We did not escape September with a successful Prime-time Parlay — again, hitting this is hard! — but hope of riches springs eternal in October.
Once again, Prime-time Parlay is all about the best games: Thursday, Sunday and Monday’s prime-time games and the top 1 p.m. ET and 4 p.m. ET Sunday matchups. Straight-up picks, but you gotta hit all five. Then we calculate how much you’d earn for the parlay, utilizing Westgate’s money lines.
Via ESPN’s Football Power Index, Prime-time Parlay tells you the analytics-based predictions for the meetings of greatest national import, offering the smart picks for the games you’ll be watching. (All NFL point spreads and money lines can be found here).
Total payout for Week 5 Prime-time Parlay (selecting all FPI-projected winners in five games): $539.46 on $100 wager
Money line: Patriots -550
FPI projection: Patriots win by 10.0 points
Stomp-On-The-Patriots season might have even been shorter than usual this year. FPI did lose a little faith for a moment there, but after New England beat up the Dolphins our model thinks the Patriots are the second-best team in football again (after the Rams). — Seth Walder
Money line: Steelers -165
FPI projection: Steelers win by 3.0 points
If anything, FPI might be giving the Falcons’ defense too much credit. It doesn’t explicitly know about all of the team’s injuries — from Deion Jones to Keanu Neal to (for now) Grady Jarrett — which could spell doom for Atlanta. — Seth Walder
Money line: Eagles -170
FPI projection: Eagles win by 3.5 points
Our model thought Minnesota would have the best defense in football in the preseason. Not so. So far, the Vikings rank as the seventh-worst in defensive efficiency. FPI likes Philly in this one despite not giving up on the Minnesota D, so another poor performance from the unit would just be gravy. — Seth Walder
Money line: Texans -180
FPI projection: Texans win by 2.9 points
It hasn’t been the smoothest ride, but Deshaun Watson has proven his rookie year was no fluke. After four games, he ranks ninth in Total QBR — giving FPI faith that Houston ought to be favored at home. — Seth Walder
Money line: Saints -275
FPI projection: Saints win by 4.2 points
New Orleans is dropping back to pass 66 percent of the time, which would be the team’s highest rate since 2013. And why not? Drew Brees ranks third in QBR and has unstoppable weapons in Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to throw to. — Seth Walder
Final Parlay: Patriots, Steelers, Eagles, Texans, Saints
For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.