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Doug KezirianESPN
The Houston Astros received unprecedented punishment from MLB and subsequently fired their manager and general manager, in addition to losing ace Gerrit Cole in free agency, yet oddsmakers still expect the team to flirt with 100 wins and contend for a World Series title.
Caesars Sportsbook has posted Houston with a win total of 97, behind only the New York Yankees (101) and Los Angeles Dodgers (99). The Astros also have the second-lowest championship odds at 6-1.
On Monday, the Astros dismissed manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow, following a suspension by MLB after it found evidence the team used technology to cheat during its 2017 World Series season. Yet, Caesars director of trading Jeff Davis only accounted this unusual winter as a “half-win” subtraction.
“I just don’t want to read too much into (perceived advantages of sign-stealing). I would rather take under bets against a really good roster than overreact to something that might be nothing,” Davis told ESPN. “Hinch is very well-regarded as one of the best managers in baseball so he’s got to be worth something. However, the players still have to play and it’s a pretty damn good roster.”
Despite losing Cole, the defending American League champions return players that swept prestigious awards. Reigning Cy Young Justin Verlander, MVP Alex Bregman and Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez figure to lead a team that’s favored to win the A.L. West for the fourth straight season.
On top of the rare suspensions, a sport synonymous with historical numbers is witnessing oddsmaking history. The New York Yankees have a season win total of 101.5 at FanDuel and William Hill, which is tied for the second-highest number ever offered. SportsOddsHistory.com ranks the 1999 Yankees (104.5) and 2005 Yankees (101.5) atop the list.
The Yankees are World Series favorites (+350) after signing arguably baseball’s best pitcher, Cole, to a record $324 million-dollar deal in December.
“This team could win 100 games even without Cole,” Davis said, after posting the Yanks with 101 wins. “If they stay healthy, I don’t see why they couldn’t reach the all-time mark (116 wins by the 1906 Chicago Cubs and 2001 Seattle Mariners). They just don’t have any holes.”
The Detroit Tigers also made betting history with a total at William Hill of 54.5 wins, which is an all-time record low. They managed just 47 wins last season, which qualifies as the 15th-worst win percentage in the modern era (since 1900). Caesars has posted 55.5 for both the Tigers and Baltimore Orioles, which won 54 games last year.
“How much lower can you really go?” Davis said. “I think the Tigers’ floor is lower than the Orioles’ floor. This team has a couple of guys that can actually be good but the Tigers offense just doesn’t have anyone whose ceiling is high.”
The Dodgers top the National League with 99 wins and are favorites to win the N.L. West for the eighth straight year. However, they did fail to land marquee free agents Cole and Anthony Rendon (Angels), while also losing Cy Young runner-up Hyun-Jin Ryu in free agency to the Toronto Blue Jays.
“They were a very good team last year that won 106 games with largely the same roster. They’re just the class of the National League,” Davis said.
The Nationals upset the Dodgers last year in the Division Series and eventually captured the World Series. Caesars posted their total at 89.5. In addition to losing Rendon, the team also resides in what could be the most competitive division. The Nats, Atlanta Braves (92), New York Mets (86.5) and Philadelphia Phillies (85.5) are separated by just 6.5 wins, while the Miami Marlins are the lone N.L. East outlier (63.5).