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Bob PockrassNASCAR
The 12 drivers in the second round of the playoffs probably feel better about their chances of advancing than in the first round.
Seriously. That’s the way some of them think.
There’s good reason for that: The upcoming races at Dover International Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway and Kansas Speedway are very distinct in that drivers have a good feeling where they can run well.
They all see Talladega as a race where they could lose a lot of points or earn a win. But considering the four Stewart-Haas cars and the three Penske cars seem to have been the best in recent restrictor-plate stops, that’s seven cars among the 12 remaining (and throw in a strong Chase Elliott as far as restrictor-plate speed and that’s eight of the 12).
The Kansas race will feature those who are best at 1.5-mile tracks (especially ones that have been recently repaved) while the round opens at a fast 1-mile Dover track that often requires rhythm and precision rather than the best setup or motor.
“The first round we were worried about it just because some places we struggle and some of the unknowns,” said Charlotte winner Ryan Blaney. “But second round, hopefully it goes well. It’s just good tracks for us.
“That’s really all we were talking about is places we have run decent at. Even though it’s a wild card like Talladega, I think our speedway stuff is OK, so hopefully we can just stay out of trouble there.”
Here’s a look at the 12 remaining drivers in the playoffs:
Three (wins) and in — those with at least three victories this season
Kyle Busch
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota
Crew chief: Adam Stevens
First-round finish: 3rd
First-round wins: 1
Playoff points: 55 (1st)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 35th-13th-10th
Why he will advance: Dude, he’s Kyle Busch and he has won seven times this year. Bank on him winning one of the next three, and if not, his playoff points will allow him to breathe at Kansas.
Why he won’t: Don’t know why he wouldn’t advance. If he doesn’t, ask me then.
Busch says: “You strive to go out there and win every single time you’re on the race track but, if you put yourself in a bad spot or try or push too hard or something like that and you get yourself out of whack and crashed or something like that, obviously that’s going to be way worse for you so you have to be mindful of those situations and you have to pick and choose your battles.”
Kevin Harvick
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford
Crew chief: Rodney Childers
First-round finish: 2nd
First-round wins: 0
Playoff points: 50 (2nd)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 1st-4th-1st
Why he will advance: Have you been watching this year? Unless he blows a tire somewhere, he should be good.
Why he won’t: Anything can happen in a three-race stretch and a lot of anything would have to go wrong.
Harvick says: “You see the evolution of things getting better, and really from an organization standpoint. When you start seeing the results of all four cars, that’s when you know that the processes and the things that you’re doing are working well.”
Martin Truex Jr.
Team: Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota
Crew chief: Cole Pearn
First-round finish: 1st
First-round wins: 0
Playoff points: 38 (3rd)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 4th-26th-2nd
Why he will advance: He opened the first round with back-to-back third-place finishes. There’s no reason to think he won’t be top-3 at Dover and Kansas.
Why he won’t: When the team’s fate is closing at the end of the year, maybe fate won’t be on your side when it seems it should.
Truex says: “It would have been really fun to take it to victory lane [at Charlotte], but at the end of the day it wasn’t meant to be and we’ll move on to the next one.”
Brad Keselowski
Team: Team Penske No. 2 Ford
Crew chief: Paul Wolfe
First-round finish: 5th
First-round wins: 1
Playoff points: 25 (4th)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 6th-33rd-14th
Why he will advance: Keselowski has been one of the great clutch performers in recent years. He didn’t win three consecutive races recently because he can’t drive when it matters.
Why he won’t: If he doesn’t win or score good points at Talladega, he might not have the pure speed at Dover and Kansas to make up for it.
Keselowski says: “[Wrecking at Charlotte] doesn’t hurt us, but it doesn’t mean we didn’t want to win.”
The logjam in the middle — two points separate these four
Clint Bowyer
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford
Crew chief: Billy Scott
First-round finish: 9th
First-round wins: 0
Playoff points: 15 (5th)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 2nd-31st-15th
Why he will advance: He has four top-10s in his past six races, and if he can get a little more consistent, that could allow him, if he doesn’t win, to make it out on points.
Why he won’t: His third-place finish at Charlotte was his best in his past 13 races. While top-10s could get him out, just a little more speed, a little more up-front action, could be needed.
Bowyer says: “I was worried about the round of 16 because of the tracks, but in the next round we have some of our better tracks. I’m confident about the next three races.”
Joey Logano
Team: Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Crew chief: Todd Gordon
First-round finish: 6th
First-round wins: 0
Playoff points: 14 (T-6th)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 13th-1st-3rd
Why he will advance: He has three top-5s in his past six races. At these next three races, a top-5 finish for him wouldn’t be a surprise as they all have been good tracks for him. Plus, he has a team that is used to the playoff grind.
Why he won’t: They still aren’t among the fastest three cars week in and week out, and that means this team has to execute well.
Logano says: “I feel like we can fight through these next few weeks and get to the next round and keep forging forward. We have to stay consistent. … I feel like it’s going to be tight. I don’t feel like we’re where we were a couple years ago, where we felt really solid about it, but I feel decent enough that we can transfer.”
Kurt Busch
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 41 Ford
Crew chief: Billy Scott
First-round finish: 4th
First-round wins: 0
Playoff points: 14 (T-6th)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 5th-2nd-8th
Why he will advance: Busch had eight consecutive top-10s entering the playoffs and then had finishes of 21st and 18th to open the first round — and still advanced easily. He’s doing what he has to do to advance, and he is capable of winning any of the next three races.
Why he won’t: This team is poised to perform, but any hiccups and there will be people wondering if the fact Busch is probably leaving after this year for Ganassi that this team has lost just a pinch of focus.
Busch says: “I’m more confident in Dover and Talladega and Kansas. We tested Kansas [last] week. … It’s been busy, but that’s what it’s all about when it’s playoff time.”
Ryan Blaney
Team: Wood Brothers Racing No. 12 Ford
Crew chief: Jeremy Bullins
First-round finish: 7th
First-round wins: 1
Playoff points: 13 (8th)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 8th-18th-37th
Why he will advance: As Blaney says, he’s good at these tracks. And he has all the momentum after winning at the Charlotte road course.
Why he won’t: He hasn’t strung together three consecutive top-10s in the past 21 races. That type of inconsistency could doom him.
Blaney says: “There’s some good tracks there for us. Dover, we always run pretty decent at. Talladega, our speedway cars are pretty good, and then Kansas has been one of our best race tracks for sure, especially in the Cup Series. I’m looking forward to the second round.”
Rally hunters — these drivers need to gain points or win to make round of eight
Chase Elliott
Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Crew chief: Alan Gustafson
First-round finish: 8th
First-round wins: 0
Playoff points: 8 (9th)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 12th-3rd-12th
Why he will advance: Hendrick has improved on its speed. Elliott was fourth at Richmond and he has led laps in six of the past 12 races. Plus he has been through this pressure before, while some of the others (Almirola, Bowman) have not.
Why he won’t: He has five finishes of 29th or worse this year. He can’t afford another one.
Elliott says: “I am just glad we are moving on and I am looking forward to the next three because there are some good tracks for us.”
Kyle Larson
Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 1 Chevrolet
Crew chief: Chad Johnston
First-round finish: 11th
First-round wins: 0
Playoff points: 6 (10th)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 10th-40th-4th
Why he will advance: Larson has had the speed all year, just not the wins. And if you watched the end of the Charlotte race, maybe fate is on his side this year.
Why he won’t: With his points position, he probably can’t afford a crash or a blown engine at Talladega.
Larson says: “There are some good tracks coming up for us aside from Talladega. Anybody can be good there. But we’ll see how it goes.”
Aric Almirola
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 10 Ford
Crew chief: John Klausmeier
First-round finish: 12th
First-round wins: 0
Playoff points: 1 (11th)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 11th-7th-9th
Why he will advance: Did you see how he almost won the Daytona 500? And if he repeats his performance from earlier this year at those three tracks, he probably advances.
Why he won’t: Maybe he used up all of his good fortune at the Charlotte road course with spins and accidents and still making it in.
Almirola says: “I’m really proud and really blessed to be in this position. We’ve got a great opportunity here with Stewart-Haas Racing and moving on to the round of 12. It doesn’t matter how pretty it was, we’re moving on to the round of 12 and we’re going to go give them hell at Dover.”
Alex Bowman
Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 88 Chevrolet
Crew chief: Greg Ives
First-round finish: 10th
First-round wins: 0
Playoff points: 0 (12th)
2018 finishes at Dover, Talladega and Kansas: 23rd-8th-18th
Why he will advance: Few expected him to advance into the second round, so this team has no pressure.
Why he won’t: He hasn’t won a stage this year. We saw what that meant in the end for Jimmie Johnson in points in the first round.
Bowman says: “Glad to make it in. A lot of people said we were going to be one of the guys out and to make it in and prove some of those guys wrong, definitely makes me feel good.”