Following one of the most unique regular seasons in NHL history, the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs represented a bit of a return to normalcy, as we had a 16-team bracket, and fans came back to arenas to varying degrees across the continent.
Fourteen of those teams have been eliminated, and we’re on to the Stanley Cup Final between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens.
Usually, these two clubs play in the Atlantic Division; thanks to the realignment in 2021 due to COVID-19 protocols, Game 1 of the finals will be the first time they’ve met all season. Which team has the upper hand? Let’s compare the two in eight categories and, of course, make our prediction on who will skate away with the Cup this summer.
Note: Advanced stats are from Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
First line: Montreal’s top line of Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher and Artturi Lehkonen aren’t going to wow anyone with their offensive stats. (They’ve combined for just five goals this postseason, including zero from Danault.) However, they represent perhaps the best defensive shutdown line in these playoffs — and a big reason why the Vegas Golden Knights‘ top six scored only one goal in the semifinal series.
The Lightning’s top line of Brayden Point flanked by Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov is one of the most potent in the league, scoring nine goals together at 5-on-5 in the playoffs — although they surrendered seven. Kucherov leads the playoffs with 27 points in 18 games. Point had a nine-game goal-scoring streak snapped in Game 7 against the New York Islanders, but he leads the playoffs with 14 goals. Palat (9 points) is a solid “glue guy” on the line. Advantage: Tampa Bay
Forward depth: The Canadiens comfortably roll out four lines. The second line of Tyler Toffoli, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield has added pop, and the semifinals was a coming-out party for the 20-year-old Caufield. After signing from Wisconsin in April, the Hobey Baker Award winner played 10 regular-season games and was a healthy scratch to start the playoffs. He took off against Vegas, scoring a series-high four goals, giving Montreal a flash of the top-end talent it craves. Montreal’s third line has shown flashes of offensive punch, but it’s the fourth line of Joel Armia, Eric Staal and Corey Perry that has annoyed the heck out of opponents, swarming them via the forecheck.
The Lightning also boast considerable depth. Steven Stamkos (17 points in 18 games) anchors their second line with center Anthony Cirelli, who had a strong series against the Islanders, and Alex Killorn (17 points in 18 games). Their checking line was a star in their Stanley Cup run last season, and Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde and Barclay Goodrow have been effective again during this postseason. Their fourth line features Tyler Johnson, Ross Colton and playoff good luck charm Pat Maroon, who is trying to win his third straight Stanley Cup. Advantage: Tampa Bay
Defense: Montreal often calls its top four — Ben Chiarot, Shea Weber, Joel Edmundson and Jeff Petry — the four Clydesdales because of the heavy workload they shoulder. They all average from 23 to 26 minutes per game. The third pairing is averaging 13 or fewer minutes. The Clydesdales play heavy, responsible hockey.
Victor Hedman is considered the best defenseman in the NHL; even in what was a down year for him defensively, he managed his fifth straight Norris Trophy nomination. He has 16 points in 18 games, averaging 24:42 per game, primarily skating with Jan Rutta. Ryan McDonagh gives the Lightning a top-pairing defenseman on their second group; he is paired with Erik Cernak. Mikhail Sergachev has only two points in 18 games; not many would have expected his more defensive-oriented partner David Savard to have more points (three), but here we are. Advantage: Tie
Goaltending: Reports of Carey Price‘s demise weren’t necessarily exaggerated; they just only applied to the regular season. The 33-year-old posted the second-lowest save percentage of his career (.901), as his longtime goaltender coach, Stephane Waite, was fired midseason. “Playoff Price” is different. He is as responsible for the Canadiens making it here as anyone, and his numbers are sterling: 12-5, .934 save percentage, one shutout.
Stamkos called Andrei Vasilevskiy “the best goalie in the world,” and there’s ample evidence to back up the claim. Vasilevskiy has been nominated for the Vezina Trophy in four straight seasons and is the favorite to win his second award for a stellar regular season. In the playoffs, the Lightning goalie has a .936 save percentage and a 1.99 goals-against average, with four shutouts. In four straight series dating back to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final, Vasilevskiy has pitched a shutout in each of the Lightning’s series-clinching victories. Advantage: Tie
Coaching: For Games 1 and 2, the Canadiens will be led by interim interim coach Luke Richardson, as Dominique Ducharme is still serving 14 days of isolation after a positive COVID-19 test. As a refresher, Ducharme took over in February after the team fired Claude Julien. Richardson and the staff have gone 3-1 in Ducharme’s absence, really honing in on the Canadiens’ defensive identity. Their 1-3-1 scheme totally stifled the Golden Knights’ skilled players. Expect heavy traffic in the neutral zone yet again against an even more talented Tampa Bay team.
Jon Cooper is in his ninth season coaching the Lightning, and this is their third Stanley Cup Final appearance with him at the helm. Cooper has excelled in two aspects with Tampa Bay: getting the players to buy into exerting as much effort defensively as they do offensively, as the Lightning have a postseason goals-against average of 2.06; and instilling a resiliency in them, as the Bolts are 14-0 in the playoffs after a loss, dating back to a 2019 first-round sweep at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Advantage: Tampa Bay
Health: Jake Evans, who was concussed by Mark Scheifele in the second round, returned to regular practice on Sunday, taking the place of Armia on the team’s fourth line, as Armia entered the NHL’s COVID-19 protocol. Evans appears good to go. Forward Jonathan Drouin took a leave from the team in April for personal reasons. Other than that, the only absence the Canadiens are managing is that of Ducharme.
The Lightning are healthy, insofar as they aren’t missing players in their lineup. It’s been reported that Hedman is dealing with a lower-body injury that will require offseason surgery. Stamkos has been coy about playing through discomfort since returning from injury at the start of the playoffs. Kucherov left Game 6 against the Islanders after his first shift, and he didn’t look like entirely like himself in Game 7 — although he said there was no chance he wouldn’t have played in that contest. Advantage: Tampa Bay
Special teams: The matchup to watch here is Montreal’s stingy penalty kill against Tampa Bay’s high-octane power play. Montreal’s penalty kill has been terrific. The Habs have scored more short-handed goals (four) than they’ve allowed power-play goals this postseason (three), and they enter the series having killed off 30 straight opposing man advantages. Montreal’s power play is decent, going 9-for-43 (20.9%) in the postseason. Seven different Habs have scored on the power play during these playoffs.
The best way to handle the Tampa Bay power play is to not take penalties, because the Lightning are going to score on the power play. The Lightning are clicking at 37.7% in the playoffs, going 20-for-53. Kucherov has scored 17 of his 27 points on the power play. Tampa Bay doesn’t have the penalty kill efficiency of the Canadiens but is fourth in the playoffs at 83% short-handed. Advantage: Tampa Bay
Will of the Hockey Gods: The Canadiens are trying to win their first Stanley Cup — and the first for Canada — since 1993. Montreal is one of the most successful franchises in professional sports, with 24 Stanley Cup championships. But this group is divorced from that legacy: a scrappy underdog team that no one expected could challenge for the Cup this postseason. The breaks they’ve gotten along the way — the injury to John Tavares, the suspension of Scheifele — and the magic in performances from players such as Price and Caufield have made this feel like it could just be the Canadiens’ year. Oh, and they’re a pretty good hockey team too.
While the NHL doesn’t have by-the-book dynasties in the salary-cap era (since the 2005-06 season), a Lightning victory would represent a fourth multiple Stanley Cup winner in the past decade and the second back-to-back victor in the past seven seasons. The question on the “team of destiny” front: Will the Hockey Gods honor the salary-cap machinations of the Lightning or smite them for their fortuitous accounting? Advantage: Montreal
Series pick: Lightning in 7. As it showed in the Islanders series, Tampa Bay is as adept at shutting teams down as it is rolling offensively. That versatility and the Lightning’s resiliency will allow them to survive a challenge from Montreal, which has found its stride at the perfect time. “Montreal makes you work for every inch,” said Point, and he’s right. But in the end, the Lightning will earn their second straight championship.