The 2021 Stanley Cup Final has arrived, and there are only a handful of candidates with a shot at the Conn Smythe Trophy for playoff MVP — including one who could still win even if his team loses.
Members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association vote to elect the playoff MVP at the end of the Stanley Cup Final. Since 2000, there have been five goalies, seven centers, three wingers and five defensemen to win the award, including Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman, who won it last season.
Here’s a look at the field as we enter the last round of competition between the Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens. Odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
Vasilevskiy was +300 for the Conn Smythe when the third round opened but is now the betting favorite. His numbers are stellar: .936 save percentage, 1.99 goals-against average and four shutouts, three of which have come in the deciding game of the previous three series. His teammates have taken to calling him everything from the backbone of the team to “the best goalie in the world” (the latter courtesy of captain Steven Stamkos), and those endorsements can resonate with voters. A likely Vezina Trophy winner, he was their de facto MVP during the regular season, too.
Despite some other options, he’s the top choice among the Lightning and could become the first goalie to win the Conn Smythe since Jonathan Quick with Los Angeles in 2012.
If the Canadiens upset the Lightning to win the Stanley Cup, Price is going to be the MVP, unless something unforeseen and calamitous happens in the Final. But if the Canadiens lose to the Lightning, there’s still a lane for Price to become the sixth player in NHL history to win the Conn Smythe in a losing effort. Some things are already established to that end.
His reputation as a clutch championship tournament goalie has been cemented. He’s posted ridiculous 2021 postseason numbers (.934 save percentage, 2.02 goals-against average) in leading an absolute underdog — the Habs were 18th overall in the regular season and +2000 picks to win the Cup — to the final round.
Price would likely need to outplay or match the series that Vasilevskiy has and probably for the Stanley Cup Final to go seven games. If that happens, the Lightning could split the MVP vote among a few players, allowing Price to break through as a clear choice on the other side, becoming the first MVP on a losing team since goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere led the Cinderella Mighty Ducks of Anaheim to the 2003 Final.
He leads the playoffs with 27 points in 18 games for a 1.50 points-per-game average, tying Evgeni Malkin for the highest average since 1997 (minimum 18 games). Malkin posted that mark in 2009, which netted him the Conn Smythe for the Pittsburgh Penguins. If Kucherov is able to continue this effort — and if there are no deleterious effects from his Game 6 injury against the New York Islanders — he could leap over Vasilevskiy for MVP honors.
A lingering question: Would any of the voters pull back support of Kucherov because of the Lightning’s creative salary-cap accounting in the regular season, which saw him miss all 56 games with hip surgery but return for Game 1 of the playoffs? As a protest vote of sorts?
Point leads the playoffs with 14 goals in 18 games, which is just a remarkable total when you consider no other player is in double digits for the 2021 postseason. His history-seeking streak of nine goals in nine straight games was one away from tying an NHL record. It would take a heck of a final round, but he’s within a reasonable distance of Jari Kurri‘s 1985 record of 19 goals in a single postseason — although Kurri needed only 18 games to pull that off. (Thanks, Gretzky.)
There’s still a chance Point ends up as playoff MVP with some final-round heroics. Keep in mind that the voters strongly considered him last season before settling on Hedman.
Total, utter long-shot time. The rookie is instant offense in the playoffs, with four goals and five assists in 15 games, and with the speedy, kinetic way he plays, he has been a revelation this postseason. The Canadiens are 11-4 since Caufield entered the lineup, and his goals in the last two games against the Vegas Golden Knights were daggers.
He probably doesn’t have the gaudy totals necessary to overcome Price’s MVP credentials if Montreal wins, but a huge final series with a storybook narrative — “Wisconsin-born 5-foot-7 rookie leads Canadiens to Stanley Cup” — and it might be worth a Hail Mary wager on the kid.