FLORHAM PARK, N.J. — A look at what’s happening around the New York Jets:
1. Tanny 2.0: Barring any strange doings, meaning a victory by the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Jets will wind up with the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. If the Jets eschew a quarterback and decide to stick with Sam Darnold — a giant “if” — it will be done with the belief he can become the second quarterback in three years to pull a post-Adam Gase turnaround.
Hello, Ryan Tannehill.
Tannehill’s stock was so low after seven seasons with the Miami Dolphins — the last three under the head coach — that he was traded to the Tennessee Titans in 2019 for what amounted to a fourth-round draft pick. You know the rest of the story.
Can Darnold be that guy, flourishing under a new coaching staff in 2021? Talent evaluators like his upside, but there’s an air of mystery around him because they haven’t seen him do it yet on a consistent basis.
“I’ve watched Darnold a lot,” a former NFC general manager said. “I saw him in college. I don’t know how good or whatever he is. The Jets have just been a mess. The head coach is a mess, so I don’t know.”
Jets general manager Joe Douglas is getting paid a lot of money to know; it’s his decision. History tells us the Tannehill situations are rare. If a quarterback doesn’t succeed in his first three seasons, he usually doesn’t after that. Super Bowl-winning coach Brian Billick, now an NFL Network analyst, said his mentor, the legendary Bill Walsh, always used to say, “If it’s not there by the 25th or 26th start, it doesn’t exist.”
Darnold has started 36 games and his career passer rating is 78.4, which ranks 39th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks since 2018.
Let’s try this: If you take Darnold’s best 16 starts (based on rating), his “mega” season would be 31 touchdowns, nine interceptions, a 65% completion rate and a 103.8 rating. There are seven quarterbacks with a better rating this season alone, illustrating that Darnold’s best still isn’t good enough to be considered elite.
The numbers are damning, but we know Douglas graded Darnold as the top quarterback in the 2018 draft class. We also know Douglas didn’t draft him, so there’s no allegiance. The physical talent is there, and Darnold is only 23, but it will take patience and conviction to stick with him. There just aren’t a lot of dramatic turnarounds at the quarterback position. Even Tannehill enjoyed a couple of moderately successful seasons in Miami before getting shipped out.
New England quarterback Cam Newton was average in his first four seasons with the Carolina Panthers before hitting it big with them. Drew Brees (New Orleans) struggled in his first three years with the San Diego Chargers, and now he’s on his way to Canton, Ohio. The best example of a late bloomer is Alex Smith (Washington), who hovered near bust status for six seasons with the San Francisco 49ers before emerging as a solid starter in the league.
In the end, Douglas must determine if Darnold can be fixed and whether that version is better than the best quarterback in the draft not named Trevor Lawrence.
2. Jets will stand alone: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers clinched a playoff spot Saturday and the Cleveland Browns are on the verge of clinching. You’re probably wondering how this is relevant to the Jets other than the fact they play the Browns on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET (CBS).
Well, it’s because the Browns (2002) and Bucs (2007) began Week 16 with the longest active playoff droughts. Assuming the Browns join the Bucs in the tournament, the longest dry spell will belong to …
Yep, the Jets, who most recently qualified in 2010.
“Ten years, that’s unbelievable,” former Jets defensive lineman Mike DeVito said on ESPN’s Flight Deck podcast. “We have to get back to the playoffs.”
DeVito was a starter on the Jets’ most recent playoff team, which had a clearly defined identity under coach Rex Ryan. Future Jets teams need to develop an identity. No one knows who they are and what they stand for.
“We were going to be nasty,” said DeVito, reflecting on the teams that reached the AFC Championship Game in back-to-back seasons. “We were going to run the football. We were going to be the bully on defense you didn’t want to play — and that’s New York. That’s what it means to be in New York. You have to be a special type of player to play in New York. It’s not just about your talent on the field. You have to have that swagger. You have to have that nasty. … That’s the type of atmosphere you’re in.”
Easy to say, hard to create.
3. Brownie points: The Browns were 0-16 in 2017, and now they’re battling for a division title. If the Browns can do it … hey, there’s hope for the Jets.
4. Did you know? The Jets are 0-7 at home. The only time they went winless there was in 1996, the season they finished 1-15. In a strange way, they’re lucky fans haven’t been allowed to attend home games. MetLife Stadium would be a cauldron of venom.
5. Oh, Henry: Defensive lineman Henry Anderson admitted his lack of playing time has been a source of frustration, along with the losing. He has played in 46% of the defensive snaps, although that’s a slight uptick from last season (41%). It’s not hard to see where this is going.
Anderson is due to make a non-guaranteed $8.2 million in 2021, the final year of a three-year, $25.2 million contract. His cap number will be $9.5 million, which means there’s little chance of him returning. The Jets can save the full $8.2 million in salary by releasing him.
6. Gang Greene: The late Kevin Greene spent two seasons as the Jets’ outside linebackers coach (2017-18), but it’s clear he made an impact on those he coached, based on the social media response to his death at 58. He referred to his players as “my kids,” and he coached them the same way he played during his Hall of Fame career — with relentless passion. Rest in peace to a legend.
2018 OC Jeremy Bates had our OLB coach Kevin Greene speak to the Q’s one Saturday. Every word delivered with the same passion & fire as if he was coming off the edge after a QB! Thankful for the time he spent with us. Heartbroken for his family and their loss.
Forever “ATFI” pic.twitter.com/ITUj9JYIFD— Josh McCown (@JoshMcCown12) December 23, 2020
7. Potential cap cuts: Because the roster already is stripped down, the Jets don’t have many players in Anderson’s category. One player who could be on the bubble is right tackle George Fant, who has a $9.4 million cap charge in 2021 — a hefty amount for a replacement-level player. There’s a deadline for the decision because $4.45 million of his $8 million base salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 22.
Center Connor McGovern isn’t going anywhere because he already has an $8 million guarantee locked in, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s moved to guard.
8. No quit: With Darnold and the wide receivers finally healthy, the Jets’ offense has made only slight improvement over the past four games, but I will say this about Gase: The team still is playing hard for him. That and $3 won’t get him a cup of coffee at Starbucks, but it’s something.
9. Q was robbed: It’s hard for a player on a 1-13 team to make a stink about not making the Pro Bowl, but Quinnen Williams has a legitimate beef. Statistically, he was having a better season than any of the three defensive tackles named to the AFC squad — Chris Jones (Kansas City Chiefs), Cam Heyward (Pittsburgh Steelers) and Calais Campbell (Baltimore Ravens).
Clearly, Campbell made it on reputation; he has played 10 games (only 297 snaps as an interior lineman). Williams, now on injured reserve, played almost twice as many interior snaps over 13 games, and his numbers are far superior to those of Campbell. Truth be told, his stats are better than anyone in the group.
“He has improved big time and he’s going to continue to get better and better,” Jets linebacker Neville Hewitt said of Williams. “He’s only 23 years old, so he’s going to be elite.”
10. The last word: “Nothing I’m really worried about.” — Gase on whether he has a gut feeling on his fate.