HOCKENHEIM, Germany — If the forecast for the race holds true, Pirelli’s wet tyres will be the rubber of choice on Sunday afternoon.
It’s worth noting that Formula One hasn’t had a wet race yet this season, but if last year’s German Grand Prix is anything to go by a couple of sudden showers will make for great racing. But there is an outside chance the race will remain dry…
If that’s the case, we will likely see a one-stop strategy, with the optimum combination of tyres being mediums for the first 24-29 laps and hards to the chequered flag. That will suit Lewis Hamilton (starting from pole), Valtteri Bottas (starting from third) and Charles Leclerc (starting from tenth), who set their fastest time in Q2 on mediums and will start on that tyre. The rest of the top ten will start on softs.
A one-stop is still possible on the softs, but requires an earlier pit stop around lap 18-22 and a longer, more conservative second stint on the hard tyres. Max Verstappen starts on soft tyres from second on the grid, which may offer a slightly better getaway from his grid position than the mediums, but could see him forced to protect his tyres rather than attack in the opening stint. He revealed after qualifying that Red Bull also planned to start on the mediums, but his Q2 lap on the yellow-striped tyres was ruined by a glitch with his Honda power unit that forced him to come back to the pits.
While there could be an exciting tussle between Mercedes and Red Bull at the front based on the strategy variation, keep an eye on the Ferraris coming through the field. Both suffered reliability issues in qualifying, with Sebastian Vettel failing to set a lap time due to a problem with the airflow to his turbo and Charles Leclerc dropping out after Q2 due to a fuel system issue. As a result, Vettel will start from the back of the grid and Leclerc from tenth, but the Ferrari was the fastest car in Friday practice and should make light work of the midfield cars ahead.
Leclerc is tied to starting the race on the medium compound due to his tyre choice in Q2, but that should be the best choice from that part of the grid with the next six cars ahead of him starting on softs. However, don’t be surprised to see Vettel start on the hards to give himself maximum flexibility with strategy and run long into the race in the hope that a Safety Car or wet weather offers up a free pit stop.