With the last few top free agents coming off the market in recent weeks, most of the dust has settled on the peculiar 2020-21 Major League Baseball hot stove season. It’s time to take stock.
The last time we did this was just before the virtual winter meetings took place in nowhere-land back in December. The intent then was to set a baseline for where each team stood before its offseason plan fully kicked in. Now that clubs have reported to spring training and exhibition season is about to begin, it’s the perfect time to review how things have evolved.
Team rosters and season simulations are based on the assumptions that the following things remain true once we get into the regular season:
1. Only AL teams will have a full-time designated hitter.
2. Five teams from each league will make the playoffs.
3. The season will be 162 games long.
Let’s see how all 30 MLB clubs stack up as we set out on the long road of the 2021 baseball season:
Power rating: 104.2
Sim results: 107.1 wins | 99% made playoffs | 46% won pennant | 32% won title
Offseason grade: C (-1.2 wins over 2020 roster)
Before I updated all the numbers and integrated new research and ran simulations for this piece, the last time I went through the process a few weeks ago, the Dodgers rated easily as baseball’s best team and the clear favorite to repeat as World Series champions. Then they went out and signed Trevor Bauer and re-signed Justin Turner. Now L.A. ranks first in my forecasts in park-neutral run creation, first in run prevention and second in team defense. That, folks, is how you end up with a team with a baseline win forecast of 107 wins. Such a thing simply should not happen. Of the 10 primary team categories I generate scouting-like ratings for, hitting for average is the only column in which L.A. doesn’t rate as at least one standard deviation better than average.
Power rating: 96.3
Sim results: 96.1 wins | 87% made playoffs | 28% won pennant | 14% won title
Offseason grade: C (-4.7 wins over 2020 roster)
The Yankees are a star-laden team that projects to rank in the top five across baseball in both park-neutral runs created and runs prevented. They lack team speed and the defense projects as so-so, but this is mostly a high-powered, deep outfit devoid of a season-threatening weakness. That is, New York appears that way until you apply the “if healthy” equivocation. The Yankees’ medical flag is red, as it must be based on what has happened the past few seasons. That was true even before GM Brian Cashman fashioned a new starting rotation that will eventually include three stars (Jameson Taillon, Corey Kluber and Luis Severino) who threw a combined 18 pitches last season. If healthy, that Gerrit Cole-led rotation could be baseball’s best. If healthy, this Yankee roster is more than good enough to snap New York’s pennant drought. If healthy. If.
Power rating: 94.5
Sim results: 95.7 wins | 85% made playoffs | 20% won pennant | 11% won title
Offseason grade: C (0.0 wins over 2020 roster)
The Braves’ late-winter re-upping with Marcell Ozuna put Atlanta right back where it ended the 2020 season from a talent standpoint, with a difference in simulated wins of pretty close to zero. That, however, understates the importance of the signing when it comes to the Braves’ chances to repeat in the NL East. That says less about the Braves’ measured approach to the offseason and more about the Mets’ aggressive program of adding veteran talent.
Thanks to the addition of Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, along with the eventual return of Mike Soroka, the Braves figure to have more rotation stability in 2021. On offense, whether it’s because of roster tweaking or regression, this year’s club figures to have just a touch less power, while enjoying a little more flash in terms of speed and defense. The bottom line is that the Braves remain the primary threat to the Dodgers in the NL pecking order, but they are a lot closer to the teams behind them (Padres, Mets) than they are to L.A.
Power rating: 92.9
Sim results: 92.8 wins | 77% made playoffs | 20% won pennant | 9% won title
Offseason grade: C (-0.9 wins over 2020 roster)
A year removed from their place in one of baseball’s most disappointing recent scandals, the 2021 Astros still don’t figure to win any People’s Choice awards, but they do figure to remain in the thick of the championship chase. Despite the absence of ace Justin Verlander and the departure of franchise cornerstone George Springer, Houston should field a winning-level rotation and one of baseball’s most potent offenses.
The Astros’ rotation is potentially dynamic but also more unproven than it was during the franchise’s recent peak. Youngsters such as Cristian Javier, Forrest Whitley, Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia all should see starts this season and, during a season when pitching workloads are a riddle to be solved by a bunch of managers who had never dealt with anything like the 2020 season, too much youth in that area could be a problem. Or … it could be a plus. No one knows.
Power rating: 90.6
Sim results: 91.1 wins | 70% made playoffs | 15% won pennant | 6% won title
Offseason grade: C+ (1.2 wins over 2020 roster)
The Twins’ late-winter activity (re-signing Nelson Cruz, signing closer Alex Colome) helped reestablish Minnesota as the favorite in the AL Central over the fast-approaching White Sox. This figures to be a slightly different-looking group, with a more diverse offense that packs a little bit less power but posts an improved collective batting average. The bottom line isn’t that much different, but the hope is that the added diversity will result in a little more consistency and a lot more postseason success. On the latter front, a bullpen that rates as elite could be a big factor, with a big three of Colome, Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey leading the way.
Power rating: 90.1
Sim results: 90.6 wins | 66% made playoffs | 9% won pennant | 4% won title
Offseason grade: B+ (7.2 wins over 2020 roster)
This has been a banner offseason for the Mets, at least when it comes to setting up the 2021 team. With the additions of Carlos Carrasco, Francisco Lindor and Trevor May, among others, the Mets have moved into prime position to challenge the powerful Braves in the NL East. It’s not a perfect roster. The bullpen has some flab, and the team defense looks weak, despite the newly introduced magic of Lindor. But New York will hit for elite power and feature a classic Mets starting rotation. Nevertheless, when you zero in on the distribution of talent across the roster, the Mets are a bit top heavy. Having stars is good. Having drags on wins at the end of the roster is not. The pressure will be on unproven manager Luis Rojas to navigate around the deficiencies in his arsenal.
Power rating: 89.6
Sim results: 91.6 wins | 70% made playoffs | 7% won pennant | 4% won title
Offseason grade: C (0.4 wins over 2020 roster)
The Padres’ white whale is the Dodgers, so it’s fair to look at these projections through that prism. My system just doesn’t see the Padres as being on the Dodgers’ level just yet. It doesn’t see any team as being on the Dodgers’ level, which kind of sums up the Padres’ challenge for the next 14 years. (That is the length of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s new contract, if you haven’t been following along.)
The Padres can’t really worry about what the Dodgers are doing. The Dodgers have had seasons of relative — for them — underachievement, like 2018, and San Diego has to be poised to take advantage if 2021 turns out to be a season like that. And even if it isn’t, the Padres and Mets appear to be clear favorites for wild-card berths at this way-too-early juncture. Keep getting into October, and good things will eventually happen.
Power rating: 88.7
Sim results: 88.2 wins | 54% made playoffs | 9% won pennant | 4% won title
Offseason grade: C (-2.2 wins over 2020 roster)
After sitting on their hands for most of the winter, the A’s went on a late bullpen spending spree, inking Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo and Trevor Rosenthal in short order. The new bullpen doesn’t quite stack up to what the end-of-2020 group would have projected to do, led by departed closer Liam Hendriks, but the drop-off is minor, and for this roster, that might be enough. The A’s have a roster of clear strengths — power, patience and elite defense among the position players, a first-division rotation — and few holes. Repeating in the AL West is not out of the question, but Oakland does not have as much baseline talent as the Astros. However, it’s pretty close, and a month ago, you would not have said that was the case.
Power rating: 87.5
Sim results: 87.8 wins | 53% made playoffs | 9% won pennant | 3% won title
Offseason grade: C+ (-1.6 wins over 2020 roster)
The White Sox were one of the more aggressive teams during the early part of the offseason, and the early plaudits that approach generated helped Chicago cruise through the latter part of the winter. You know a team has arrived when it is able to focus on plugging the holes in the back half of its roster. For instance, you have to get pretty far down the Dodgers’ 40-man roster before you find a player whose presence in the lineup would constitute anything resembling a hole. The White Sox aren’t there yet, and you would have liked to see them make some additional value plays late in the offseason when so many capable veterans were left in free-agent limbo.
None of this is to undercut what figures to be a very exciting season on the South Side, as the White Sox vie with the Twins for AL Central supremacy. The keys to that challenge will be the performance of the bottom half of the White Sox’s rotation and what right now seems to be a well below-average team defense. The White Sox also project as one of the more undisciplined hitting teams around, but in that area, you just kind of are what you are. The defense is the area where Chicago could perhaps make its biggest leap, and it will be interesting to see if new/old manager Tony La Russa makes that a central focus in his 2021 lineup choices.
Power rating: 87.2
Sim results: 89.7 wins | 65% made playoffs | 9% won pennant | 4% won title
Offseason grade: C (-0.3 wins over 2020 roster)
For all of the caterwauling (including plenty by yours truly) about the Cubs’ offseason, they end up with a roster that looks poised to tread water over what they finished last season with. That’s good enough to mark the Cubs as the favorite to repeat in the NL Central. The late-winter blitz that saw the previously complacent Chicago shift its approach with the additions of Joc Pederson, Jake Arrieta, Trevor Williams and Brandon Workman boosted the short-term outlook for the Cubs.
Run prevention is the strength of this club. Beyond Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs’ staff has less name recognition than last year’s, but the overall picture is one of average or slightly better than average performers and few gaping holes. The team defense looks strong, which is crucial for a staff led by Hendricks, Arrieta and Zach Davies. However, whether the Cubs simply emerge as the best team in a bad division or rise to challenge the beasts of the NL will depend on a thin offense that looks heavy on strikeouts but lacks the collective power to justify all the swing and miss.
Power rating: 87.1
Sim results: 86.5 wins | 44% made playoffs | 6% won pennant | 2% won title
Offseason grade: D+ (-5.0 wins over 2020 roster)
Let’s see: team speed, excellent defense, plus power, too many strikeouts, a piecemeal rotation but a plus bullpen. Yep, this has all the makings of a typical Rays team, one that figures to once again win a lot of games while casual fans scratch their heads trying to figure out just who they are watching.
The offseason was not a great one as, once again, the Rays left the dial on efficiency instead of twisting it toward stability, which yields a higher energy bill, but is oh-so-comfy. Well, in one sense, the Rays do the Rays. But in another sense, wasn’t this team awfully close to winning the World Series just a few months ago? Anyway, the talent distribution on a still-solid roster reflects Tampa Bay’s winter pivot. The number of highly-rated, bedrock veterans (Blake Snell, Morton) has dropped. The quantity of faceless, coach-them-up players has increased. No one said it was easy being a Rays fan.
Power rating: 86.3
Sim results: 85.0 wins | 36% made playoffs | 5% won pennant | 2% won title
Offseason grade: B- (2.7 wins over 2020 roster)
The Angels didn’t make the splashy addition to their rotation that we seem to long for every winter, but their outlook in that area did improve. Part of it is the hopeful return to regular (for him) duty by Shohei Ohtani. But don’t sleep on the stability that the addition of Alex Cobb and Jose Quintana bring to a group that needs it. It’s not sexy, but Oakland has won with a similar formula in recent seasons, albeit with a more dynamic bullpen than the Angels appear to have this season. (Even with the addition of Raisel Iglesias.) The Angels have star power — Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Ohtani — but it’s the bottom half of the roster that has failed them in recent seasons. New GM Perry Minasian seems to have improved the outlook in that area, which might be enough to get the Angels back into wild-card contention.
Power rating: 85.4
Sim results: 83.9 wins | 30% made playoffs | 4% won pennant | 1% won title
Offseason grade: A- (10.0 wins over 2020 roster)
By the narrow definition here of how the hot stove season is evaluated, here are your champs. The Blue Jays were the only team to dip into the Grade-A pool, with a simulated win total a full 10 games better than it would have been had Toronto brought back the same players from 2020. And yet … I’m skeptical. There are two glaring weaknesses on the Toronto dossier, and even though in the aggregate, the Jays figure to score a good amount of runs and limit the opposition to an acceptable level of runs, those holes loom as red flags.
First, the rotation after Hyun-Jin Ryu looks like a patchwork group. Nate Pearson is a fearsome individual, but he couldn’t stay healthy last season as a rookie. Robbie Ray‘s ERA could fall anywhere between 2.50 and 8.50. And the group after that looks like innings filler. The other weakness is what to me shapes up as perhaps baseball’s worst defense. The good news is that defense is hard to project and my forecast of Toronto’s plight in that area is not consensus. Still, as excited as I am about the Blue Jays, you have to worry about any major category with one hole that can be described as “glaring,” much less two of them.
Power rating: 83.7
Sim results: 83.9 wins | 29% made playoffs | 2% won pennant | 1% won title
Offseason grade: B (6.2 wins over 2020 roster)
If a team’s outlook was determined by a median casual fan going through a team’s roster and checking off recognizable names, the Nats would be in good shape. For instance, over the winter, Washington added Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester and Josh Bell. Wow! This team is loaded! Well, last season, Schwarber hit .188, Bell hit .226 and Lester posted a 5.16 ERA.
Thus is the key to the Nationals’ 2021 season. Can the veterans on hand regress to something close to their career norms? If so, then this really could be a loaded roster. At the very least, GM Mike Rizzo has raised the floor for this particular club by adding so many name veterans. Nevertheless, the upside for the group will be determined by young players. Carter Kieboom. Victor Robles. Luis Garcia. Rizzo has won at the highest level with this formula before.
Power rating: 82.4
Sim results: 82.2 wins | 24% made playoffs | 2% won pennant | 1% won title
Offseason grade: F (-11.8 wins over 2020 roster)
The only F grade the system assigned a team’s offseason was right here, as the Indians’ end-of-2020 roster projected as nearly 12 wins better than the one with which they will begin the 2021 season. The rotation should be good, but not as good as it would have been with Carrasco. The offense figures to be average, but with Lindor, it would have been more than that. The team defense is below average. With Lindor, it would have projected as above average. The end result is what you see: a middling team that has enough league-average talent to make a run at a wild card. But with last year’s team intact, Cleveland won titles in 6% of my simulations. This team won titles less than 1% of the time. And so it goes.
Power rating: 82.4
Sim results: 84.8 wins | 37% made playoffs | 3% won pennant | 1% won title
Offseason grade: C (-0.8 wins over 2020 roster)
After the Cardinals acquired Nolan Arenado in an offseason-salvaging move, there were some terms such as “great” tossed around, and that might describe Arenado, but it doesn’t describe the Cardinals. More apt is something like “reliably solid,” which is a reality that I can tell you often infuriates Redbirds fans who consider the eliteness of their baseball team as something like a birthright.
The bellwether group for the 2021 Cardinals is the outfield. When St. Louis sent Dexter Fowler to the Angels, my internal response was a reflexive, “Sure. Not essential and that clears money for a dependable rotation piece.” Yet, right now, it does not appear that the rotation piece is in the offing. Fowler’s departure leaves the Cardinals with a very young and very athletic outfield group of Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, Austin Dean and Justin Williams. I’ve got the Cardinals as the clear-cut, No. 1 defensive team in baseball, and this athletic outfield mix is a part of that. But St. Louis needs offense, and if Carlson, O’Neill and one of the others can break out, the outlook for this year’s Redbirds becomes that much brighter. Perhaps even better than “reliably solid.”
Power rating: 80.6
Sim results: 78.8 wins | 12% made playoffs | 1% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: B (5.7 wins over 2020 roster)
Whether you loved the Red Sox’s offseason or hated it, you’re probably surprised to see a system that thinks they’ve had a decent winter. With the addition of Hunter Renfroe, Enrique Hernandez and Franchy Cordero, this version of Boston’s offense figures to favor more power than the past couple of years and a collectively heightened degree of aggression in the lineup.
On the flip side, the rotation grades as the worst in the non-Baltimore class of the AL East, and the sooner Chris Sale gets back, the better. Also, Boston grades as a full standard deviation below average in terms of team defense, which is actually an improvement on what they would have had returning the same roster. Still, a reunion with Jackie Bradley Jr. — the top player still dangling on the free-agent market — would bolster that deficiency, help a pitching staff that needs help and push Boston back toward a break-even forecast.
Power rating: 79.8
Sim results: 81.7 wins | 23% made playoffs | 2% won pennant | 1% won title
Offseason grade: B- (2.7 wins over 2020 roster)
The Brewers tend to outperform my projections, so an average simulated win total of 81.7 is a nice starting point. Milwaukee’s roster tilts heavily toward run prevention this season, with an above average rotation and perhaps the best bullpen in the game. What would really put the Brewers in a Rays-level class of run stinginess would be elite team defense. Even with the addition of Kolten Wong and the return of Lorenzo Cain, my system isn’t forecasting that to happen, though it’s worth noting that for the time being, I’m not using any kind of organization-based component for defensive alignment as a factor. Suffice to say, manager Craig Counsell and his support staff are better than most at getting defenders in the right spot.
As for the Milwaukee offense, a return to prominence by Christian Yelich is pretty much a must-have. Collectively, though, the Brewers project to be well below average in the power category. For Milwaukee to rise above its middle-of-the-pack forecast, that’s the area in which it needs a collective breakout.
Power rating: 77.7
Sim results: 77.0 wins | 9% made playoffs | 1% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: C+ (1.7 wins over 2020 roster)
The Royals are one of baseball’s sleeper teams this season, and this projection underscores that. Over the winter, move by move, the Kansas City baseline crawled toward .500. While it never quite got there, even after the late-winter splash acquisition of Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City is winning an average of 77 games during the simulations and advancing to the postseason about one in 10 times. But that’s not what marks the Royals as prime sleepers.
The rotation, as constituted, rates as slightly below average in terms of its 2021 forecast. However, given the arrival or pending arrival of recent high draft picks Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar, with 2020 top pick Asa Lacy coming up behind that group, it is not hard to envision a scenario in which the Royals get out to a fast start, perhaps with Adalberto Mondesi continuing his blistering finish to last season, the rotation starting to take off with waves of talent flowing in and … that’s how sleeper seasons happen.
Power rating: 76.9
Sim results: 76.5 wins | 7% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: C+ (0.7 wins over 2020 roster)
After Dave Dombrowski went to work in shoring up a Phillies roster that was in flux for much of the offseason, people seem fairly happy about the end product. My system doesn’t quite see how the bottom line has changed appreciably from what was on hand at the close of the 2020 campaign. There is a clear dividing line between the Phillies’ level and the one on which the Braves and Mets reside, and the Nationals seem to be at least a half-tier up from Philly as well.
The pitching outlook for the Phillies is brightened considerably by the presence of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, but the overall picture is middle of the pack. The team defense could possibly push the Phils’ staff to a higher level, but this group of position players collectively projects to be the worst defensive group in the division. The re-signing of shortstop Didi Gregorius was probably necessary but did not help the defensive outlook. The offense has plenty of patience and decent power, but there are too many strikeouts.
Power rating: 75.8
Sim results: 76.7 wins | 7% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: C (-1.7 wins over 2020 roster)
The Diamondbacks had a quiet winter and seem to be banking on positive regression from 2020 strugglers such as Madison Bumgarner and Luke Weaver, while hoping their younger players show progress. In a division with the Padres and Dodgers, it’s not the most scintillating approach, but under GM Mike Hazen, Arizona has tended to play the long game.
Since so many of the names are the same in Phoenix, we can focus on the regression aspect of the Diamondbacks’ approach, and while the rotation should be greatly improved in that regard from last season, there doesn’t appear to be enough bounce-back on Arizona’s overall roster to make a dent in the gap between the Snakes and the teams above them. Still, skipper Torey Lovullo tends to get the most from what he has to work with, and because Arizona’s baseline is within spitting distance of .500, an upstart bid at a wild card is not out of the question.
Power rating: 75.1
Sim results: 76.7 wins | 9% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: C- (-2.2 wins over 2020 roster)
The disappointing part of the Reds’ offseason isn’t so much that they will drop off the face of the earth, because nothing that severe figures to happen. It’s more that they really didn’t have to do much to remain a key part of the NL Central chase. But they didn’t do much of anything, with the signing of Sean Doolittle as closer ending up as the marquee move. And that signing was necessary but also kind of a lateral move, given that Cincinnati traded Raisel Iglesias to the Angels earlier in the winter.
Even without Bauer, the Reds appear to have an average rotation or better but, beyond that, there really isn’t anything Cincinnati figures to be really good at. Walks, maybe? Any hopes for the Reds to again challenge for a playoff slot probably start with Doolittle enjoying a bounce-back season, because the overall picture in the Reds’ bullpen is not pretty.
Power rating: 72.8
Sim results: 71.4 wins | 2% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: C- (-4.8 wins over 2020 roster)
So, the Rangers. I never know what to say about this team. I have a stat window open as I write up these analyses, and there are some things there to say. The Rangers don’t project as well as they would have had they kept the same roster. Lance Lynn and Kluber were on their end-of-2020 roster, so that’s hardly a revelation. Part of the problem is that it’s always hard to see where this club is going. They always have middling, toolsy players who are kind of hard to watch, but for a good half decade now, the minor league system hasn’t really given us a way to envision a roster built from what’s coming through it. It all feels kind of willy-nilly, even though I know it’s not willy-nilly.
Still, who are the young players on this year’s Rangers I’m excited to follow? I don’t know. Maybe Nate Lowe? What about arrivals from the system. Josh Jung? Sam Huff? Anderson Tejeda? Maybe. What about Isiah Kiner-Falefa being installed as the everyday shortstop? It’s interesting, for sure. It wasn’t that long ago that backup catcher was part of his resume. But, from a projection standpoint, it doesn’t look like a plus move in the short term, not when Elvis Andrus is the player being replaced. Anyway, maybe this is the season the Rangers offer up some clarity in regards to what they’re all about.
Power rating: 72.8
Sim results: 71.0 wins | 2% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: B (8.2 wins over 2020 roster)
Not to go too far into the weeds, but one of the things the system does is generate ratings for each player that are expressed like a scouting rating on the 20-80 scale. It doesn’t work quite like that, but the expression is similar. This allows me to analyze a roster for, say, “good” players (scout score of 60 or above), “average” players and so on. The Mariners’ end-of-season 2020 roster featured a group of which 35% landed in the “bad” column. After a fairly quiet winter, especially for a Jerry Dipoto team, that number is now 18%. The Mariners are not suddenly star laden, and their 2021 projection is not going to make anyone in the Northwest swoon, but the foundation is being solidified as a wave of really impressive young talent begins to come ashore. The rate of “good” players is only 3% — up from zero. But that column should be filled by Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Emerson Hancock, Logan Gilbert and others.
Yes, right now, there is a concerning amount of dysfunction in the Seattle organization, and that is always a worry. If an organization is rotten at the top, there isn’t much hope for what’s happening below. Ask any New York Knicks fan. Still, Dipoto has put his club in position to make a quick rise in a competitive landscape. This is a team I’m excited to see develop.
Power rating: 69.6
Sim results: 69.9 wins | 1% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: C+ (1.6 wins over 2020 roster)
There really aren’t any team-level metrics that my system generates that tell me the Giants are going to be a surprise wild-card contender this season. Indeed, I think it’s fair to say that if it happened, that’s the way to describe it — as a surprise. Yet, there are some intangible reasons why I think it would be less than shocking if that playoff push happened. For one thing, under Farhan Zaidi, I just feel like the Giants do things the right way, which is a terrible sports trope I nevertheless can’t figure out how to articulate in a more telling manner.
And because of that general belief in the Giants’ processes, I don’t think it’s impossible that the Giants end up making a run for a second wild card — assuming someone falters in a strong NL — because they haven’t behaved like a team that has thrown in the towel before the season has even begun. Clearly the Giants’ focus is on the long term. Yet this winter, San Francisco has added veterans, including Tommy La Stella, Kevin Gausman (a re-signing after being tendered a qualifying offer), Alex Wood and Jake McGee. Then there is the latest signing, which fascinates me: one-time Cy Young hopeful Aaron Sanchez. The Giants’ once-onerous payroll obligations are on the verge of clearing up. This is a franchise everyone else in baseball should be very afraid of.
Power rating: 68.5
Sim results: 67.0 wins | 1% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: C- (-4.9 wins over 2020 roster)
Like Kansas City, there is some hidden upside in the Marlins’ 2021 outlook because of a plethora of young rotation pieces, some of whom got their feet wet in last season’s expanded playoff field. Yet the Marlins finished last in 76% of the simulations. This is nothing like the one of the worst teams in baseball, but the NL East is a beast. The Marlins will hopefully not be overburdened with expectations after their context-dependent postseason appearance, because this is not a team that has arrived. New GM Kim Ng kept her offseason work in the low-key category, and that was the way to go, because this roster just doesn’t merit any kind of rash maneuvers. Better days are coming in Miami, but it might be hard to remember that at times in the short term.
Power rating: 66.9
Sim results: 65.3 wins | 0% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: B (7.9 wins over 2020 roster)
Let’s return for a moment to the “good,” “bad” and “average” classifications this system issues. The Tigers are the only team without a single player who landed in the “good” category. For comparison’s sake, consider that the Twins have a “good” player rate of 28%.
That said, Detroit did not have a bad offseason, as the foundation of the next good Tigers team continues to be consolidated. The hope is that the “good” column will be soon populated by Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Spencer Torkelson, among others. Meanwhile, the Tigers added more average-ish players this winter to lift the floor of the roster. Most important, Detroit landed its long-term manager in AJ Hinch, who brought in a star pitching coach in Chris Fetter. So while my system doesn’t see 2021 as the year the Tigers begin their rise, things still figure to get exciting in Detroit sooner than later.
Power rating: 65.3
Sim results: 62.4 wins | 0% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: C- (-4.4 wins over 2020 roster)
This approach to measuring offseason prowess serves to validate the Orioles’ approach to the big picture. On one hand, they would have been better situated for the coming season if they had brought back Alex Cobb, Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez and the gang. On the other hand: That would have gotten them from only about 62 to 67 wins, by these forecasts. You hate to be redundant, but the fact remains: Forget the wins for the 2021 Orioles. This season is all about the ascension of Adley Rutschman and the process of finding players to put next to him in Baltimore’s future core.
Power rating: 62.2
Sim results: 62.5 wins | 0% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: C (-1.2 wins over 2020 roster)
Ke’Bryan Hayes projects to be the Pirates’ best player this season, even though he has all of 85 big-league at-bats under his belt. This is going to be a long season for the Pirates, who figure to be below average to bad at pretty much everything. The Pirates last lost 100 games in 2010. That string could be snapped this season. The Bucs finished last in my simulations 85% of the time, even though they play in baseball’s worst division.
Power rating: 57.2
Sim results: 56.1 wins | 0% made playoffs | 0% won pennant | 0% won title
Offseason grade: D+ (-8.6 wins over 2020 roster)
No one’s projection system is being kind to the Rockies these days, though it should be noted that my system is considerably harsher than any other I’ve seen. That makes my forecast of Colorado’s 2021 chances an outlier. Still, I see no path to contention for this roster, and the offense looks stunningly bad. Ironically, the Rockies project to hit for a better-than-the-norm batting average, even after adjusting out the effects of Coors Field. They also figure to have an above-average level of baserunning acuity. And still, this statement holds true: The Rockies’ offense looks stunningly bad. If a 2021, big league offense can be referred to as a group of banjo hitters, this one is it. In the simulations, the Rockies finished last in the NL West 87% of the time.