UFC 226 features a real, bonafide superfight, as heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic looks to defend his title against light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier.
Miocic (18-2), of Cleveland, is already the longest-reigning heavyweight champion in UFC history. Cormier (20-1) is considered one of the greatest fighters of all time, his only professional loss coming against Jon Jones.
How will this UFC heavyweight title fight play out Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas? ESPN asked some of the brightest minds in the game for their breakdowns and predictions.
Mark Henry, New Jersey striking coach
I know Stipe was a wrestler and no one has really shot on him all that much, but Cormier’s wrestling is on another level, man. I think if Cormier uses the wrestling and the cardio — I think Stipe’s cardio kind of waned in that Francis Ngannou fight. That might have been a nervous thing, knowing any punch can take you out. But if his cardio looks like it did in that fight, that’s in Cormier’s favor.
If Stipe keeps it standing, I’d say Stipe wins. But if Cormier uses the wrestling a little more and can get him down, I’d say Cormier has the edge because of his ground [game] and the way his cardio can go all day.
Whoever can use their game plan more will win.
Izzy Martinez, Izzy Style Wrestling
I’m going to predict Cormier to win this fight. I think Miocic, one of his biggest assets is his durability, but also his wrestling. He can neutralize some of those big guys. I don’t know if he’s got the speed and the leverage to neutralize Cormier on the ground. And if he does take [Cormier] to the floor, it’s going to be hard for him to keep him there.
And if Miocic can’t wrestle, I just don’t see how he can keep the pace of Cormier for five rounds. Going with a heavyweight can actually be easier than going with 205-ers.
I’ve always thought when facing Cormier, you’ve got to be aware of what he’s good at but not panic when the fight goes there. If Cormier gets Miocic to the fence, [Miocic] can’t panic and waste a lot of energy. Because Cormier’s whole game is wearing you down — and once he’s worn you down, he beats the hell out of you.
And most importantly, you have to keep Cormier off your head. If you let Cormier reach in with that left hand and start grabbing your neck like that, it’s going to be a long night for you. It’s tough to move your feet, keep distance and do anything you’re good at when you’re basically stuck in someone’s striking range.
I believe it will go all five rounds and Cormier’s experience in a real war will show. Stipe has had a nice run of first-round finishes, but you’ve got to be able to go into super-deep waters if you’re going to face Cormier in a five-round fight.
I think Stipe is pretty impressive, but believe it or not, I don’t feel he’s the most well-rounded fighter. Cormier is one of the best wrestlers in the heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions, and I feel like Cormier is going to walk away with this one.
If he can close the distance and get into some clinch work, make it a dirty fight, dirty boxing against the cage, I think he’ll have a lot of success. Not only with the strikes, but his wrestling will come into play. In a five-round fight, I take Cormier’s cardio. It’s such a b—- when you get taken down and you’re working to get back up. I don’t care how good of shape you are in — if you get taken down five times in a fight, by the sixth time you’re working up, you feel terrible.
I feel like Cormier can score six or seven takedowns in this fight. It goes the distance, and Cormier wins a unanimous decision.
I have to go with Stipe. They both have good wrestling. Cormier, I feel, has the better wrestling, and Stipe has the better striking. Cormier leaves quite a few openings. He leans out over his rear hip from the orthodox stance. It leaves him open to left kicks, left uppercuts, left body shots. That was the same reason I thought Luke Rockhold would get caught against Yoel Romero [in February]. It’s the same reason Alistair Overeem got caught by Francis Ngannou [last December]. Hanging out towards that rear hip.
But hanging out over that rear hip will actually invite the right cross, too, which invites Cormier to time a takedown. So, it comes down to who executes the proper technique at the right time. I’ll go with Stipe.
Brandon Gibson, JacksonWink MMA
This matchup comes down to who’s going to be able to control the range. Stipe is a brilliant MMA boxer. He’s very good at not backing up, not backtracking against opponents. Cormier has the most explosive forward pressure we’ve ever seen at light heavyweight or heavyweight. Brilliant head rolls. Brilliant left hook. Overhands. And you never know when he’s going to change levels for a high crotch or double leg.
For Stipe, I think pressure and feints will back Cormier up. Cormier always has a tendency to parry hard on things — that was something we [Jon Jones’ team] looked for when we fought him. I also think going to the body is key. Cormier is very hard to do damage to, but one of the things we had success with was going to the body. In the second fight, I thought the body work we did was what opened up the head kick that finished the fight.
Cormier has a brilliant left-hand collar-tie. That’s how he controls his opponents. I believe it will work at heavyweight. Stipe is not the biggest heavyweight. Cormier is probably walking around in the mid-230s. I see Cormier outworking Stipe for five rounds, finding great boxing exchanges, controlling the clinch. Cormier is a beast on the ground and has underrated submissions. I’m predicting Cormier wins and becomes a two-weight champion.
Jimmy Gifford, Las Vegas striking coach
I love Stipe in the fight, to be honest. You’ve seen Cormier walking in and pressuring guys. He did it to Jones in the second fight, before he got stopped. That pressure was really starting to wear on Jones. Cormier is a guy who wants to make it a grind — but I won’t be surprised if Stipe puts him out.
I think Stipe will keep his distance, use his jab. I know Cormier has fought at heavyweight, but this is a different guy. He’s got speed and athleticism, along with the power. We all know he can wrestle a bit, so he won’t be a fish out of water if it turns into a wrestling match. Obviously, he’s not the level of Cormier, but he’s sufficient enough to survive in the clinch and maybe get off the ground.
Cormier is going to walk into some punches. He’s got to pressure him and try to get to the inside. He’s dominated guys like Frank Mir by putting them along the fence, but I just think Stipe is too strong for that. He’s got really good footwork. You hear stories about him being a Golden Gloves boxer coming up, and that storyline will come into play. He has the foundation of a basic boxer, with the jab and straight right. He’s technically sound. A lot of MMA guys will throw awkward punches. Stipe is pretty vanilla, but he gets it done by sticking to the basics.
John Kavanagh, SBG Ireland
Cormier has experience with heavyweights and obviously trains with [former UFC heavyweight champion] Cain Velasquez, but I think Stipe is a different animal. Bigger, stronger and can match him technically. He’s coming off a great win. I’m a Cormier fan, but if I had to bet, I’d think Stipe late in the fight with the stoppage.
Trevor Wittman, Grudge Training Center
Cormier has impressed me so much with his striking. I love everything he’s been doing. You saw the emotion he showed after the second fight with Jon Jones — most guys kind of try to contain that, but I think he is so competitive in what he does, he believes that he can make anything happen. I thought he looked really good in that second Jones fight.
Stipe is the most consistent guy out there with the heavyweights. What he did to Francis was incredible. For him to go out and find that hole in his game and do what he did was absolutely amazing. Stipe has good wrestling; Daniel has world-class wrestling. It’s all about who can apply what they want to do. I think the consistency of Stipe will stand out.
I see Cormier doing it. I think he was an amazing heavyweight when he was there. One of his most impressive fights was when he threw around Josh Barnett [May 2012]. Stipe is going to be a little bigger and has a little more reach, but I think Cormier has enough to keep him guessing — whether it’s striking or that high crotch takedown.
If you’re Stipe, use your length and footwork. I don’t think you want to be in the clinch with him. He always finds a way to get into those hips and lift you up. You want to stay out of that territory. Most likely, I see a five-round decision. It’s not an easy fight to pick.
Firas Zahabi, Tristar MMA
I hate to go against Cormier, but Miocic is bigger. And I know Cormier has fought heavyweights before, but Stipe is too smart right now. I believe Cormier can win, but it’s one of those 55-45 in favor of Stipe. And at the end of the day, I see Stipe running away with it on that particular night.
Of course, Stipe wants to keep it standing. It’s going to be very hard to take him down. I believe it’s going to be a standup affair, and I think Stipe’s standup is just better. I know Cormier has only ever lost to Jon Jones, but he’s never fought anyone like Miocic.
Miocic adapts very well in the fight. He’s a very intelligent fighter, who changes his tactics as the fight goes on. In the heavyweight division, if you don’t adapt, you get knocked out. He’s smart about staying safe and staying careful. That’s why I think he’s already set the record for most UFC heavyweight title defenses. I think he will probably take that streak to four or five, and that record will stand for a long time.
Duke Roufus, Roufusport
Daniel has shown he’s great at heavyweight, but I just think Stipe is too big, too agile. He’s not the same wrestling pedigree as Daniel, but he’s a very good MMA wrestler. Daniel is a heck of a fighter, but at the end of the day, he’s a small heavyweight. Stipe, there’s a really cool picture I took when he and CM Punk were on the same card — he has an underrated wingspan.
The patience he showed against Ngannou was brilliant. Daniel is a great 205-pound champion, but this is a new era at heavyweight. These big, athlete guys are pretty scary. Stipe is a big guy, and he moves his head and feet well. You saw how he was slipping punches, not getting caught by Ngannou’s bombs. It was impressive. You always see technique in the Octagon, but Stipe has underrated defensive skill. And that’s crucial at heavyweight, because it’s so much easier for these guys to knock each other out.
I think Stipe will win, maybe by knockout. He’s a big hitter.