always look for player not in the Masters field that has that extra motivation to grab a seat on that Sunday night charter to Augusta. Kirk, a Georgia native, fits that narrative and is playing well enough to grab the final bid. Prior to being on the wrong side of the draw at The Players, Kirk had three consecutive top-15 finishes, going T-14 in Phoenix, T-7 at Honda and T-5 at Bay Hill. He didn’t qualify for the match play last week, so he comes in rested.
He’s been a bit “hit or miss” at the Valero, with four top-13 finishes surrounded by 2 missed cuts. He was T-6 last year with a 67-68 weekend and T-8 in 2018 and 2015. Kirk comes in 15th in shots gained, 10th tee-to-green and 16th around-the-green. His game is in good form and he has that last spot in The Masters in his home state waiting for him.
Keegan Bradley
Fallica’s picks: To win (+3500), top-10 finish (+350)
Bradley’s putter has let him down at times, but he’s been great off the tee and tee-to-green this year. Putting is the most random part of the game, so at some points a few putts will fall. He put together two solid weeks at Bay Hill and The Players prior to the Match Play and doesn’t have a spot in the Masters field. He is another one who could make some noise this week.
Dylan Frittelli
Collins’ picks: To win (+7000); top-5 finish (+1400)
Every year there’s that guy, who’s not qualified for the Masters and a win is the only way he’d get in. Frittelli is that guy this year. While on paper his play doesn’t look spectacular, he’s made his last 3 cuts on brutally tough courses (Honda, Arnold Palmer, Players) and in extreme conditions giving us an indication that his game is trending in a direction that’s ripe for a breakout week. After taking the last two weeks off, Frittelli should be well rested and ready to fire this week in Texas.
Props
Jordan Spieth
Fallica’s pick:Top-10 finish (+160)
It is hard to see the defending champ not playing well this weekend, even with the specter of Augusta next week. Since giving away the lead at Pebble, he hasn’t posted a Top 25 finish, which could mean this is a confidence building event for him.
Gary Woodland
Marks’ pick: Top-5 finish (+700)
Woodland is playing his best golf at the moment — sporting a pair of top 5 finishes. He had a T-6 last year at Valero, and putts well on bentgrass.
Charley Hoffman
Collins pick: Top-5 finish (+1000)
Hoffman is the all-time leading money winner at this event by a huge margin. He’s got a win and two runner-ups in In his past five starts. It’s a place for him that’s gotta feel like your favorite old sweatshirt, always comfy and perfect. Here’s the bad news… Hoffman enters TPC San Antonio after an extremely weak 2022. 5 events: 1 WD, 2 MC’s, and two finishes outside the top 65. The good news? That’s why this number is so nice and you can take advantage of it.
Fallica’s picks: Top-10 finish (+600); top-20 finish (+300)
Hoffman has a win and three runner-up finishes here. That weighs a bit more than his current form, which suggests he will not be in the mix. With so many big names absent this week, the horse for this course could be a nice Top 10 play to throw some lunch money at.
Bearman’s picks: Top-10 finish (+600); top-20 finish (+300)
In years past, there was a spot reserved for Hoffman in the “picks to win” portion of this column. The all-time money winner at this event at $4.5M, Hoffman is a perfect 15-for-15 making the cut and has a record seven top-10 finishes at the event. Nine of his 11 appearances at TPC San Antonio have been in the top-13. So why are we just playing the prop market and not taking a long stab at an outright? His form this year has been nothing short of awful. His best finish in 2022 is 67th in Phoenix. His best finish this season was a T-22 in the Fortinet Championship back in September. His last top 20 on Tour was 10 months ago at the Charles Schwab. But if there is one course that can get Hoffman back on track, it’s this one. If you think the course is a special kind of magic for Hoffman, there is a wide variety of prices out there (50-1 at Caesars and as high as 100-1 at some books).
Brendan Steele
Marks’ picks: Top-10 finish (+600); First Round Leader (+8000)
Steele won here in 2011, and has made every cut at Valero. This is his favorite track and he knows how to maneuver his way around all 18. He was 1st in SG: Off The Tee at The Players and finished T-13.
Maverick McNealy
Marks’ picks: Top-20 finish (+160)
I wouldn’t be surprised if McNealy won this week. His game fits all the metrics, especially putting — where he is ranked T-23rd this season. McNealy is a tremendous putter within 5 feet and he needs a win to play at the Masters — so he will have a little extra motivation.
Abraham Ancer
Bearman’s pick: top-10 finish (+210)
Ancer is ranked 16th in the world and is one of the top players in the field. After a somewhat up and down start to 2021-22 season, Ancer crushed World No. 3 Colin Morikawa in the round of 16 and made it to the quarterfinals of last week’s Match Play before running into the Corey Conners express. His top finish here is T-23 and he has made the cut in all four attempts, so he might be a great play for your DFS lineup.
Kevin Streelman
Marks’ pick: Top-20 finish (+300)
Streelman is coming in with extra swag as his alma mater, the Duke Blue Devils are in the NCAA Final Four this weekend. Imagine Streelman winning the same week his Blue Devils win a national championship. He loves this track and has finished in the top 10 his past two starts, so a top-20 finish at plus money seems like a lock.
Brandt Snedeker
Fallica’s picks: Top-10 finish (+1600), Top-20 finish (+700)
Much like Hoffman, Snedeker is totally off form. He’s missed five straight cuts since a T-14 finish at the AMEX. He was 6th here last year and 15th in 2018, so this could be a spot where Snedeker puts together a decent week and posts a fringe finish.
Austin Smotherman
Marks’ pick: Top 40 finish (+170)
Smotherman has had success on this track on the Korn Ferry Tour — where he led after rounds 1 and 2 in 2020. He played well at the Valspar, finishing ranked top 10 in SG on approach and likes to get out to fast starts. I like his history at TPC San Antonio.
Collins’ pick: Winner to Birdie 72nd hole — Yes (+275)
A couple things to remember. The 18th hole is a sometimes reachable par 5 and the tournament wants it to come down to the last hole, so the hole location is always in the same spot. That means caddies and players all know what the putt does around the hole. Plus, there could be a playoff but that won’t matter. As long as the guy who wins is the one who made a birdie on 18 in regulation, you will win.