Week 12 NFL playoff picture: How the bracket looks headed into Sunday’s games

Welcome to the Week 12 of the NFL season, where the most consequential game on the schedule already has been played.

The Houston Texans‘ 20-17 victory on Thursday night over the Indianapolis Colts allowed them to recapture the lead in the AFC South and gave them a high probability to make the playoffs. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Texans now have a 90.5% chance to make the postseason. The loss was devastating for the Colts, who had a playoff probability swing of 43% entering the game. Although they are only one game out in the AFC playoff picture, their chances of making the postseason sit at 39.6%.

Here’s how the playoff picture looks headed into Sunday’s games, plus how FPI views each team’s chances of making the postseason and Super Bowl. We will continue to update the playoff picture throughout the day and provide further analysis by the end of the night.

AFC

Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 44.6%
Next up: vs. Dallas, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox

Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 31%
Next up: at Los Angeles Rams on Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN App

Chance to make the playoffs: 90.5%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 5.6%
Next up: vs. New England (Week 13)

Chance to make the playoffs: 97.3%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 17.1%
Next up: vs. Oakland (Week 13)

Chance to make the playoffs: 66.9%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 0.3%
Next up: vs. Denver, 1 p.m. ET on CBS

Chance to make the playoffs: 39.9%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 0.3%
Next up: at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET on CBS

Next four

7. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5)
9. Tennessee Titans (5-5)
10. Cleveland Browns (4-6)

NFC

Chance to make the playoffs: 95.8%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 24.4%
Next up: vs. Green Bay, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC

Chance to make the playoffs: 95.4%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 16.6%
Next up: at San Francisco, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC

Chance to make the playoffs: 99.1%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 24.9%
Next up: vs. Carolina, 1 p.m. ET on CBS

Chance to make the playoffs: 69.5%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 7.2%
Next up: at New England, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox

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Victor Cruz and Rob Ninkovich agree the Patriots’ defense will cause too much trouble for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.

Chance to make the playoffs: 83.7%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 7.5%
Next up: at Philadelphia, 1 p.m. ET on Fox

Chance to make the playoffs: 93%
Chance to make Super Bowl LIV: 16.1%
Next up: at Seattle (Week 13)

Next four

7. Los Angeles Rams (6-4)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
9. Carolina Panthers (5-5)
10. Chicago Bears (4-6)