Last year, MLB handicapper Joe Peta put away the baseball spreadsheets and began immersing himself in the world of golf betting. His latest book, “A 2019 Masters Preview,” was published last month and contains never-before-revealed analytics and insights on the Masters. As part of his look at the most popular betting event on the PGA Tour, Joe is previewing the 2019 Masters Tournament for ESPN.
There aren’t many things that would take me away from baseball betting, but handicapping the Masters was one of them. Unlike the other majors, which rotate, the Masters is played at Augusta National every year, making the sample sizes so much more significant.
In this betting guide, we’ll take a look at everything you need to know to bet the Masters. We’ll cover important handicapping metrics (including highest career strokes gained in excess of expectations), futures bets, DFS value plays and ways to win your Masters pool.
Betting odds courtesy of SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas and DFS salaries from DraftKings.
Best value bets
Jon Rahm (16-1): Rahm could have won two majors last year, as he contended in both the Masters and the PGA Championship. How I feel about Rahm mimics how I felt about Brooks Koepka entering 2017: He’d been contending, and everyone knew it was just a matter of time before he won that first major. Rahm’s final three-round score of 202 last year was 2 shots better than anyone else in the field. Unfortunately for him, it came on the heels of an opening-round 75. But the way he played the final three rounds, giving himself a chance to win, coupled with how well he should score on the par-5s, make him my top pick to win the green jacket in his third trip to Augusta.
Patrick Cantlay (60-1): Cantlay hasn’t truly contended in a major, but he’s also a better, more experienced player now. One of the better iron players on tour, he should have a chance this week, as he typically hits a ton of greens in regulation. Fifteen of the last 19 Masters winners were in the top-six that week in greens in regulation (GIR).