There’s a lot going on this weekend. “Avengers: Endgame” is hitting theaters, the Battle of Winterfell is about to go down on “Game of Thrones,” the NFL draft will reach its conclusion, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is making his big league debut. It’s a bit of a sensory overload, to be sure, but let’s not lose focus here. Sweating Derek Holland’s start against the Yankees might not be as fun as watching Iron Man and Thor battle Thanos, but it is more important, right? Right.
Here’s a look at Saturday’s top streaming options.
Pitching
Derek Holland (L), rostered in 8 percent of ESPN leagues, San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees: Yes, this matchup comes against the Yankees, but have you seen the Yankees’ lineup lately? The Yanks have been so derailed by injuries that it’s really not fair to refer to this version of the lineup as the Bronx Bombers. Plus, they get a massive park downgrade going to Oracle Park and will be without a DH. This creates a nice opportunity for Holland, who boasts an 11.3 K/9 in five starts this season and a career 3.35 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 21 games (16 starts) at Oracle Park.
Brad Peacock (R), 37 percent, Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Indians: After a stint in the bullpen, Peacock rejoined Houston’s rotation on Monday to square off against the Twins. The results were underwhelming (5 IP, 3 ER), but he should be equipped to go deeper into Saturday’s contest against Cleveland. While the Indians have Francisco Lindor back, and Jose Ramirez is starting to show signs of life, this is still a club that ranks last in the AL against righty pitching with a 67 wRC+ and 25 percent whiff rate.
Brett Anderson (L), 21 percent, Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays: Anderson left his last outing with an ankle injury, but he looks ready to go against Toronto on Saturday. That’s a good thing, because the Blue Jays are one of the best matchups in baseball for left-handed pitchers. The Jays sport an AL-worst .270 wOBA against lefty pitching and strike out at a 26.3 percent clip. Anderson, meanwhile, holds a 3.04 ERA across four starts, having allowed three or fewer runs in every outing so far. The strikeout potential is pretty much non-existent here, but he’s getting by with an elite ground ball rate and by limiting hard contact (25.6 percent, seventh best in MLB).
Reynaldo Lopez (R), 11 percent, Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: Lopez’s 7.46 ERA is an eyesore, but he’s delivered back-to-back quality starts (one against these same Tigers) with three earned runs allowed in his past 12 frames (2.25 ERA), suggesting that perhaps he’s ironed some things out. Despite Lopez’s inconsistency, he’s proved that he can provide pockets of value, like when he finished 2018 with a 1.38 ERA and 9.5 K/9 across his final seven starts. Better yet, the Tigers are one of the teams we like to target when streaming starters, as they rank 25th in baseball with a 79 wRC+ and a 25.8 percent strikeout rate.
Bullpen
While the 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP are ugly, A.J. Minter has delivered three straight scoreless appearances and has notched saves in each of his past two games. Even if he encounters some struggles down the road, the Braves’ bullpen isn’t exactly stocked with great backup options, so Minter figures to have a decent-sized leash in the closer role. He’s available in 70 percent of ESPN leagues.
Projected game scores
Hitting
Catcher
Mitch Garver (R), 15 percent, Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles (RHP Dan Straily): You wouldn’t know it from his low rostered percentage, but Garver is batting .405/.436/.919 across 11 games this season with five homers, all against right-handed pitching. Straily has allowed a whopping seven homers in just 14⅔ innings this season, so expect some more fireworks come Saturday.
First Base
Ryan O’Hearn (L), 3 percent, Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels (RHP Jaime Barria): O’Hearn has yet to get going this season, but he still owns a .313/.403/.705 line against righty pitching in his brief big league career. On Saturday he draws the platoon advantage against Barria, who doesn’t miss bats and allows lots of fly balls.
Second Base
Derek Dietrich (L), 3 percent, Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (RHP Dakota Hudson): Sometimes there’s no need to overthink it. Dietrich owns a 1.037 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, while Hudson has been clobbered by lefty batters, surrendering a .422/.519/.933 line.
Third Base
Yandy Diaz (R), 37 percent, Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (LHP David Price): Diaz has been one of this season’s pleasant surprises, batting .277/.376/.524 with six dingers in 83 at-bats. He’s been particularly effective against southpaws (.300/.462/.450), which matches him up well with Price, who is allowing hard contact at a career-worst 40.7 percent clip this season.
Shortstop
Carter Kieboom (R), 1 percent, Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres (LHP Eric Lauer): Kieboom is expected to get called up from Triple-A on Friday, and the promotion is no surprise considering he batted .379/.506/.636 with three homers, six doubles and 18 RBIs in 18 games. He immediately becomes a worthwhile add in fantasy leagues, and he gets the platoon advantage against a very hittable Eric Lauer on Saturday.
Corner Infield
Christian Walker (R), 45 percent, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Yu Darvish): Walker has been a popular name in this space this season, but as long as he’s rostered in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues, we’re going to keep on featuring him. All Walker has done this season is bat .341/.398/.694 with seven homers, three steals and an absurd 69.1 percent hard-hit rate. He doesn’t figure to slow down against Darvish and his 5.96 ERA.
Middle Infield
Niko Goodrum (S), 16 percent, Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (RHP Reynaldo Lopez): The switch-hitting Goodrum has fared better against righty pitching this season (.882 OPS) and gets a nice park bump by trading in Comerica Park for Guaranteed Rate Field. Meanwhile, Lopez has had big-time issues with lefty batters so far this season (.405/.510/.762).
Outfield
Dexter Fowler (S), 2 percent, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds (RHP Tyler Mahle): Are we witnessing a Dexter Fowler comeback? It’s hard to say for sure, but he’s batting .310/.395/.423 in 22 games and is really hammering righty pitching (.333/.415/.474). As luck would have it, Mahle has been very generous to lefty swingers, surrendering a .419/.438/.677 triple slash against them in 2019.
Brian Goodwin (L), 6 percent, Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals (RHP Jorge Lopez): Lopez is one of Saturday’s lowest-ranked starters, and he’s been a big liability against left-handed batters, with a .321/.368/.717 slash line allowed. This presents us with a fine opportunity to fire up Goodwin, who is quietly doing damage this season with a .344/.419/.594 line in 64 at-bats.
Leonys Martin (L), 7 percent, Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros (RHP Brad Peacock): The last two weeks have seen Martin bat .308/.400/.462 with a pair of homers, a stolen base and 11 runs scored. While the Indians’ lineup has disappointed so far this season, batting between Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez is a good place to be. Peacock has dominated righties in 2019 (.390 OPS), but lefties (.917) have consistently gotten the better of him.
Hitter matchup ratings
Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher’s history (three years’ worth) as well as ballpark factors. “LH” and “RH” ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively.
Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. For example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible).