A thoroughly deserved victory for Daniel Ricciardo in Monaco made it two wins apiece for Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari through six races in 2018. Who will gain the ascendancy in Canada?
Focus on: Time for Mercedes to take control?
If the characteristics of the Monte Carlo street circuit favoured Red Bull then the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is surely a race where Mercedes can once again flex its muscles.
The tight and low-speed nature of Monaco makes it an anomaly on the calendar and while Mercedes didn’t exactly struggle (P3 and P5) the W09 will be much more suited to Montreal’s high-speed track.
In recent years the Silver Arrows have dominated in Canada with Lewis Hamilton taking wins in every race since 2015, two of those coming in one-twos for the team. Another victory looked a certainty in 2014 before both Hamilton and Nico Rosberg suffered MGU-K issues on consecutive laps, allowing Daniel Ricciardo to snatch the lead for his maiden win Formula One.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect to this year’s Canadian Grand Prix is where exactly Ferrari finds itself. Last year, Sebastian Vettel was three tenths of a second off Hamilton in the race for pole position but was forced to pit early in the race after making contact with Verstappen on the opening lap. The German stormed back through the field to finish fourth and, with what’s clear to be an improved package, could very well take the challenge to Mercedes this year.
In need of a win: Max Verstappen
Isn’t it amazing how quickly a reputation can change in Formula One?
It seems like just yesterday Max Verstappen was being hailed as the next Michael Schumacher or Ayrton Senna after winning his debut race for Red Bull in Spain at just 18 years of age. A year later he had a further two wins to his name and had many talking up his chances of actually winning the world championship in 2018.
But things haven’t been going so smooth for the Dutchman since the first race of the season in Australia. In fact, Verstappen has been the culprit in a collision at every one of the six races this year to now leave people questioning whether he can race and keep it clean.
After his latest crash during FP3 in Monaco, it’s at the point where the only way he can shake the criticism is by winning again and reminding the world of his tremendous talent.
In need of points: Sergey Sirotkin
We could continue naming Romain Grosjean as someone who must score points but the Frenchman isn’t the only driver heading into the seventh race of the season with zero points to his name.
Sergey Sirotkin has also failed to score this season and sits dead last in the championship standings as Grosjean’s 13th place finish in Bahrain edges out his 14th place in Spain.
However, the Canadian Grand Prix is likely to provide Sirotkin with a great opportunity to score his first points of the season and his young career. Williams has claimed points in Montreal every year since 2014, including podiums for Valtteri Bottas in both 2015 and 2016.
Tyre talk
Available compounds: Super-soft, Ultra-soft and Hyper-soft
We haven’t even unpacked from the #MonacoGP and it’s already time to pack our bags for Montreal! Here are the #Fit4F1 sets we’re bringing with us to the #CanadianGP! More on: https://t.co/yJxO8NgkiY pic.twitter.com/UAnndJhxss
— Pirelli Motorsport (@pirellisport) May 29, 2018
Pirelli’s pointers:
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The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is a semi-permanent facility infrequently used outside the grand prix, so track evolution from Friday to Sunday tends to be particularly high.
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Canada is about traction and braking: longitudinal rather than lateral forces. It’s one of the most demanding circuits on brakes all year and if brakes overheat, this can affect tyres, too.
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There’s very little run-off area, so safety cars — influencing race strategy — are common.
Minimum starting pressures: Front 21psi, rear 19.5psi
Weather forecast
Are we in for a wet weather race? The forecast for Montreal has rain a 40 percent chance of appearing on Sunday which would certainly spice things up.
Friday and Saturday are both expected to be overcast but very little chance of rain. It’s also worth remembering that weather in Montreal is extremely unpredictable during this time of the year.
Betting
Hamilton has history and the bookmakers on his side this weekend. The four-time world champion is 11/8 to take his third win of the season while a Vettel win is paying 15/8 and a Ricciardo win 8/1.
Perhaps the greatest value is with Valtteri Bottas — who is still searching for his first win of the season — at 15/2. The Finn has been impressive in 2018 and has a strong record in Canada.
ESPN’s prediction
It’s hard to see Hamilton and Mercedes not continuing their dominance in Canada. It may just be a race for second place.
Winner: Lewis Hamilton
Bonus prediction: Max Verstappen to have a crash-free weekend