NEW YORK — Serena Williams vs. Venus Williams.
At the US Open.
Yes, there will be some eyeballs on this one when the two take the court Friday. As the tennis world waits, our experts gathered to answer the most important questions surrounding this latest Williams family gathering at a Grand Slam.
1. Serena Williams played two night matches. Venus Williams played two day matches. Given the attention to the heat this week in Queens, how much of an advantage is it for Serena? A little? A lot? Not at all?
Peter Bodo: The heat and humidity during the day are one thing, length of match is another. Serena has lost just nine games in four sets; Venus lost 22 in five sets. Venus was on court for two hours longer (4:17 total vs. 2:17), which is like having played an entire additional, longer-than-average singles match. The only saving grace for Venus was that the points in her match with Camila Giorgi were relatively quick, owing to both women liking to give the ball a ride. Add the detail that Venus is more than a year older and it’s clear: Advantage Serena.
Bonnie D. Ford: I don’t think this will be a factor. Venus certainly had to exert herself in the first round but didn’t show any ill effects in her next match. The absolute temperature and humidity may have been higher for Venus’ match against Giorgi on Wednesday than Serena’s against Carina Witthoeft, but she also would have gotten back to her hotel to start recovering far earlier than Serena, who probably arrived in Manhattan close to midnight. Having been in Ashe myself Wednesday night, I can tell you the air was heavy and oppressive even at 8 and 9 p.m. It will be considerably cooler next time they play and, fact is, both of them have decades of experience in dealing with varying conditions.
D’Arcy Maine: Between the extreme heat of the day matches, and the higher quality of opponent Venus has faced thus far, it feels like Serena definitely has somewhat of an advantage. Venus needed three sets to beat former US Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova on Monday, and then battled with Camila Giorgi, who at No. 40 in the world rankings is the top player either has played so far. Neither of Serena’s matches were close, and barely lasted over an hour under the significantly-cooler night sky. She is likely feeling as well rested as possible at this point. Also, while she’s certainly not showed any symptoms of it so far in Queens, Venus does have Sjogren’s syndrome, an autoimmune disease which can cause fatigue and muscle and joint pain, and one has to wonder how the conditions have affected her in that regard.
Aishwarya Kumar: If Serena was facing anybody else who’d played two day matches in the scorching heat in Flushing Meadows, I’d have said she has an advantage going in. But Venus has done this for decades now — she’s played in similar conditions in the past and knows how to adapt to extreme heat. She also didn’t seem worried during the news conference after her second-round win. She said it was tough out there, but she was staying hydrated. According to Melissa Leber, US Open’s player physician, it’s much easier for players to go from playing in extreme heat to cooler weather — and the temperature is expected to drop into the 70s on Friday. Keeping in mind Venus’ experience and her ability to adapt, Serena does not have any heat-related advantage going into the game.
1:30
Serena Williams believes her sister Venus Williams is always her toughest opponent and that whoever wins in their US Open match they will root for each other.
2. What does Venus need to do to win this match?
Bodo: The most important shot for Venus will be return of serve, especially if Serena is having a good night at the notch. The big advantage Venus has going in is Serena’s lack of match play. Kid sister simply isn’t accustomed to moving around the court, point after point, grinding out games and sets. If Venus can get Serena on her back foot from the get-go and engage her in rallies, lack of match play and perhaps even fitness could become issues.
Ford: Start fast if Serena starts slow, as she often has a tendency to do; return well; and want it more. Neither will be able to count on the crowd to pump them up. I’m sure the sisters will get a huge ovation at the start and end of the evening, but crowd energy during their matches is usually subdued — it’s an awkward situation where most fans don’t know who to root for. This may sound ridiculously basic, but Venus would simply have to compete better to win.
Maine: Exactly what she did during their last meeting at Indian Wells in March. Sure, that was Serena’s first tournament back after childbirth, and she was more than a little rusty, but, despite all the hype and emotions, Venus stayed focused and got the job done in straight sets. During that match, Venus had 19 unforced errors, compared to Serena’s 41, and dominated from start to finish. When at her peak, Serena is unquestionably the better player, but she’s not quite back to that form just yet, and Venus knows her weaknesses and vulnerabilities better than anyone. If she can exploit them on Friday, she definitely could take the W.
Kumar: Venus will have to find a way to break Serena early on in the first set to gain confidence. But that alone will not be enough. Serena is known to up her game when the need arises. Venus will have to minimize unforced errors along the baseline and get Serena to move around the court more. When Serena missed a couple of backhand shots in her second round, she was frustrated. It is important for Venus to get Serena to feel the heat early on and then capitalize on it with solid serving games.
3. How disappointing is this that these two are meeting this early in the US Open?
Bodo: Well, it’s no more disappointing than when they met in semifinals back in the glory days, when it was almost a sure bet that the winner of that match would probably take the title. That was almost worse because, let’s face it, for these two it was always about holding up the trophy at the end of the tournament. Now a Williams tournament win is no certainty by any means. But there’s also this, even though only one of the sisters benefits from it: Once the match is out of the way, the winner doesn’t have to deal with the stress — and incessant attention — that precedes these meetings.
Ford: I don’t think you can ever say it’s a disappointing occasion when these two meet at any stage of a Slam. Seeing the photos of them as teenagers here 20 years ago emphasizes the breathtaking sweep of their history. Since every match could be their last, every match should be appreciated. The only “disappointment” is that one of them will be out of the draw afterwards.
Maine: So disappointing. Don’t get me wrong, it’s always a treat for tennis fans to get to see these two meet, no matter when or where, but it just would feel so much more satisfying with more on the line. As they both have discussed at length how difficult it is, mentally and emotionally, to play one another, it is a shame they have to do this in just the third round. Both sisters have played well so far, and have the potential to go deep in this tournament, so it seems genuinely unfair for one of them to have to go home this early.
Kumar: It’s definitely disappointing. Both Serena and Venus are playing high-quality tennis. Serena is moving much better than she was at Wimbledon and Venus is finding ways to surprise her opponents late in the match. An all-Williams semifinal would have made for a great spectacle during prime time at Arthur Ashe. Still, Serena vs. Venus is always a big deal. There’s history, emotions, fandom and a lot of memories. As Venus pointed out, the last time they played each other in a Slam was at the Australian Open and it was two against one — Serena was pregnant during the match. So, it will be an exciting encounter nevertheless.
4. Who wins?
Bodo: I’m picking Venus to win to win because of the continuity she’s been able to have in her career, and the emotional boost her two previous wins have provided in what has been a challenging year (she’s won only two Grand Slam matches before the US Open). She’s a reasonable 21-13 over the past 52 weeks and has trained and played consistently. Her 1-2 punch of serve and forehand from the midcourt is a formidable weapon that will put a lot of pressure on Serena, and her fitness will enable to stay in rallies when Serena is serving.
Ford: I hate predictions, but … Serena 6-4, 2-6, 6-3, with a match that will be tighter than the score indicates.
Maine: Ser, er, Venus, no, Serena. My answer very likely will change about 700 times before the match, but right now, I’m picking the younger Williams sister in three sets — 7-5, 3-6, 6-2. Despite being just her fourth tournament back since maternity leave, Serena exceeded just about everyone’s expectations at Wimbledon, advancing all the way to the final. Knowing how she shines brightest on the big stages, and with the confidence she gained during the last Grand Slam, it feels like Serena should be able to put this one together — in front of an adoring home crowd — and beat her older sister.
Kumar: My gut says Serena, but my gut has always said Serena whenever these two play against each other. Serena looks more comfortable on the court — there is a fluidity to her movements and she looks unstoppable. Venus, on the other hand, had to dig deep to pull off a victory in her first round against Russia’s Svetlana Kuznetsova. Granted, Kuznetsova is a former US Open champion and is a much tougher opponent than the two Serena had to face. And their head-to-head does stand at 17-12 Serena (which includes 10-5 in majors) in their 29 previous meetings.
5. How far does the winner of this match advance in the US Open?
Bodo: That’s an impossible question to answer with any real conviction because what the other players in the draw do at the same time will impact things. But this much is for sure: Defending champion Sloane Stephens, a potential semifinal opponent, may be the biggest stumbling block of all. To get to her, Venus would probably have to go through either former finalist and No. 8 seed Karolina Pliskova or tricky Ashleigh Barty. Venus might find herself facing an on-fire Angelique Kerber — who defeated Serena in the recent Wimbledon final — if she makes it to the final.
Ford: I would see Serena reaching at least the semifinals. She gains momentum through tournaments. There still aren’t many women in the draw who can beat her when she gets to the second week.
Maine: As if facing each other in the third round wasn’t bad enough luck, the winner of this match would have next faced No. 1 seed Simona Halep had she not been eliminated in the first round. However, now it will be either Kaia Kanepi, who pulled off the upset against Halep, or Rebecca Peterson, both significantly easier opponents. A potential meeting with Karolína Pliskova could loom in the quarterfinals, and a clash with defending champion Sloane Stephens (if she can get past a resurgent Victoria Azarenka) in the semis is possible. Despite these incredibly tough tests, it’s hard to ever bet against Serena. I’m feeling bold here, so I’m predicting Serena Williams takes home her 24th Grand Slam singles trophy next week. (Why not, right?)
Kumar: If Serena takes out Venus, she will have a fairly easy path to the semifinal. She could meet Kaia Kanepi, who took out No. 1 seed Simona Halep, and Karolina Pliskova en route to the semifinal. And my eye is on the semifinal. It will be yet another all-American semifinal if Sloane Stephens holds up her end of the bargain. The defending champion will face the six-time champion for a spot in the finals. It’s hard to predict who will come out on top in this encounter, but if I had to bet, it’d be Serena, because of the consistency of her game at the moment. She is serving well and is almost impossible to break. Will she make it beyond the semifinal? Yes. And in the final, there is a good chance she will meet her Wimbledon 2018 final opponent Angelique Kerber. My bet is on Serena to win it all.