The Miami Dolphins, armed with a league-high three first-round picks and 14 total selections, can practically own the 2020 NFL draft, which begins at 8 p.m. ET Thursday, on ESPN/ABC/ESPN App. The Dolphins are also at the center of the conversation about where quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, one of the draft’s most interesting prospects, will land.
Given the draft capital and speculation about finding a franchise quarterback, the Dolphins are perhaps the draft’s most intriguing team. The pressure is on Dolphins general manager Chris Grier to hit a home run in this draft, something he acknowledged during his pre-draft teleconference last week.
“It’s very important,” Grier said. “We’ve always talked about competing for a long time. Not just one year, build it and fall back. If we build it right, with the right picks and smart picks and do it the right way, we have a chance to have a good team here for a long time.”
Just how important is that draft capital? The Dolphins have five of the first 56 selections (Nos. 5, 18, 26, 39, 56). Only six teams in the common draft era have had that many picks within the first 56 picks. Those teams combined for a 62-22-1 (.729) record the following season, per ESPN Stats & Information.
With that, let’s focus on the questions that will shape the Dolphins’ draft weekend.
Who will be the Dolphins’ next franchise quarterback?
At this point, it’s quarterback or bust for Miami in Thursday’s first round. The Dolphins’ first pick at No. 5 will likely come down to Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert, with a far less likely wild card of Jordan Love at No. 18.
Tagovailoa is the more talented QB over Herbert and Love because he has the “it factor,” accuracy and a pro-ready game, but his substantial injury history and questions about his long-term durability have some critics wondering whether he’s a top-five pick. With Tagovailoa, the decision for Miami will come down to whether it’s a bigger risk to bet on him or pass on him.
Herbert is considered by some draft evaluators to be the “safer” option because of his 6-foot-6, 236-pound size, arm strength and upside. But he has substantial flaws, including weaknesses in anticipation, accuracy and lingering questions about whether he has the leadership qualities to be a franchise QB. With Herbert, it comes down to whether the Dolphins’ comfort with his prototypical skill set makes him the right choice.
Grier said he has gotten to know both Tagovailoa and Herbert well through the pre-draft process, describing each as talented, intelligent and a winner. In ESPN’s NFL Nation mock draft, Tagovailoa was the No. 5 pick for Miami over Herbert.
1:31
Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal describes Justin Herbert’s personality and what NFL teams will miss out on if they don’t draft him.
Is it more likely for the Dolphins to trade up or down with each of their first-round picks?
When asked about his big board for the No. 5 pick, Grier said there are “eight or nine players we feel really good about. We’ll get a good player and we’ll be very happy to have him, and I think the fans will be happy as well.”
The most likely scenario for the Dolphins’ first pick is that selection becomes Herbert or Tagovailoa. The Detroit Lions (No. 3) and New York Giants (No. 4) have both made it clear that their picks are available for teams that want to trade up for a quarterback. Miami could still move up to secure its QB, but its preference is to maintain its draft capital and stay put at No. 5.
The Dolphins’ No. 18 pick is the one that might be most likely to be used in a trade-up scenario. If Miami takes a QB at No. 5, it might seek to trade up using its No. 18 pick to land one of the top-four offensive tackles (Jedrick Wills Jr., Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs or Mekhi Becton). All four could be selected by No. 15. One scenario could have Miami trade with San Francisco, which holds the No. 13 pick and has actively been trying to trade back, to land one of the tackles. The NFL trade value chart indicates that swap from No. 18 to No. 13 is worth 250 points, which is worth roughly the Dolphins’ No. 70 pick (240 points). If the Dolphins toss in the No. 70 and a sixth- or seventh-rounder, a deal could be struck.
Typically by the end of Round 1, teams might run out of prospects who have first-round grades, making the Dolphins’ No. 26 pick the most likely to be used in a trade back. If the Dolphins want to recoup picks from an earlier trade up, a trade back into the early second round could gain them another midround pick.
How will Miami use its other first-round picks?
Since the trade options are outlined above, let’s assume the Dolphins stay put at Nos. 5, 18 and 26. It would be a surprise if at least one of Miami’s first-round picks isn’t an offensive lineman. Offensive tackle is a strength of this draft, and the Dolphins arguably had the worst offensive line in 2019, allowing the most sacks (58) and creating the fewest rushing yards (72.3).
Houston’s Josh Jones, USC’s Austin Jackson, Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson and Boise State’s Ezra Cleveland could be options for Miami in Round 1. The Dolphins also like Michigan center Cesar Ruiz, sources said. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Miami draft more than one player early on at this position.
Beyond OT, the front seven, running back and safety positions are in Miami’s crosshairs: LSU’s K’Lavon Chaisson, Penn State’s Yetur Gross-Matos, Iowa’s A.J. Epenesa, Wisconsin’s Zack Baun, Georgia’s D’Andre Swift, Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins, Alabama’s Xavier McKinney and Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield Jr. are all possibilities.
In ESPN’s NFL Nation mock draft, Miami selected Jackson at No. 18 and Epenesa at No. 26.
What is the most underrated draft need for Miami?
Safety. The Dolphins’ top needs have been addressed with quarterback and offensive line, so running back and front-seven players are next up, but safety is a position Miami might target too.
Bobby McCain, a career nickel corner, filled the Dolphins’ free safety role admirably in 2019, but he is best in the slot. If Miami can add a player such as Winfield, McKinney, LSU’s Grant Delpit or Cal’s Ashtyn Davis in Round 2, plus move McCain back to the slot, it would make the Dolphins’ secondary its strongest position group.
What’s the draft sweet spot to finding the RB of the future?
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick simply cannot be the team’s leading rusher again, like he was in 2019. The good news for Dolphins fans is that the team hopes to select a running back in the first three rounds, a source said, with Swift, Dobbins, LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor, Florida State’s Cam Akers and Utah’s Zack Moss among the options.
Running back is a devalued position in the modern NFL, so it will be tough to get good value with a player in Round 1. But with the No. 39 or No. 56 pick, the Dolphins should be able to draft one of their top three choices. Miami’s positioning there seems to be the sweet spot for the best combination of value and top-end talent.
2:17
Kevin Negandhi deep dives into the careers of the top four defensive prospects of the 2020 draft that notably include Ohio State’s Chase Young and Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons.
Who are the best fits to plug the Dolphins’ defensive holes?
Look for versatile players who can play in the Dolphins’ hybrid scheme as well as players who have been team captains. Grier reminded last week on the teleconference with Dolphins media that the game tape will remain Miami’s main evaluation tool for prospects.
Coach Brian Flores seems to love linebackers who can play off-ball and on the edge, such as free-agent signee Kyle Van Noy, and draft prospects such as Chaisson, Baun and Michigan’s Josh Uche fit that description. The Dolphins also have a need for defensive ends who can also play inside in sub packages, and options include Epenesa, Auburn’s Marlon Davidson, Alabama’s Raekwon Davis and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence. Miami also could use a 1-technique or a nose tackle to play a situational role, such as Utah’s Leki Fotu, Ohio State’s Davon Hamilton and Nebraska’s Darrion Daniels.
Who are the prospects who have connections to the Dolphins’ staff?
A few notables include Cal’s Davis, who played for new Dolphins defensive backs coach Gerald Alexander at Cal over the past three seasons. Davis could be drafted in the second round or early in the third. Uche played for new Dolphins linebackers coach Anthony Campanile at Michigan last season. Uche also could go in Rounds 2 or 3. Edge rusher Oluwole Betiku Jr. played for new Dolphins outside linebackers coach Austin Clark at Illinois last season. Betiku is likely a Day 3 pick or a priority free agent.
A couple of other Miami connections include Minnesota safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who is the son of Flores’ favorite NFL player — Antoine Winfield Sr.
And, Georgia’s Wilson is a Brooklyn native who attended Poly Prep Country Day School — Flores’ former high school. Both Winfield and Wilson are players who could be drafted late on Day 1 or Day 2.