LE CASTELLET, France — With the absence of rain, the French Grand Prix is a nailed on one-stop race. None of the compounds showed serious signs of degradation, meaning drivers are likely to favour the ultra-soft for as long as possible and limit time on the super-soft, which is 0.5s per lap slower on race pace.
Pirelli expects drivers starting on the ultra-soft to go to lap 25 before switching to the ultra-soft, but if degradation can be kept under control then expect that stint to stretch as far as lap 35 or 40. The front tyres are likely to suffer more through the sweeping corners in the final sector, especially if it’s hot, so teams will look to ratchet up the front wing ahead of the race in order to do combat that.
Mercedes and Red Bull opted to run the super-soft in Q2, meaning they will start on the harder of the two raceable compounds while Ferrari will start on the ultra-soft. Starting on the super-soft could allow for an even longer stint on the ultra-soft at the end of the race as the fuel level comes down and the stress on the tyres is reduced. It could also mean they are on a better tyre for attempting to overtake towards the end of the race.
The flip side to the Mercedes/Red Bull strategy is that they will be on a tyre with less grip at the start. That should offer Sebastian Vettel (from third on the grid) and Kimi Raikkonen (from sixth on the grid) a better getaway on the long run down to Turn 1 and, combined with a bit of slip streaming, could see the Ferraris gain a place on the first lap.
However, Friday’s long-run data suggests Mercedes has a 0.5s advantage over both Ferrari and Red Bull in long-run pace, underlining the impressive pace of the W09 at this circuit and making for a clear favourite.